The US Marine Security Forces and its Interceptions: a warning on the danger of launching a no-fly zone or intercepting a Chinese ship in the Pacific

In recent years the number of Chinese intercepts at sea and in the air have increased greatly, said the most senior US general who has issued a stark warning.

“The volume, the number of Chinese intercepts at sea and in the air have increased significantly over five years,” Milley said, though he offered no further details on the figure.

The strong comments from Milley underscore the Biden administration’s efforts to make countering China a key strategic priority, and they come as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appears to be preparing to lead a congressional delegation to Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own territory.

President Joe Biden has suggested the US military believes a potential trip by Pelosi and other lawmakers would pose security risks. The Pentagon wouldn’t say if officials briefed the Democrat directly on the California Democrat’s worries regarding China establishing a no-fly zone or the unsafe intercepts of US ships and aircraft in the Pacific region.

Officials tell CNN the aim is to have a solid look at any changes in patterns of Chinese military activity. Interactions between the two militaries are so sensitive that incidents are often not made public. For example, in June, a US C-130 transport plane being operated by US special forces had some type of encounter with Chinese aircraft, but the Pentagon has yet to publicly acknowledge the incident.

The Australian government claimed in February that a Chinese ship had used a laser to illuminate an Australian Air Force jet, which it termed a serious safety incident.

The Australian Defence Force said that in a statement at the time that acts like this have the potential to endanger lives. Pilots targeted by laser attacks in the past have reported disorienting flashes, pain, spasms and spots in their vision and even temporary blindness.

The War on the Taiwan Strait Revisited: Security and Security Implications for the Second Summit of the Asian Defense Council on Foreign Relations

“Indo-Pacific countries shouldn’t face political intimidation, economic coercion, or harassment by maritime militias,” Austin said in a keynote speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier defense conference.

The defense white paper says that the development of China’s national defense aims to meet its rightful security needs and contribute to the growth of the world’s peaceful forces. “China will never threaten any other country or seek any sphere of influence.”

The US does not recognize these territorial claims and routinely conducts operations there, including freedom of navigation operations through the South China Sea.

Beijing has intensified its military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island’s air defense identification zone.

The Chinese military conducted joint combat readiness patrol and strike drills around Taiwan in response to provocations between Taiwan and the US, without providing specific details.

The Taiwanese defense ministry said in a statement that it has faith in its sovereignty. “The actions of the Chinese Communist Party highlighted its mentality of using force to resolve differences, which undermines regional peace and stability,” it said.

On Friday, US President Joe Biden signed a sweeping new defense bill into law that included the establishment of a defense modernization program for Taiwan to deter Chinese aggression.

The cooperation between Taiwan and the United States will help keep the region free and open. The military will continue to improve their military readiness, based on threats and needs.

Biden met Chinese leader Xi for the first time during his presidency of the G20 summit in Indonesia. Biden said the meeting was open and candid and cast doubt on an invasion of Taiwan.

Climate talks with China are expected to be resumed, as well as part of a broader set of agreements between Biden and the Chinese leader, which was halted due to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

A Joint Force Exercise in the South China Sea: U.S. Response to China’s Decays of December 21 & December 22

Last Friday, China also conducted a series of military drills close to Japan’s southern Okinawa island in the Pacific Ocean, according to Japanese authorities.

On December 21, the Chinese navy sailed its ship with two destroyers and a frigate off of the east coast of Japan, near Kitadaito Island. On December 22, the vessels sailed eastward from Okinotorishima, which is further southeast.

The defense ministry in Japan says that approximately 180 carrier-based fighter jets and helicopters took off and landed on the airplane carrier on Friday.

Two escort ships were dispatched by the Japan ministry of defense and Self-defense forces to gather information and carry out warnings.

China also conducts regular military exercises in much of the South China Sea and maintains a large presence of coast guard and fishing vessels in the disputed waters – which has frequently stoked tensions with its neighbors.

Japan launched a new national security plan this month that signaled the country’s biggest military increase since World War II as it faced growing threats from Russia, China and North Korea.

The U.S. plane was “lawfully conducting routine operations over the South China Sea in international airspace,” the statement said. Its pilot was forced to “take evasive maneuvers to avoid a collision,” it said.

On December 21, a US Air Force plane with 30 people on board was flying over China when a Chinese Navy jet flew within 20 feet of their nose. In response, the RC-135 had to take “evasive maneuvers to avoid a collision,” INDOPACOM said in a statement Thursday.

It was about two weeks since a suspected Chinese balloon entered American airspace. In that time China’s response has shifted from conciliatory to indignant, and now, as the fallout continues, to outright confrontational.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Joint Force is devoted to a free and open area and will continue to fly, sail and operate with due regard for the safety of all vessels and aircraft under international law.

On Monday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson also accused the US of frequently sending warships and planes to carry out close-range reconnaissance against China, which the spokesman claimed amounted to a total of 657 times last year – and 64 times this January in the South China Sea.

Why does the 135 jet have to fly so close to each other in order to provoke a terrorist attack? An update of the Meanwhile in China newsletter

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. This is where you can sign up.

The CNN crew could see the pilots turn their heads and look at the fighter jet which had weapons on its tail fins and missiles.

The 135 is a plane that doesn’t fly. Why does the PLAN consider it necessary to intercept carrying missiles when the intent was to visually identify the aircraft? Doing this could cause a tragic incident and it’s not safe to do it.

“There was no possible gain by the fighter flying so close except to create an incident – that was handily recorded on a high quality video camera the fighter’s crew just happened to have and be using. He said that the incident seems very well planned by the PLAN.

Layton pointed out another potential danger that could lead to escalation. The Chinese aircraft is armed with missiles, as seen in the US video.

In regards to the US military saying that the jet had to take ‘evasive maneuvers’, he said that it was a very dramatic term.

“These are no different than a driver adjusting her position to avoid a temporary lane incursion by an adjacent driver,” Hopkins said. “The US response is pure theater and needlessly creates an exaggerated sense of danger.”

According to her, flying aircraft at 500 miles per hour in close proximity to each other is unsafe.

When the Philippines Came to China, And The U.S. Let’s Not Let It Go: The South China Sea Missing Link

“It’s worth remembering that the PLA has effectively wrecked any kind of hotlines or discussion forums for addressing potential incidents with the United States. There are less options for senior officers when it comes to limiting potential escalations if an intercept goes wrong.

But in a regular press briefing on Friday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the incident was just the latest in a string of US provocations that threaten stability in the region.

The US Navy reconnaissance jet flies at 21,500 feet over the South China Sea, 30 miles from the contested Paracel Islands, a group of about 130 small atolls, the biggest of which are home to Chinese military bases.

In the most infamous incident in 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collided with a US reconnaissance plane near Hainan Island in the northern South China Sea, leading to a major crisis as the Chinese pilot was killed and the damaged US plane barely managed a safe landing on Chinese territory. The US crew was released after 11 days of intense negotiations.

Beth Sanner was a deputy director for National Intelligence for Mission Integration and oversaw elements that coordinated and led collection, analysis and program oversight across the Intelligence Community. She was the president’s intelligence briefer in this role. She is employed by the University of Maryland and CNN as a national security analyst. The opinions expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.

Let’s remember that the balloon incident is only a small part of the bigger picture. I am not suggesting the US should turn their back on each other. US officials need to respond to threats posed by Chinese actions based on both the immediate risk and US strategic interests, because we need to better differentiate threats posed by various Chinese actions. I fear the current mood in Washington dictates that every Chinese activity is equally threatening.

China claims the South China Sea virtually in its entirety, putting it on a collision course with other claimants. Despite friendly overtures to Beijing by former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in January in Beijing, tensions have persisted, drawing in closer military alliance between the Philippines and the U.S.

Then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin laid blame for the collision on the US. Nearly two months elapsed before the two sides reached agreement for the return of the aircraft. The Chinese insisted that the US pay for dismantling and transporting the plane’s hardware, software and communications equipment after they removed and refused to return it. The Bush Administration was offered $1 million by Beijing for costs related to the incident, including expenses for detaining the plane’s crew. Washington countered with an offer of some $34,000 it said was a “fair figure” — money China refused — and never apologized.

My first reaction to the Chinese balloon when it was identified floating over Montana was probably the same as yours: “Shoot it down, already!” But in my decades as a senior intelligence official, my role in such circumstances was to focus on the facts, not the outrage, highlighting the intelligence community’s knowledge — and the gaps in our understanding — and providing a measured, clear-headed assessment. In meetings probably held in the White House Situation Room multiple times over the past week, a senior intelligence official would have joined the US military, level-setting the discussion in this vein. So I’m inclined to buy the risk-benefit calculus that drove the decision to wait to shoot the balloon down until it was flying over shallow US waters where the risk posed by a large debris field was minimal.

If you listen carefully, you will hear both the war drums and the hyperbole as I wait for the hyperbole to reach new heights as we move closer to the 2024 election: who will be the toughest on China? But let’s not let China-bashing become a new brand of McCarthyism, particularly when considering the already-dangerous rise in anti-Asian rhetoric and violence reported in the US in recent years.

Instead, let’s come up with a more strategic, measured plan to hold China accountable, but also allow room for needed dialogue. We all wish to avoid a military conflict with China, but Beijing’s lead will make it harder than ever.

The shooting down of a high-altitude object over Alaska in response to the First White House Press Briefing on Friday (December 14)

President Joe Biden told CNN that the shoot down a “high-altitude object” hovering over Alaska on Friday “was a success,” shortly after American national security officials disclosed that the commander-in-chief gave the US military approval to take the action.

The U.S. and Canada have had objects brought down in the last week. The American officials have not said which objects they received or who sent them.

“In light of the People’s Republic of China balloon that we took down last Saturday, we have been more closely scrutinizing our airspace at these altitudes, including enhancing our radar, which may at least partly explain the increase in objects that we detected over the past week,” said Melissa Dalton, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Hemispheric Affairs.

Kirby said during the White House press briefing that the object was a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight.

There were two efforts to get closer to the object and evaluate it as it flew. The first engagement by fighter aircraft took place late Thursday night and the second Friday morning. Kirby told reporters that both engagements yielded limited information.

The pilots assessment was that this was not manned, which makes it difficult to shoot it down.

Biden, at the recommendation of the Pentagon, ordered the military “to down the object and they did,” Kirby added. Fighter planes assigned to the US Northern Command brought down an object that came inside territorial airspace. It went down near the Canadian border and in northeastern Alaska. The US expects to recover the debris.

US Northern Command’s Alaska Command coordinated the operation with assistance from the Alaska Air National Guard, Federal Aviation Administration and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Ryder said.

China’s spy balloon: Who owns it, and what does it tell us? How closely did the US government know about the balloon-bounced spy balloon?

The best description we have is why we are calling this an object. Kirby doesn’t know who owns it, whether it is state-owned or privately-owned.

The object came to the government’s attention last night. Biden was first briefed Thursday night “as soon as the Pentagon had enough information,” Kirby said.

The object did not appear to be self-maneuvering, making it ” much less predictable”, according to Kirby.

The Federal Aviation Administration issued a temporary flight restriction Friday in the area around Deadhorse, Alaska, as the military took action against the object.

A source with knowledge of the Thursday briefings to Congress said Biden officials believed that both the senior leaders of the People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese Communist Party were unaware of the balloon mission.

While the president has stood by how he and his administration handled that balloon, he has faced criticism from Republicans for allowing the suspected spy balloon to float over much of the country before shooting it down.

However, a senior State Department official said the US believes the balloon was part of a “PRC fleet of balloons developed to conduct surveillance operations” and that these activities are “often undertaken at the direction of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).” The official added that China has “overflown these surveillance balloons over more than 40 countries across five continents” – without providing more detail.

The assessment was communicated to American lawmakers in briefings Thursday, according to CNN reporting – and if true, could point to what analysts say would be a significant lack of coordination within the Chinese system at a fraught period of China-US relations.

The location of a balloon over the US raises the question of how closely it was watched by the Chinese President, whether it was a military balloon or civilian one.

Beijing maintains the device was a civilian research airship blown off course. The topic became fun on Chinese social media because it was different to the US, where the balloon set off serious public concerns.

Beijing, in a statement last weekend, appeared to link the device to “companies,” rather than the government or military – though in China the prominence of state-owned enterprises and a robust military-industrial complex blurs the line between the two.

“The problem with the centralization of power under Xi Jinping is the lack of delegation of authority to lower levels,” said Thompson, who is a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

That means that lower-level officials who may have the capacity to more closely monitor such missions may not be empowered to do so, or not be equipped to make political judgments about their impact, he said. Power struggles between lower and higher ranking officials could also complicate communication, he said.

“There is a tension throughout the Chinese system – it’s a feature of Chinese governance, where lower levels fight for their own autonomy, and upper levels fight for greater control,” he said.

There have been past crises in China that have pointed to tensions, with the most recent being the Covid-19 outbreak, which was blamed on reporting delays. Local officials were blamed for being accustomed to a system in which information flowed from the top down rather than from the bottom up.

There is a political scientist at the University of Chicago that believes that balloon launches could fall into a gap in which the operations are not supervised the same way as space or other aircraft missions.

In this case, entities launching balloons may have received “little or no push back from other countries, including the United States” and “increasingly seen such launches as routine based on weather conditions and at modest costs,” Yang said.

The leaders of these programs are not likely to get top priority attention from the standpoint of political risk, as a result of this.

After the Weibo Fallout: The First Philippine Ship to Block a Submerged Submerged Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea

A professor of public policy said that the man wanted 100% control because of his personality. I don’t think he’s willing to give that kind of freedom.

Instead, Xi may have been comfortable with an incident that diverted the attention of a public frustrated amid a faltering economy after years under the recently dismantled zero-Covid policy – but underestimated the US domestic response that resulted in the postponed talks, Wu said.

Meanwhile, Washington may be offering its message that Xi wasn’t aware of the situation as it seeks to “continue the dialogue” started during a meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Bali, according to Wu.

China said Sunday it was preparing to shoot down an unidentified object flying near its eastern coast, just hours before US fighter jets took out a third object in three days in the airspace above the United States and Canada.

In a text message to fishing vessels, maritime authorities in the neighboring port city of Qingdao told crews to be on alert to avoid danger and assist with debris recovery efforts if possible.

“If debris falls near your boat, please help take photos to collect evidence. In a message cited by The Paper the marine development dept of Jimo district called for assistance in saving it.

The Chinese authorities and state media had not provided any information, and it was not clear if the object had been taken down.

Following the fallout, the US Commerce Department has restricted six Chinese companies tied to the Chinese military’s aerospace programs from obtaining US technology without government authorization.

A large amount of Chinese users were waiting for the object to be take down, on Sunday evening, on Chinese social media. The comment on the top of the Weibo comment was that thanks to the demonstration made by the US, we must report it in a high-profile manner.

Although the Chinese coast guard had tried to block Philippine coast guard ships in the disputed waters before, this was the first time it used lasers and caused physical suffering among Filipino personnel, Philippine coast guard spokesperson Commodore Armand Balilo told The Associated Press.

The Philippine coast guard said that the Chinese ship maneuvered to block the Philippine patrol vessel from approaching the submerged Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.

“The Chinese ship illuminated the green laser light twice toward the BRP Malapascua, causing temporary blindness to her crew at the bridge,” the Philippine statement said.

The Philippine vessel was forced to move away from the area, where it was escorting a supply vessel that was delivering food and sailors to a Philippine navy sentry ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, which has been marooned on Second Thomas Shoal since 1999, the coast guard said.

In the latest incident, one of the two Chinese ships that were joined by two Chinese civilian vessels removed the cover of its 70mm armament, the coast guard said, adding it would not be deterred by China’s aggression in protecting Philippine sovereignty in the disputed sea.

What China’s Claims About China and the Philippines: “The One-Upmanship Tactics” are a Large Case of What-aboutism

China and the Philippines are two countries with conflicting claims to the busy waterway, where most of the world’s commerce and oil transits take place.

The US Navy and Marine Corps held joint exercises over the weekend in the South China Sea at a time of increased tension with Beijing over the downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon. The U.S. has been taking steps to rebuild its military might in the Philippines more than 30 years after the closure of its large bases in the country and reinforcing an arc of military alliances in Asia.

“‘Everybody spies’ is a poorly considered trope that does not justify China’s intrusion in other countries’ airspace. How countries conduct surveillance and reconnaissance matters, just as respect for international law, and the Law of the Sea matters,” he said.

While China’s increasingly hardline stance plays to its domestic audience, it’s also served to expose the inconsistencies and inherent contradictions in Beijing’s messaging – severely damaging its credibility, analysts say.

Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, described China’s claims as “a sort of one-upmanship tit-for-tat against Washington’s accusations.”

Beijing seems to be trying to depict itself as a victim of US spy activities instead of being painted as an oppressor over the past week.

Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, called China’s latest tactic “a large case of what-aboutism.”

“And it’s been quite contradictory. It lacks credibility with the other countries due to the fact that it is largely directed towards the domestic audience.

Deflation of a Chinese Balloon in Airspace Over the Spratly Islands: A Professor of International Law in the South China Sea

The territorial waters of a country are 12 nautical miles away from its land and are part of a country’s airspace. A professor of international law at the Australian National University said that commercial and military aircraft, including balloons, are allowed to engage in overflight over the ocean without obtaining permission.

Koh, who specializes in maritime security and naval affairs in the Indo-Pacific, said existing Chinese official positions espoused on the contested South China Sea clusters, such as the Spratly Islands, did not explicitly highlight the status of the airspace over the claimed waters and terrestrial features, even though the airspace over Chinese-occupied features are claimed as national airspace.

“In recent years, the Chinese military has also been challenging foreign military aerial activities over the Spratlys, including those run by the Filipinos when they flew close to the Chinese-occupied outposts,” he said.

China has also undertaken significant land reclamation and built at least seven artificial islands in the South China Sea. International law says that an artificial island doesn’t give airspace sovereignty.

It generally extends to the maximum height at which commercial and military aircraft operate. He said that Concorde was the first airliner to operate 60,000 feet, setting a precedence for how high national airspace can be.

The Chinese balloon was in US airspace after it was spotted in Montana. China did not clarify at what altitudes the alleged incursions of US balloons occurred.

The ministry’s statement said the balloon carried equipment for a state-owned electronics company.

The company was identified by the report as Taiyuan Wireless (Radio) First Factory Ltd., but a publicity officer told the reporter that the company provided electronics but did not build the balloon.

The spokesperson, who gave only his surname, Liu, said Taiyuan was among a number of companies that provided equipment to the China Meteorological Administration.

The balloon was likely among those launched daily to monitor weather and was probably set off from the coastal city of Xiamen with no fixed course, he said.

The maximum altitude of it was around 30,000 meters, so its deflation was probably a result of that. He said that the balloons fly over the Taiwan Strait, but have recently begun to draw attention.

The first 100 days of the war: Taiwan’s strategic waterway ruled by China’s derivation of the history of the South China Sea

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said that the information on the equipment was written on the mainland in simplified Chinese characters.

Washington is Taiwan’s closest military and diplomatic ally, despite a lack of formal ties, which were cut in 1979. Beijing protests strongly over contacts with the U.S. but its aggressive diplomacy has helped build bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.

Biden said he hoped the new rules would help distinguish between those that are likely to pose safety and security risks and those that aren’t, and that he wasn’t sorry for downing the objects.

Biden directed Sullivan to lead an agency team to review U.S. procedure after the U.S. shot down the Chinese balloon.

The CNN crew was given rare access aboard the US flight, and listened in as a voice said it was coming from aPLA airport.

Not only does the strategic waterway hold vast resources of fish, oil and gas, but about a third of global shipping passes through it – worth about $3.4 trillion in 2016, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) China Power Project.

The Paracel Islands in the South China Sea are located in the north, west, and south of Vietnam and China.

The Chinese military garrisons are the only ones spoken of by the indigenous population according to the CIA Factbook.

In 2016, in a case brought by the Philippines, an international tribunal in the Hague ruled that China’s claim to historic rights to the bulk of the sea had no legal basis.

The US Navy spotted the PLA Navy guided-missile destroyer over intl Khnk-ml/us-Navy-South-Chinesea flyover

On Friday, while flying close to the Philippines, the US Navy P-8 spotted a PLA Navy guided-missile destroyer and descended to around 1,000 feet to get a closer look – bringing more warnings from the PLA.

There are US aircraft. US aircraft. This is Chinese naval warship 173. You are approaching to me at low altitude. A voice comes over the radio, saying, State your intention over.

The US Navy said the US cruiser conducted the operation “in accordance with international law and then continued on to conduct normal operations in waters where high seas freedoms apply.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/24/asia/us-navy-south-china-sea-flyover-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

When there’s no response, what do people really want to know about a topic? A friend asks: “I don’t know what you have to say”

“Whenever there’s no response, it leaves questions. Do they understand what’s being said? They are supposed to understand our intentions. Do they know that we do not mean any harm? he says.