North Korea’s first missile launch over South Korea, a violation of the Japanese’s sovereignty, and the question of its re-detection
The missile that flew over Japan was described by North Korea as a new type of intermediate-range weapon. Some foreign experts earlier said the missile was likely North Korea’s existing nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 missile, which can reach the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam. Kim, the professor, said that the missile tested was an improved version of the Hwasong-12 one with a distant target.
According to the South Korean and Japanese militaries, the missile was fired on a high angle, apparently to avoid reaching the neighbors’ territories, and traveled about 900 kilometers (560 miles) at a maximum altitude of 5,700 kilometers (3,500 miles) during an hourlong flight.
It was North Korea’s first missile launch in eight days and came five days after South Korea said it detected the North Korean drones, all presumed to be small surveillance drones, south of the border.
“North Korea is going to keep conducting missile tests until the current round of modernization is done,” Lewis said, adding that a nuclear test could come “anytime.”
Since there is no prior warning to avoid the area, aircraft and ships could be at risk of being hit by the missile.
And if the test had failed, causing the missile to fall short, it could have endangered major population areas. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said the missile flew over the Tohoku region, home to 8 million people.
South Korean and US fighter jets flew over the Korean Peninsula after North Korea launched a missile on October 4. , 2022 at an undisclosed location.
Lewis said it felt like a violation of the Japanese’s sovereignty. “If Russia fired a missile over Florida, we would have a fit.”
Robert Ward, senior fellow for Japanese Security Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed to the multiple security threats faced by Japan, from an aggressive Russia to its north and China to its south.
North Korea is preparing to test for peace and stability in South Korea, and the United States meets with South Korea at the High-Redshift Nuclear Force Base
“The North Koreans are in no mood to talk. They’re in the mood of testing and blowing things off,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said it’s also normal for North Korea to pause testing during the stormy summer and resume once weather improved in the fall.
The flight path on Tuesday could make for a better test, as stated by Joseph Dempsey, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The recent missile tests and threatening announcements from North Korea show the country may be close to making a nuclear device, Shin Beom-chul said on the radio station. Its last test was not long ago.
North Korea is working on acquiring its first military satellite. Earlier this month, North Korea said it used two old missiles as space launch vehicles to test a camera and other systems needed for a spy satellite and later released low-resolution satellite photos showing South Korean cities.
“This is probably an appetizer for the main course, which is yet to come,” he added. When North Korea has more confidence in their ICBM, they might fly one to full range over Japan.
The friendly relationship between the two countries might allow Kim to wait until after the Communist Party Congress of China happens, according to Lankov and Schuster.
The test was a threat to peace and stability on the peninsula, and a clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions that ban missile launches by North Korea, the JCS said.
The launch was called a dangerous and reckless decision by a spokeswoman for the White House. She said that the North Korean weapon was a long-range missile. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts on Tuesday to discuss “robust joint and international responses” and reinforced Washington’s “ironclad commitments” to the defense of its allies, Ms. Watson said.
You need to know what is going on in North Korea, why they are ramping up now and what the US can do to counter them.
President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in New York last month on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The two leaders discussed security cooperation in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat. The US, Japan and South Korea have all conducted anti-submarine exercises in recent weeks.
The US military said it was aware of the North Korean launch, which “does not pose an immediate threat to US personnel or territory, or to our allies,” according to a statement from the US Indo-Pacific Command.
“Such provocations, including drone incursions, appear excessive for deterrence and may be intended to scare South Korea into taking a softer policy. With Kim threatening mass produce of nuclear weapons, the Yoon administration is likely to increase South Korea’s defense capabilities and readiness.
Observers say Kim may use his country’s missile and nuclear tests to pressure the U.S. and other countries into lifting international sanctions placed on North Korea.
Propagation of a missile launch over the Sea of Japan by the North Korean government and the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic
The US Marines and Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force flew fighter jets over the Sea of Japan on Tuesday in response to the North Korean launch.
The four missiles fired at around noon flew about 130 kilometers away from the west coast of the country.
The statement from the South Korean Joint Chiefs said that the launch included four missiles. Missile systems of the Army can fly around 200 miles and are also known as Army Tactical Missile Systems.
Kirby told CNN that this was the first time they had done this in response to provocations by the North to make sure they could demonstrate their own capabilities.
There isn’t a plan for bringing North Korean to the negotiating table and pursuing denuclearization at the moment.
The aggressive acceleration in weapons testing has sparked alarm in the region, with the US, South Korea and Japan responding with missile launches and joint military exercises.
The Covid-19 pandemic pushed North Korea further into isolation. The already-impoverished country sealed its borders entirely, with foreign diplomats and aid workers fleeing en masse. The number of missile launches stayed low during this time, with four in 2020 and eight in 2021.
Kim declaring victory against Covid in August, as well as the new US administration focusing on shows of unity with South Korea, could suggest that it’s the right time.
“They’ve been unable to test for quite a few years due to political considerations, so I’d expect North Korean engineers and generals to be very eager to make sure their toys are going to work well,” said Andrei Lankov, a professor at South Korea’s Kookmin University.
They want the world to know that they exist and are working around the clock to develop both nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
In a statement Thursday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Pyongyang’s repeated launches “of ballistic missiles are a serious provocation that harms the peace and stability of not only the Korean Peninsula but also the international community.”
Schuster said the missile tests began in January, which is when he began reporting on what Russian President Vladimir Putin was doing. “Kim Jong Un is doing what he thinks he can get away with – he’s not expecting any kind of strong US reaction.”
The invasion of Ukraine may have increased Kim’s confidence because it demonstrated that if you have a Nuclear Weapons, you can have almost IMPUNITY. You are in trouble if you don’t have nuclear weapons.
Despite the quick military response by the US and its allies, experts say there is no alternative to North Korea’s weapons tests.
“The Americans sent the Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier. Lankov, who is an advisor to the US Department of Homeland Security, said that the missiles that the South Koreans are launching aren’t necessarily working well. “What is the impact of all these American aircraft carriers cruising around Korea? Absolutely nothing.
North Korea’s Missile Launch and a United States-South Korean Joint Training Training, as Announced by the Korea Central News Agency
The North lacks the widespread use of technology that not only facilitates economic and societal advances, but also provides critical windows and opportunities to glean information for the intelligence services of the US and its allies.
According to a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the leader himself is to blame for much of what North Korea does.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield condemned North Korea’s unprecedented missile launch, telling CNN the UN would be “putting pressure” on China and Russia to improve and enhance such sanctions.
The law demonstrated that North Korea would like to strengthen its relationships with China and Russia, said the professor.
The United States and South Korea conducted a joint training session on October 5, where an Army Tactical Missile System was fired.
Since March, when it reported the last missile launch in North Korea, no mention of launches has been made by KCNA, the state-run media.
This year’s meeting of the party elites is the most significant event on the Chinese political calendar, as it is expected to cement the status of Chinese leader Xi Jinping as the most powerful Chinese leader in decades.
Kim “depends too much on Chinese aid to keep his country afloat,” meaning he can’t afford to “do anything to detract from the Party Congress,” said Schuster. He won’t cause them problems because China can’t dictate to him what to do.
A professor at Ewha University in South Korea said that there are multiple reasons for North Korea to publish a missile story. Kim had not been seen in months, but his return provided a patriotic headline to coincide with the founding anniversary of the Workers’ Party.
“Through seven times of launching drills of the tactical nuclear operation units, the actual war capabilities … of the nuclear combat forces ready to hit and wipe out the set objects at any location and any time were displayed to the full,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.
North Korea had objected to those drills in statements issued this week, before it ramped up tensions on the peninsula with a barrage of weapons tests on Wednesday and Thursday.
In March, South Korea conducted its first successful launch of a solid-fuel rocket, and defense officials said Friday’s launch was a follow-up test to the earlier launch. Friday’s unannounced launch triggered a brief public scare of a UFO appearance or a North Korean missile firing in South Korea.
The North’s launch of a missile under the water was the first of its kind and it had previously test- launched missiles from a submarine.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea likely aims to diversify launch sites to make it difficult for its enemies to detect its missile liftoffs in advance and conduct preemptive strikes.
The detonation of the missile’s warhead, a dummy one at the set altitude, was confirmed by the authorities in North Korea when the weapon was flying above the sea target.
The North Koreans released a number of pictures on the launches. One of them showed Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju, both wearing ochre field jackets, frowning while covering their ears. Some observers say the image indicated Ri’s elevated political standing because it was likely the first time for her to observe a weapons launch with her husband.
“North Korea staged a very threatening provocation at a magnitude we’ve never seen before,” says Kim Jeong-dae, a former defense official and visiting professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.
Joint Task Force 70 Exercises with South Korean and Japanese Units – Results from a United States Aircraft and Aircraft Strike Group
These launches are more of a test of the units that will launch them than a test of the missiles themselves. That suggests these systems are deployed,” Lewis said on Twitter.
The biggest military installation outside the United States is Camp Humphreys in South Korea, where more than 36,000 US service members, civilian workers, contractors and family members are based.
The associate professor of international studies at the Ewha Woman’s University said there were multiple reasons for the announcement.
The missiles they have launched this year are part of military exercises. They are rehearsing for nuclear war. Panda said the big picture is this year.
“The KCNA report may also be harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field,” he said.
Kim further emphasized that Pyongyang will thoroughly monitor enemies’ military movements and “strongly take all military countermeasures” if needed, KCNA stated.
A US Navy aircraft carrier strike group participated in several days of bilateral and trilateral exercises with South Korean and Japanese units that ended Saturday, a statement from the US Navy’s Task Force 70 said.
The commander of Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5 said the strike group’s ability to move to where it’s needed shows its commitment to regional security.
Japan’s Joint Staff said the security environment around Japan was becoming “increasingly severe” and that drills with the US Navy were strengthening the alliance’s capability to respond to threats.
South Korea’s missile tests are failing to establish a solid joint defense posture of the bilateral alliance, and a U.S.-South Korean joint commander’s statement on Sunday
The cruise missiles flew around figure-8 pattern for almost three hours above the sea before hitting their target, according to the KCNA report.
The professor of international studies at Ewha Woman’s University in Korea believes the details of the reports cannot be trusted. “The Kim regime is sometimes surprisingly transparent about weapons development goals, but it also tends to exaggerate strength and capabilities.”
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said North Korean missile tests show a progressing program even if current strengths are exaggerated.
A missile is fired using a rocket or rockets and then it travels outside of Earth’s atmosphere to space before descending to its target.
A missile that’s designed to hit the mainland United States needs a small nuclear warhead, which is why cruise missiles have smaller ones.
“Policymakers in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington should not allow domestic politics and other challenges such as Russia’s war in Ukraine to prevent them from increasing international coordination on military deterrence and economic sanctions” on Pyongyang, he said.
It is not only missiles that North Korea is using to up the military pressure on the South. South Korea scrambled fighter jets and helicopter to track down five drones that were flying into its airspace, and then North Korea sent its own drones into the country.
South Korea said in a statement that it saw 180 North Korean aircraft between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.
However, within hours of the presumed failed test, Washington and Seoul agreed to extend those large-scale exercises to an unknown date, according to a statement from the South Korean Air Force, which said “it was necessary to demonstrate a solid combined defense posture of the bilateral alliance under the current security crisis, heightened by North Korea’s provocations.”
The sanctions target 15 individuals who contributed to bringing supplies related to the funding of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and missile development.
According to a statement by South Korea, the missiles flew for more than 100 miles before landing in the ocean.
Later Sunday, the U.S. sent B-1B bombers streaking over the Korean Peninsula to train with South Korean and U.S. fighter jets, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. It said Sunday’s training reaffirmed Washington’s “iron-clad” security commitment to South Korea.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said “everybody is holding its breath about” a potential North Korean nuclear test, which could provide further “confirmation of a program which is moving full steam ahead in a way that is incredibly concerning.”
We are following this very closely. The Director-General of the IAEA said he hopes that it doesn’t happen, but the signs are going in a different direction.
State of the Art: Counterattack on South Korea During Joint Airborne and Ground-Based Reactor Beam-Based Deep Inelastic Reactions
The US Defense Department said the joint exercises involved over 200 aircraft and thousands of service members from both countries.
The projectiles, including a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile, have triggered alerts, prompting some residents to seek shelter in two countries — South Korea and Japan — on both days.
It might be theoretically possible to put the entire US mainland in range of a North Korean nuclear warhead, but there are still a lot of questions about the missile’s capability.
Thursday’s launches take the count of North Korean missile tests to at least 30 so far this year, according to a CNN tally – though the count of individual missiles is far higher.
“And the region where the North Korean missile fell,” he adds, “has many fishing boats catching squid,” suggesting that it could put South Koreans’ livelihoods at risk, and “pose existential threat to South Korea, if need be.”
Last week, it pointed to 12 days of “National Defense” field exercises. The allies insist the drills are defensive, but they are trying to defeat threats from North Korea.
The military of South Korea scrambled warplanes and helicopters on Monday, but failed to shoot down any of the drones that flew back and forth between the two countries. The North Korean drones traveled all the way to the northern parts of the city. That caused security fears for a lot of people in the South, which was why the military apologized Tuesday.
“We’ve said before these kinds of activities are destabilizing to the region potentially. So we call on them to cease that type of activity and to begin to engage in serious dialogue,” Austin said.
A Security Council meeting is expected on Friday to discuss the recent missile launches by North Korea. The US, UK, France, Albania, Ireland, and Norway called for an open meeting according to the US Mission to the UN.
The US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield condemned the actions of North Korea in an interview with CNN.
The UN would be placing pressure on China and Russia to improve and enhance their sanctions. She didn’t say if the US president would raise sanctions against China at the G20, but she did say it was on his mind.
South Korea protests a “nuclear strategic bomber” that has been hijacked by North Korea, and a test of its missile technology
There are military displays of American might in close proximity to North Korea. The B-1B was described by the North as a “nuclear strategic bomber” but was switched to conventional weaponry in the late 1990s.
After a series of North Korean missile launches on Thursday, the allies extended the training for Saturday to make up for it.
South Korea flew three of its drones across the border on Monday to protest the provocation from North Korea. South Korean military staged large-scale military drills to shoot down drones.
The president of South Korea called for boosting his country’s air defense network and warned against provocations from North Korea.
South Korea successfully launched a solid- fueled rocket on Friday, which it plans to use to place its first spy satellite into space in the coming years.
South Korea currently has no military reconnaissance satellites of its own and depends on U.S. spy satellites to monitor strategic facilities in North Korea.
Some South Korean experts said the North Korean satellite imagery was too crude for military reconnaissance purposes and that they are likely a disguised test of North Korea’s missile technology. Kim Yo Jon, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jung Un, issued a series of crude attacks against South Korean experts. She also dismissed some outside doubts over North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile technology and threatened to conduct a full-range, standard-trajectory ICBM test.
The UN Security Mission in Korea: Status after the First Year’s Progress Report from the Workers’ Party Meeting on Saturday (the Third Workshop on Working in South Korea)
In an indication that the plenary meeting of the Workers’ Party was being wrapped up, the North’s state media reported Saturday that its powerful Politburo decided to complete the draft resolution of the plenary meeting.
The meeting will be published on Sunday, which will include a vow to expand Kim’s nuclear arsenal and introduce sophisticated weapons, in the name of dealing with the U.S.
The 600mm MRL was first introduced three years ago, and production has been increased since late October of 2022 for deployment, Kim said in his speech to the plenary session on Saturday, according to KCNA. He said that at least another 30 600mm MRL will be deployed to the military.
A professor at the Ewha University in South Korea said that Pyongyang has demonstrated its ability to perform military strikes in the past year.
Seoul’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) announced last month it will spend more than $2.7 billion over 10 years to strengthen the mission capabilities and survivability of its fleet of F-15K fighters, jets that would play a key role in any possible strikes on North Korea.
Washington is also not standing still. As well as deploying assets like F-22 fighters and B-1 bombers to the exercises around the Korean Peninsula, the US military recently activated its first Space Force command on foreign soil in South Korea, with the unit’s new commander saying he is ready to face any threat in the region.
The new unit “will be tasked with coordinating space operations and services such as missile warning, position navigation and timing and satellite communications within the region,” according to US Forces Korea.
Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN in December that North Korea has emerged as a missile power.
“Kim’s comments from the party meeting reads like an ambitious — but perhaps achievable — New Year’s resolution list,” said Soo Kim, a security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation. “It’s ambitious in that Kim consciously chose to spell out what he hopes to accomplish as we head into 2023, but it also suggests a dose of confidence on Kim’s part.”
South Korea’s security situation is still very grave after the new year started, according to the president. Our military has to punish any provocation from the enemy with a firm determination that we will risk fighting a battle.
Panda said the reference to a new ICBM appears to concern a solid-propellant system, which could be tested soon. He said a satellite launch could take place in April, a month that includes a key state anniversary.
The details were similar to North Korea’s Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile test flight in November, which experts said demonstrated potential to reach the U.S. mainland if fired on a normal trajectory.
The White House National Security Council stated that the launch risks destabilizing the security situation in the region, even after the U.S. Indo- Pacific command said it didn’t pose an immediate threat.
With limited resources, the expansion of his country’s military capabilities was underscored by the unprecedented number of missiles.
Those missiles included a new system experts say is possibly linked to the North’s stated desire to acquire a solid-fuel ICBM. Liquid propellants are used in North Korean ICBMs, which cannot remain fueled for a long period of time. A solid-fuel alternative would take less time to prepare and is easier to move around on vehicles, providing less opportunity to be spotted.
South Korea and the US will hold a one-day exercise next week at the Pentagon to work on a response to a possible use of nuclear weapons by North Korea.
Japan, the world’s oldest democracy, broke from its post World War II self-defense only principle in December of last year and included cruise missiles in a new national security strategy.
The Hwasong-15 ICBM launch was hastily organized without warning by Kim’s order, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
The Hwasong-15 launch demonstrated the North’s “powerful physical nuclear deterrent” and its efforts to “turn its capacity of fatal nuclear counterattack on the hostile forces” into an extremely strong one that cannot be countered, KCNA said.
“I warn that we will watch every movement of the enemy and take corresponding and very powerful and overwhelming counteraction against its every move hostile to us,” she said.
South Korea and Japan exchanged views on forced laborers in the postcolonial phase of the Cold War: a joint statement on the sidelines of a security conference in Germany
The foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan, meeting on the sidelines of a security conference in Germany on Saturday, agreed to boost a trilateral cooperation involving the United States and exchanged in-depth views on the issue of Japan’s colonial-era mobilization of forced Korean laborers — a key sticking point in efforts to improve their ties, according to Seoul’s Foreign Ministry.