What will Israel do with Syria? Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and President-elect Erdogan’s War: The United States and the Iraqi Resistance Network

For the past few weeks, I have been arguing that Israel has inflicted the equivalent of a Six Day War-level defeat on Iran and its resistance network, and this would have vast consequences. The Assad family took power in Syria in 1971 because of their defeat in the 1967 war. What goes around comes around.

However, President-elect Trump is striking a different tone. He took to social media over the weekend and said the U.S. should not be involved in the conflict in Syria.

There is a huge interest in the US. This is also a no-brainer. There is a correlation between the pro-democracy uprising in Iran and the uprising in Syria. In the short run, it is sure to trigger a power struggle between the moderates there — President Masoud Pezeshkian and his vice president, former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif — and the Revolutionary Guards hard-liners. We need to shape that struggle. The events in Syria and Iran have stripped Tehran of its identity. If he takes regime change off the table, the Iranians will have to choose between rushing for a nuclear bomb to save their regime or ridding themselves of the bomb in a deal with Trump. It is what Mr. Trump wanted to say, “We can not have nothing to do with this.”

Biggest known unknown: Who are the rebels who took over Syria and what do they really want? A pluralistic democracy, or an Islamic state? History shows that the hard-line Islamists win in these movements. But I am watching and hoping it will be otherwise.

It will depend on Syria restoring relative stability. Under Erdogan, the Turkish military has often operated in Syria against various Kurdish groups that Erdogan views as a potential threats to his rule. If Erdogan chooses to operate against Kurdish factions in Syria, that could undermine efforts to rebuild Syria.

For starters, he would like to shape a new government in Syria to his liking, said the Middle East Institute’s Gonul Tol, author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria.

Some changes are already apparent. Syrians who fled the country’s vicious civil war years ago are lining up at border crossings to return home. The country’s notorious prisons are now free of inmates after the gates opened. Syrians are speaking freely after decades of repressive rule.

The Islamic State in Syria has been defeated several times by the U.S. forces. About 900 U.S. troops remain to prevent a resurgence of the extremist organization. Most of the Americans are located in northeastern Syria, while others are in the far south.

President Biden said Sunday the U.S. would maintain this military presence. He called Assad’s downfall a moment of opportunity, saying the U.S. would work with Syrians as they formed a new government.

Mouaz Moustafa, with the Syrian Emergency Task Force, an American aid group, said the U.S. forces have supplied humanitarian assistance to displaced civilians in a barren area on Syria’s southern border.

“If you ask the Syrians if they love the American military, they will say they do, and that’s what you should ask them,” he said.

How Syria’s Revolution Could Reshape the Middle East: a Big Bad Thing for Tehran and its Proxies in the Region

Assad’s downfall is a big blow to Tehran. Persian Iran has spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the “axis of resistance.” They’ve been falling in a lot of places in the past year.

Iran was critical to Assad as he battled to stay in power during the country’s civil war that erupted in 2011. Ahead of rebel advances, the Revolutionary Guards pulled out of Syria last week. Syria was used to ship arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But now Assad is gone, Hezbollah has been greatly weakened by its war with Israel, and another Iranian proxy, Hamas in Gaza, has been devastated by its own war with Israel.

“Losing Syria will deal a huge blow to Iran and its proxies in the region. “I think that the leaders in Tehran are going through a lot right now, and I think that they are anxious about it.” “This is a moment where Iran’s regional strategy has been dealt a huge blow, and at a time when the regime at home is being questioned by millions of Iranians.”

As the regime of Assad collapsed, as Russia was preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, it only carried out a few airstrikes.

Russia places great value on the naval base and the air base it has on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. They are Russia’s only military bases in the Middle East, and now they are very much at risk. Russia’s previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels — and Syrian civilians — and they may not be inclined to let Russia keep that military presence.

Source: How Syria’s revolution could reshape the Middle East

Revelations of Damascus: The fate of the Golan Heights as viewed by Israel in the eyes of a new president

Israel was always at odds with Assad, but considered him the devil they knew. Israel acknowledged that Assad kept the frontier with Israel largely calm, even when the wider region was aflame.

Israel will face a Syria that could lead to a significant role for radical Islamic groups. Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon for the past year. There is a group in Syria that Israel is afraid of.

The strategic territory, which was captured from Syria in 1967, was then annexed by Israel. Regardless of who becomes the new president of Syria, Israel’s continued hold on the Golan Heights is certain to be at the core of the conflict.

We arrived in Damascus early Monday, after passing surreal scenes on the highway leading into the city from Lebanon. There are new relics of the government of Bashar al-Assad on the main highway to the Syrian capital.

Down the road from one Syrian military base, a convoy of 10 rebel vehicles sped down the highway. They drove four-wheel drive vehicles — their doors and windows caked in mud as makeshift camouflage — and Syrian military vehicles armed with rockets that once belonged to the al-Assad government.

The checkpoint staffed by Syrian intelligence and security agents who would question drivers and passengers for hours on end were empty. A body in a military uniform was found on the ground next to a pickup truck by a few miles from the border.

There were signs that lawlessness was present, and celebrations over the fall of Assad mixed with a lack of knowledge about what will happen next.

The duty free shop, located across the border from Lebanon, appeared to have been broken into with bottles, chocolates and bags of snacks strewn across the floor. Windshields and windows of dozens of abandoned cars along the roads were broken and their doors flung open.

Victor Dawli, 59, a young man in Old Damascus, walked with a tightrope

Nearby, one young man stood in front of an abandoned tank taking a selfie. After he picked up his toddler, he made him hold his finger up in the air and then told him to take a photo.

In Old Damascus, the centuries- old city center of winding, narrow alleys, Victor Dawli, 59, stood in his apartment doorway with a cigarette in his hand. The truck carrying the Syrian rebels passed by. One fighter, clutching his rifle and hunched over in the bed of the truck, nodded in response.

Many who supported the Assad government fear they will face reprisals from rebels and other people who were involved in the uprising.

As dawn broke on the second day of life in Syria without Mr. Assad, there was a sense of unease in the neighborhood, as people here walked a tightrope. Some people have kept their heads down and stayed indoors. Others like Mr. Dawli say they have secretly supported the rebels from the start of their offensive.

Mr. Dawli shouted “good morning, congratulations!” when he passed by his neighbor. The man gave him a blank stare, then hurried down a nearby alleyway.