Ruling Down the Ukraine: The Role of Air Defense, Missiles, and Drones in Pre-War War Instability

There’s now a race between the Ukrainians’ ability to acquire new air defense hardware, train on it and deploy it – and the Russians’ ability to inflict massive damage on Ukrainian infrastructure (civilian and military) with their deep stocks of missiles, not all of which are precision weapons.

The Ukrainian government and people fear that the Russian mix of missiles will wreak havoc among the civilian population if the Russians persist with their tactic of using swarms of missiles.

The great unknown is just how far such a blitz is depleting Russian inventories – and whether increasingly they will resort to stocks of older, less accurate but equally powerful missiles.

Russia may need to make do with less as well. Russia has lost more than a quarter of its pre-war inventory of 3000 tanks, with members of the 4th Guards Tank Division losing even more.

The Russians have adapted the air defense missile the S-300 as an offensive weapon. These have wrought devastation in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv, among other places, and their speed makes them difficult to intercept. But they are hardly accurate.

Russia has since unleashed a wave of air strikes on civilian infrastructure in an attempt to freeze Ukraine into submission during the winter months. The bombing campaign is making life miserable, but there are no sign of the Ukrainians backing down.

He said that the first time Russia has targeted energy infrastructure was at the beginning of the war.

Over the past nine months, the Ukrainians have also had plenty of practice in using their limited air defenses, mainly BUK and S-300 systems. But Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Air Force Command, said Tuesday said of these systems: “This equipment does not last forever, there may be losses in combat operations.”

Iran acknowledged for the first time providing some drones to Russia months before the war in Ukraine but denied continuing to supply them, on Nov. 5. Zelenskyy countered that Iran was lying, because the Ukrainians shoot down 10 Iranian drones a day.

The US announced a new $1.8 billion aid package to Ukraine, which included the “first-ever transfer to Ukraine of the Patriot Air and Missile Defense System, capable of bringing down cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and aircraft at a significantly higher ceiling than previously provided air defense systems.”

Missiles for their current systems and a “transition to Western-origin Layered air defense system” were included in Ukraine’s wish-list.

He said that the system won’t control all the airspace, but they are designed to control priority targets that Ukraine needs to protect. What you’re looking at really is short-range low-altitude systems and then medium-range medium altitude and then long-range and high altitude systems, and it’s a mix of all of these.”

Western systems are beginning to trickle in. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Tuesday that a “new era of air defense has begun” with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany, and two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) expected soon.

But these are hardly off-the-shelf-items. The IRIS-T had to be manufactured for Ukraine. Western governments have limited inventories of such systems. A large country under attack from three directions.

Deputy Defense Secretary Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Tuesday tweeted: “Thanks to Poland for training the air defense battalion in Ukraine”

Ukraine’s senior military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, tweeted Tuesday his thanks to Poland as “brothers in arms” for training an air defense battalion that had destroyed nine of 11 Shaheeds.

He said Poland had given Ukraine “systems” to help destroy the drones. Reports last month stated that the Polish government had bought advanced Israeli equipment and was transferring it to Ukraine, a policy that Israel does not want to follow.

The European Union will train thousands of Ukrainian soldiers on its own soil starting as early as next month under a plan that is expected to be approved Monday by EU foreign ministers.

As the war continues, the EU has debated on how to aid the Ukrainians. With Russia preparing to bring 300,000 more troops to the war and Ukraine still being outnumbered on the battlefield, turning people into soldiers is crucial for the country.

After October, Ukrainian air defenses were more focused on protecting frontline troops in the east and south, as well as key government buildings and military sites.

Iran’s War in the Middle East: A Crucial Test of the Security and Security of the Second World War, and its Implications for NATO, Europe and the West

A world affairs columnist is Frida Ghitis, a former CNN producer and correspondent. She has written for The Washington Post and World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.

Now, CNN has reported Iran is about to start sending even more – and more powerful – weapons to Russia for the fight against Ukraine, according to a western country closely monitoring Iran’s weapons program.

The relationship between Moscow and Tehran is drawing attention to Iran’s rivals in the Middle East, NATO members and nations that are still interested in restoring the nuclear deal with Iran, which aimed to delay Iran’s ability to build an atomic bomb.

The intersection of the war in Ukraine and the conflicts surrounding Iran is just one example of how Ukraine has become the pivot point for so many of the world’s geopolitical tensions.

The historian Yuval Noah Harari has argued that no less than the direction of human history is at stake, because a victory by Russia would reopen the door to wars of aggression, to invasions of one country by another, something that since the Second World War most nations had come to reject as categorically unacceptable.

The United States and the west supported Ukraine because of that. NATO gained new applications for membership from countries that had been committed to neutrality, because of the war in Ukraine. It also helped reaffirm the interest of many in eastern European states – former Soviet satellites – of orienting their future toward Europe and the West.

Much of what happens today far from the battlefields still has repercussions there. When oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, decided last month to slash production, the US accused the Saudis of helping Russia fund the war by boosting its oil revenues. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz recently reiterated that “Israel supports and stands with Ukraine, NATO and the West,” but will not move those systems to Ukraine, because, “We have to share our airspace in the North with Russia.”

The military aid had an effect. It’s a completely different scale, but CNN reported last month the US is running low on some weapons systems and munitions it provides to Ukraine. Look for that storyline to become part of the US aid debate after Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next month and promise more scrutiny of US aid for Ukraine.

The Bolts of War in Ukraine: Attacks on the U.S. Military, the Central Bank, Defenses, and the Farkas Letter

Higher prices not only affect family budgets and individual lives. When they come with such powerful momentum, they pack a political punch. The war has increased inflation, which has made incumbent political leaders in numerous countries vulnerable.

And it’s not all on the fringes. McCarthy was the leader who could become Speaker of the House and suggested the GOP might reduce aid to Ukraine. Progressive Democrats released and withdrew a letter calling for negotiations. Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official during the Obama administration, said they’re all bringing “a big smile to Putin’s face.”

The scale of Russian losses in infantry advances is not known. The advances were described by the institute to be ill-prepared and well dug-in defensive positions of Ukraine’s troops. The Ukrainian military estimates of Russian casualties are inflated but the relative increase in reported numbers suggests a rising toll. On Friday, the Ukrainian military said more than 800 Russian soldiers had been wounded or killed over the previous 24 hours.

Russian forces are able to stage 80 assaults per day, according to the statement, which spoke of a telephone conversation between an American general and the supreme allied commander in Europe.

General Zaluzhnyi wrote that they discussed the situation. He told his U.S. colleague that Ukrainian forces were beating back the attacks.

The Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment that the increase in infantry did not amount to a change in the balance of power in the east.

“Russian forces would likely have had more success in such offensive operations if they had waited until enough mobilized personnel had arrived to amass a force large enough to overcome Ukrainian defenses,” the institute said in a statement on Thursday.

The Ukrainian military has made significant gains in cutting supply lines and target Russian depots with long-range rockets in the northeast and south.

In the south where Ukrainian troops are moving towards Kherson, the Ukrainian military said it had fired over 160 times at Russian positions in the past 24 hours, while also reporting Russian return fire into Ukrainian positions.

Anticipation is mounting for a possible battle for Kherson, a Russian-occupied city in southern Ukraine. The officials are preparing for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Some Republicans warned that the party could limit funding for the country if it won control of the House of Representatives in the election this week.

NPR coverage of the latest developments in Ukraine after the November 2 attacks by the Ukrainian Air Force, and a warning from the EU to the European Commission in support of Ukrainians

Also Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Erdogan insists Sweden must meet certain conditions before it can join NATO.

A report from the International Atomic Energy Agency is scheduled to be discussed on Wednesday by the United Nations General Assembly.

Russia rejoined a UN brokered deal to export agricultural goods from Ukraine, on November 2. Moscow had suspended its part in the deal because of the drone attack on the Black Sea ships.

The Pentagon has announced an additional $400 million in security assistance for the country of Ukraine.

Past recaps can be found here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Also, listen and subscribe to NPR’s State of Ukraine podcast for updates throughout the day.

Ukrainian authorities have been stepping up raids on churches accused of links with Moscow, and many are watching to see if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows through on his threat of a ban on the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine.

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the prime minister of Norway will attend a dinner with the President of France on Monday in Paris.

A video address by the Ukrainian President is set to be broadcasted from France on Tuesday and will be part of a conference in support of Ukrainians.

U.S. Ambassador to the Mideast: The Case for a Russian Oil Eruption in the Light of the Game of Dec. 11

Fans, friends and family are celebrating the basketball player’s return to the U.S. after she was released from a Russian prison. Some Republican politicians are upset about the prisoner swap and other Americans still held by Russia.

New measures targeting Russian oil revenue took effect Dec. 5. A price cap on Russian oil and an embargo on Russian oil imports is included in the report.

Ukraine hit targets in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, including a church reported to be used as a Russian military base. The Zaporizhzhia region officials said that the Ukrainian forces used long range weaponry to reach their targets.

Zelenskyy said that Russian forces turned the city into burned ruins. Russia is attempting to advance into the city in the eastern region of the country.

President Zelenskyy had a phone call with President Biden on Dec. 11, as well as the leaders of France and Turkey, in an apparent stepping up of diplomacy over the 9 1/2-month-long Russian invasion.

A senior official in the Biden administration and two US officials said the Biden administration is close to announcing plans to send a missile defense system to Ukraine.

Lloyd Austin needs to approve the Pentagon plan before it is forwarded to President Joe Biden. The officials told CNN that they think it will be approved.

Defense Secretary Zelensky on the Transfer of a Patriot Missile Battery to Ukraine: A Comment on the Interplay of the United States, Russia and Ukraine

There are no known figures for how many missile batteries will be sent but a typical Patriot battery includes a radar set and up to eight missiles, each of which holds four ready to fire.

CNN reported that there were many questions that remained about how long it would take for the army to be trained in Germany and where the fighters would be deployed.

“If you have an Iranian Shahed uncrewed system headed toward critical infrastructure in Ukraine, it may well be worth the cost of a Patriot missile to take it out,” he said. The move makes sense given the onslaught that Russia is conducting against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

Unlike smaller air defense systems, Patriot missile batteries need much larger crews, requiring dozens of personnel to properly operate them. The United States usually takes a few months to train the batteries of their missile defense system.

Experts said that there are not large quantities of Patriot missiles available in the US for transfer to Ukraine similar to how the U.S. provided a large quantity of missiles to Kyiv for use in combat.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III could approve a directive as early as this week to transfer one Patriot battery already overseas to Ukraine, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Final approval would then rest with President Biden.

The White House, Pentagon and State Department declined to discuss details of the transfer of a Patriot battery, which would make it one of the most sophisticated weapons the US has provided Ukraine.

In a speech to the Group of 7 nations on Monday, Mr. Zelensky thanked the countries for their continued support but listed financing for weapons first among his requests.

The deployment of a missile array as a defensive system is not provocative: Defense minister Sergei Sergei Zakharova on Wednesday condemned the Russian military action against Ukraine

“Earlier, many experts, including those overseas, questioned the rationality of such a step which would lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase the risk of directly dragging the US army into combat,” Zakharova said at a briefing in Moscow.

The U.S. Army and a few US allies use the deployed pf the pf array. It was originally designed as an anti-aircraft system, and newer variants are used primarily to engage ballistic missiles.

Asked Thursday about Russian warnings that the Patriot system would be “provocative,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said those comments would not influence US aid to Ukraine.

Apparently officials from a country who brutally attacked its neighbour in an illegal and unprovoked invasion would use provocative words when describing their defensive systems that are meant to save lives and protect civilians.

He said the US is not at war with Russia and that there is no need for conflict. We are focused on giving Ukrainians security assistance they need to defend themselves.

The Russian defense ministry shared video of the installation of a intercontinental missile into the Kaluga region, in what may be a subtle message that the deployment of the military equipment is provocative.

Former president of Russia and a member of its national security council, Dmitry Medvedev has stated that if it were to be attacked, Russia would use nuclear weapons.

A commander with the Russian militia in the Donetsk region appeared on Russian state TV this week and said that Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.

In an interview with The Economist published Thursday, Zelensky also rejected the idea recently suggested by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Ukraine seek to reclaim only land seized by Russia since February 2022 and not areas like Donbas and Crimea, which have been under Russian control since 2014.

NATO still has two main objectives, and one of them is to provide aid to Ukraine and the other is to make sure that NATO does not escalate the war, according to the Secretary General.

Old ammo. CNN reported earlier this week on a US military official who said that the Russian army had to use 40-year-old shells because their supplies of new shells were quickly running out.

“You load the ammunition and you cross your fingers and hope it’s gonna fire or when it lands that it’s gonna explode,” said the official, speaking to reporters.

In the trenches: CNN’s Will Ripley discusses Ukrainian security measures in the Fortifications Along the Ukraine’s border with Belarus

In the trenches. CNN’s Will Ripley filed a video report from trenches and fortifications being built along Ukraine’s border with Belarus, where there is growing concern about Russia once again assembling troops. Ripley talks to a man that works on sewing machines.

A strike on DONETSK. Ukraine has launched a serious attack in the Donetsk region, the area controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014, according to a Russian-installed mayor there.

Russian threats before February’s invasion have been enough to derail Western support for Ukraine.

An official announcement is expected on a EuropeanUnion cap on natural gas prices, the latest measure to tackle an energy crisis largely spurred by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak makes his first appearance as prime minister before the Commons Liaison Committee, where the Ukraine war and other global issues are discussed. That follows Sunak’s meeting on Monday in Latvia with members of a U.K.-led European military force.

Russian news reports say that the presidents of Russia and China will have virtual talks later this month.

And Ukrainians and Russians are heading into their first Christmas or Hanukkah festivities since the Kremlin launched its full-on invasion of Ukraine in late February.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Dec. 13 it made an agreement with Ukraine’s government to send nuclear safety and security experts to each of the country’s nuclear power plants.

The Russian War on Everybody: The Case of a Ukrainian Prisoner in the Misleading Trace of Russia’s Outburst

A prisoner was released from Russian-controlled territory as part of the exchange. Suedi Murekezi told ABC News he spent weeks in a basement, where he was tortured, and months in a prison in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine.

The EU approved funding for Ukraine, and harsher sanctions against Russia. More than a dozen countries and global institutions pledged to give more than $1 billion in winter relief for Ukraine, after pledges earlier in the week.

Keir Giles works for the Russia and Eurasia Programme of Chatham House in the UK. He is the author of “Russia’s War on Everybody: And What it Means for You.” His own views are expressed in this commentary. Read more opinion on CNN.

Russia and its supporters around the world will portray this as a massive and dangerous escalation. That is highly effective, but it is nonsense.

Russia has a free pass to behave as it pleases, without fear of interfering in a global community looking on in either ambivalence or powerless paralysis due to its UN Security Council veto.

Russia’s efforts at deterrence continue to bring success in the form of arguments for a ceasefire as a preferable outcome to a Ukrainian victory – based on fear of the consequences of Russia suffering a defeat.

It’s hard to imagine any other country being permitted by the world to wage the kind of campaign Russia has in Ukraine (and in Syria before it); still less with an overt agenda of exterminating the Ukrainian people.

That sets a disastrous example for other aggressive powers around the world. Nuclear weapons make it possible for you to wage genocidal wars against your neighbors, because other nations won’t intervene.

If that isn’t the message the US and the west want other nations to receive, then there should be a much more direct and assertive means of dissuading Moscow.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was in Washington, D.C., on the day of the announcement to plead for additional air defense capabilities as Russian strikes have disrupted power and water supply across his country.

JeffreyEdmonds, who is a Russia analyst for the Center for a New American Security, said that this is a humanitarian issue when you are trying to deprive a country of its electrical grid and water. “I think they see that as a necessary step to help Ukrainians sustain themselves in the fight.”

Depending on which missiles are used and what is being targeted, a Patriot battery has a strike range of roughly 20 to 100 miles — much too small to cover the entirety of Ukraine, which is about 800 miles from east to west and more than 500 miles from north to south.

That will do a great job of protecting the city against threats. But it’s not putting a bubble over Ukraine,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The United States and Ukraine’s armed forces in response to the recent air strikes on Ukraine: A message to the U.S. and its allies

The training requirements mean the system will not be up and running until later in the winter or early spring.

The push to get the system up and running as soon as possible could backfire, Cancian said: Ineffective operation caused by hasty training could hamper the system’s effectiveness; in a worst case scenario, Ukrainians might be unable to prevent Russians from destroying it. That in turn could damage the political will to send future assistance to Ukraine, he said.

“If the Ukrainians had a year or two to assimilate the system, that wouldn’t be any problem. The problem is they don’t have a year or two. They want to do this in a couple weeks,” Cancian said.

Pressure has increased on the U.S. and its allies to do more because of the recent Russian air strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

In addition to the Patriot battery, the new aid package announced Wednesday also includes additional HIMARS ammunition, mortars, artillery rounds and tens of thousands of GRAD rockets and tank ammunition.

Kelly Greico, a defense analyst at the Stimson Center, called the announcement “a sign that there is a real deep concern” among U.S. officials about Ukraine’s air defense capability.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/21/1144662505/us-ukraine-patriot-missile-system

Zelensky’s confrontation with Russia as a critical challenge for the United States and the Cold War in Ukraine, an analyst tells CANCIAN

The cost of the missiles that are accompanying the Patriot is much more than that of the missiles that are used byHIMARS. They are costly enough that Ukrainians must be judicious in how they are used, analysts said. “You can’t just let these things fly,” said Cancian.

“That’s a terrible choice to face, between the natural urge to protect your civilians from these brutal attacks and trying to ensure that you have the long-term military wherewithal to continue to resist the Russian war effort,” Greico said.

Kyiv and its Western allies are “set for a long confrontation with Russia” following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s momentous visit to Washington, Moscow said as the war in Ukraine approaches 10 months.

After the White House meeting between Zelensky and the US president, the Russian foreign ministry said that the US president promised more military aid to Ukraine and it condemned what it called the “monstrous crimes” of that regime.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that no matter how much military support the West provides to the Ukrainian government, “they will achieve nothing.”

The tasks set in the framework of the special military operation will be fulfilled, as stated by the leadership of our country, Zakharova said.

Her comments came after Zelensky delivered a historic speech from the US Capitol, expressing gratitude for American aid in fighting Russian aggression since the war began – and asking for more.

The Kremlin opposed the transaction and stated that the US will prolong the Ukrainian people’s suffering.

Peskov added that “there were no real calls for peace.” Zelensky stressed that we need peace during his address to the US Congress.

The US is mounting a proxy war against Russia down at the last Ukrainian, according to Peskov.

At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.

War against Ukraine Has Left Russia Isolated and Struturing with More Tumult Ahedriah: Public-Private Phenomenology of a Cold Cold World

Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. According to a leading independent monitoring group, nearly 20,000 people have been taken into custody for demonstrating against the war.

Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.

The repressions extend elsewhere: organizations and individuals are added weekly to a growing list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public.

The most famous human rights group in Russia was forced to stop its activities after they were accused of violating the foreign agents law.

The state has also vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on “traditional values.”

The repressions are targeted at the moment. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. Should the moment arise, few doubt the measure is intended to crush wider dissent.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

Restrictions extend to internet users as well. American social media giants were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Access to independent sources of information is still offered by technical solutions. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

War against Ukraine: Russia is isolated and struggling with more traumatized-with-more-tumult-ahedria

Thousands of perceived government opponents — many of them political activists, civil society workers and journalists — left in the war’s early days amid concerns of persecution.

Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to border states, in an attempt to avoid the draft, following Putin’s order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops.

He argued it was a way of ridding Russian society of spies and traitors. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. Russia can thrive without its best and brightest, but there are questions about that.

Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.

Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. McDonald’s and several other brands ultimately relaunched under new names and Russian ownership. The economy had declined by 2.5% by year’s end, much less than most economists had predicted.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

War against Ukraine has Left Russia Isolated and Stumbling with More Torturbative Ahedric Arms During the First Two Years of Russian Invasion

Ultimately, President Putin is betting that when it comes to sanctions, Europe will blink first — pulling back on its support to Ukraine as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home. He banned oil exports to countries that abide by the price cap for five months, which is likely to make the pain worse in Europe.

The economic damage has already put an end to Putin’s two-decades strong reputation for providing “stability” — once a key basis for his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years that followed the collapse of the USSR.

When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Russia’s Defense Ministry provides daily briefings recounting endless successes on the ground. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”

The sheer length of the war suggests Russia underestimated the willingness of Ukrainians to resist.

Russian troops couldn’t conquer the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv. Kherson, the sole major city held by Russia, was abandoned during a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian forces have shelled the city repeatedly since retreating.

Moscow’s problems have been underscored by Russia’s illegal annexation of four territories of Ukraine following unrecognized referendums in September.

At home, there is no room for discussion of the true number of Russian losses. Western estimates place those figures much higher.

Russia’s ability to defend its own infrastructure has been put into question by a series of explosions along a key bridge.

Indeed, Russia’s invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have bought discounted Russian oil, but have stopped supporting the Russian military campaign.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Russian Prime Minister Biden’s “State of the Nation” address delayed for a decade of war, and plans for new combat vehicles in Ukraine

A state of the nation address, originally scheduled for April, was repeatedly delayed and won’t happen until next year. Putin’s annual “direct line” — a media event in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians — was canceled outright.

The big press conference that allowed the Russian leader to handle questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media was tabled until later in the decade.

The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. Many believe that after 10 months of war, the Russian leader has run out of good news to share.

Biden affirmed the new commitment in a telephone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday. Germany will also send Ukraine new fighting vehicles, along with a Patriot missile battery to protect against Russian air attacks.

The three armored vehicles sent by the West toUkraine are the most advanced of them all, occupying a kind of war machine that is not quite armored personnel carriers, and not quite tanks.

Those systems had been at the top of Zelensky’s wish list because it will allow his military to target Russian missiles flying at a higher altitude than they were able to target previously.

“The Ukrainians are planning to do more offensive operations against dug-in Russian positions, so getting better infantry fighting vehicles to get close to defensive positions is important,” said Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

The new equipment will be arriving just in time. The soviet-era vehicles that mirrored the AMX, M2 and Marder have been damaged and destroyed after 10 months of fighting.

The Times of February 22, 2019: A red line in the sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen

What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Is they always reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? The Times uses anonymous sources, even if the questions are satisfied. At least one editor and reporter know the identity of the source.

The AMX-10 has a 105-millimeter cannon. The M2 Bradley can be fitted with a cannon and missile. A 20- millimeter gun is usually fitted to the Marder. The three different vehicles use different ammunition types, meaning more of a logistics headache for the Ukrainian troops using them. The French one runs on large tires; the others on treads.

The author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” is David A. Andelman, a CNN contributor and two winner of the Deadline Club Award. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

Conventional wisdom is wrong. It’s becoming quite apparent that armored dominance on a battlefield like Ukraine could turn the tide, dramatically.

After weeks of tense deliberation, Germany on Wednesday announced it would be sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine – a move matched by the US, which is providing its own M1 Abrams. Other European nations have indicated they will follow suit.

Andrii Zahorodniuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, told me in a phone interview that Russia was regrouping after Germany announced it was building a tank.

“They are trying to take their time and call another mobilization,” added Zahorodniuk, who served as minister from 2019 to 2020, and is now co-founder of the security think tank Center for Defense Strategies.

The world watched in wonder – and with a strong dose of schadenfreude – as Russia’s intended blitzkrieg dash for Kyiv in the first days of the war last February dissolved in disaster.

At the time, satellite imagery of a 40-mile-long armored convoy suggested an all-out assault on Ukraine’s capital was imminent – but then it all but stopped moving.

Why? After that, it ran out of gas. According to US defense officials, deeply flawed supply systems led to columns running dry of fuel and food.

The mud was there. Russian tanks fell victim to the “Rasputitsa,” that in-between period between winter and spring when melting snows turn everything to mud, bogging down some tanks up to their turrets.

It was almost a year ago that the Russians were supposed to have learned their lesson. “It would be unwise for them to start their attacks in late winter or early spring,” said Zahorodniuk. “They should wait until the end of the spring when things are actually much drier.”

The West now has an opportunity to put to the test its most advanced main battle tanks in an active war situation. Its adversary has long been woefully ill-prepared for any such scenario.

I first stumbled across a Soviet tank driver in Moscow back in the 1980s when NATO was still preparing for, an admittedly remote, possibility of hordes of Soviet armor pouring through the Fulda Gap, overrunning Western Europe.

The driver was laughing at the prospect. He told me Soviet tank drivers would be issued sledgehammers to pound their transmissions into submission when the gears all too frequently jammed.

Decades later, some of these problems have been solved, but the vulnerabilities of Russian tanks in Ukraine continue. Thejack-in-the-box is a design flaw.

Most Russian tanks carry their guns’ ammunition right next to the crews that pilot the tanks, load and fire the guns – up to 40 high-explosive charges. While the tanks are heavily armored on their front, they are not so much on their sides and especially their turret.

A direct hit from an American-made Javelin or British-Swedish NLAW anti-tank missile targeting a hot engine can destroy a tank’s armor and cause enormous damage to the crew, which includes explosion of the entire ammunition stock.

Western tanks – both America’s M-1 Abrams and Germany’s Leopard 2 – have their crews carefully isolated from the ammunition behind blast-proof barriers.

The Russians have a new tank called the T-14 Armata that’s a good match for the M-1 Abrams or the Leopard 2. They have produced a small number of Armatas. After the first three May Day parades failed, just three were invited to the last one in Red Square.

“It’s how you use them, what sort of concept of operation you have, how effective you are,” said Zahorodniuk. It’s shown that with less equipment, we can do better. It is not a risk most people would want to take.

According to Zahorodniuk, the officials in charge of the armory think they need 300 modern battle tanks in order to compete with Russia.

It seems like it is unlikely that a fraction of that number have been pledged by all western allies. So far, the tally is 31 M-1 Abrams from the US, 14 Leopard 2s from Germany, 14 British Challenger 2s. With more promised by Poland, Portugal, Norway, Spain, Finland, and the Netherlands.

France will only be sending its light AMX-10 RC armored combat vehicles, not its main Leclerc battle tank, though President Emmanuel Macron has not ruled this out.

Germany is the moral compass: Underseas, tanks, and mechanics in the German parliament – a rare moment of steely leadership

But with at least three months needed to train tank commanders, gunners, drivers, technicians, and mechanics on these complex machines, time is of the essence.

Russia had invested heavily in the 750-mile undersea pipeline linking it to Germany and wanted to increase global sales and ramp up economic leverage over Europe and its power-hungry heavy industries. Germany, a leading consumer, was on board from the get-go. Washington was not.

The United States wanted the new supply to replace the old lines that traveled to Ukraine so that they could be used by the West.

Russia’s ambassador to Germany said Berlin’s move to send tanks was “extremely dangerous” and accused Scholz of refusing “to acknowledge its [Germany’s] historic accountability to our people for the horrific crimes of Nazism.” The White House and Biden were accused of being intent on the “strategic defeat” of Russia by his Washington counterpart.

Europe has not reacted fast enough to the deep fissures in US politics and the uncertainty another Trumpian-style presidency could cause. Germany is leading the way as decades of a fairly unshakable reliance, if not complete trust, has been replaced by stubborn European pragmatism.

Former Chancellor Merkel was Europe’s moral compass. While in the German parliament on Wednesday, Scholz flashed a rare moment of steely leadership as he won an applause for his ponderous, often stop/go/wait traffic-light governing coalition.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/europe/germany-russia-us-relations-intl-cmd/index.html

The Putin-Putin War: From Cold War to War-Instability, And Its Impact on the World Economic Outlook

“Trust us,” he said, “we won’t put you in danger.” He spelled out how his government had already handled Russia’s aggression and how fears of a freezing winter and economic collapse were not realized. “The government dealt with the crisis,” he said, adding: “We are in a much better position.”

The applause at each step of his carefully crafted speech was louder than he said. In short, Scholz got it right for Germany, bringing with him a population typically averse to war and projecting their own power, and deeply divided over how much they should aid Ukraine in killing Russians and potentially angering the Kremlin.

CNN spoke with some people after the announcements about tanks confused by Biden and Scholz. Some said Russia would win regardless, and lumped the US and Germany together as the losers, but a significant proportion were worried about the war, dismayed at the heavy death toll and frustrated that Putin ignored their concerns.

How much Scholz is aware of Putin’s softening popularity or whether he believes it relevant at this moment is unclear, but his actions now, sending tanks, may help ease Putin’s iron grip on power.

Longer debates about the next military moves for Ukraine will signal to Zelensky that weapons supplies will be on a tighter leash and that Washington isn’t the sole power in the country.

This shift in the power dynamic may not change the way the war is fought but could impact the contours of a final deal and shape a lasting peace when it comes.

The World Economic Outlook will be released by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday morning in Singapore. The IMF has stressed that the Russia-Ukraine war is a big factor causing economic slowdown and recession in some countries.

U.S. ambassador to Russia and Russian commander in chief of state for the russian offensive on Ukrainian rebels in Donetsk

A group of European Commission leaders is expected to visit Ukrainian on Thursday and the same day European Union leaders are going to hold a summit with Zelenskyy.

The Russian takeover of Soledar became known to the Ukrainian military as they retreated from the eastern town. Russian forces continued their offensive around Bakhmut and other parts of the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.

New U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy arrived in Moscow, at a time of strong tensions between the two governments over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Monday, Tracy was reportedly heckled by protesters as she entered the Russian Foreign Ministry to present her credentials.

Estonia and Latvia told Russia’s ambassadors to leave after the Kremlin said it expelled the Estonian ambassador and downgrading relations with the Baltic NATO member state over what it called “Russophobia.”