The Russian-Russian War on the Balkans: What Does Russia Want to Learn from the Yermak and Kolbe Regimes?

The fighting is not expected to be stopped by the fast approaching winter. The Ukrainians are favored on the battlefield because of the harsh weather. The Ukrainians can go knock on the door and be taken in by someone and get a bowl of soup from their fellow citizens. And of course, they’re welcomed as liberators, whereas the Russian occupiers, the Ukrainians are trying to kill them,” he said.

Moscow must demonstrate its willingness to negotiate in good faith and that it is prepared to engage in good faith with our Ukrainian partners if we are going to have a chance of success.

There is a conference run by The Cipher Brief in Sea Island, Ga., where current and former members of the national security community meet to look at the big picture of global security.

The US understands clearly why Zelensky would balk at negotiations with the country attacking Ukraine on a daily basis, and Putin has shown little willingness to enter serious discussions or make any concessions to Kyiv. The goal of the US is to shift the message so as to ensure that support from abroad will continue to helpUkraine succeed on the battlefield.

A top Ukrainian official, Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to President Zelenskyy, told the conference the conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.

But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. He says it’s the opposite. “Putin’s memory of when he runs into an obstacle escalates when he gets to it,” said Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”

Over the past 10 days, Russia has effectively launched a new front with long-range missile and drone strikes directed at civilian targets in the capital Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

Putin is also calling up 300,000 more troops, and he annexed a swathe of Ukrainian territory in the south and the east, claiming it’s now part of Russia forever.

“That is essentially a metaphorical burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”

However, Ukraine’s civilians remain extremely vulnerable in the face of Russian air strikes. The blackmail of the energy industry involves cutting off gas supplies, shutting off electricity and bombing electric substations. Putin’s strategy will inflict pain, he said. But he added, “when your kids are dying, you’re going to keep fighting even if you don’t have heat, even if your economy of your country is in dire straits. And I think he’s miscalculated on this front.”

Social media influencer marta Makarova: the fight for the U.S. war and where the next year will lead (and what will they tell us)

At the Georgia conference, in a ballroom filled with experienced national security types, no one suggested the war was near an end. “Civil wars often end with some sort of negotiated solution, but I don’t see any prospects of talks in the near term,” said the former CIA official.

The war started with a Russian invasion, and is now as intense as it has ever been. Greg Myre is an NPR journalist. Followgregmyre1.

KYIV, Ukraine — Sitting on a park bench by a tram stop in Kontraktova Square, Marta Makarova, a 21-year-old budding social media influencer, takes a break from talking with two friends about Instagram to talk instead about the war. Makarova explains how much of their safety depends on U.S. support.

He says the upcoming U.S. elections are the top issues he hears about on his social media channels.

Plugged-in Ukrainians are keeping a close eye on next month’s U.S. midterm elections. The likelihood that Republicans will take control of the House has triggered concerns about long-term support for the war effort.

This week, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy warned that his party members will not write “a blank check” to Ukraine if they win control of the lower chamber next year.

He told Punchbowl News that people are going to be sitting in a recession and not writing a blank check to Ukraine.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine is Too Much: A Survey of Ukrainian Political Leaders in the Pre-Wale Roundtable and Implications for Russia

Two of the Republicans who had opposed McCarthy until Friday afternoon – Florida Rep. Byron Donalds and Texas Rep. Chip Roy – had called on the House to change leadership and debate rules over Ukraine aid. Other Ukraine aid skeptics have continued to oppose McCarthy’s bid.

A line of Ukrainian politicians, activists — even soldiers — have been traveling to Washington in advance of the midterms to keep up relations and lobby for more aid.

President Zelenskyy has a Servant of the People party and Yevheniia Kravchuk is a member of parliament. She traveled to Washington twice since the beginning of the war to meet with both Democrats and Republicans.

But Kniazhytskyi worries about the influence of a vocal group of Republicans, many aligned with former President Donald Trump, as well as conservative TV personalities who have been speaking out against the billions of dollars going to Ukraine.

Over roughly the same time, the percentage of Americans who said they were extremely or very concerned about Ukraine’s defeat fell from 55% in May to 38% in September.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month showed that about a quarter of Americans say the United States is giving too much aid to Ukraine, up significantly from a year ago. The shift has occurred mostly among Republicans.

Burkovskiy laments how Ukraine got sucked into Trump’s first impeachment, after Zelenskyy came close to submitting to Trump’s demand to announce an investigation into the family of then-candidate Joe Biden.

“If you have a member of the House speaking about why are we spending money and Ukraine is corrupt, people in the Ukranian region hear that and it means ‘oh my God, that’s a new’.”

The balance of power in Washington means that a few Republicans can’t change the direction of U.S. support for the war, he believes. He emphasized that the problems inUkraine are bigger than politics in the US.

The War on Ukrainians: J.D. Vance’s Remarks on the Failure of the U.S. Senate Campaign to End the War on Ukraine

Dean Obeidallah is the host of a radio show and a columnist for The Daily Beast. Follow him @DeanObeidallah. The opinions are of his own. View more opinion on CNN.

I have to be honest with you. J.D. Vance did not care that Russia was launching a war on the Ukrainian people.

The GOP Senate candidate in Ohio later changed his mind and stated he wanted the Ukrainians to be successful. But as The Washington Post detailed on Sunday, Vance’s original remark is causing Ukrainian Americans who are lifelong Republicans to support his Democratic opponent, Tim Ryan, in that too-close-to-call Senate race.

This month, the Biden administration authorized an additional $725 million in security aid for Ukraine after Putin’s forces launched a brutal barrage of missiles against Ukrainian civilian targets and power facilities that led to “massive blackouts” across the nation.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Twitter last week after Russian missiles rained down on Ukrainian cities, “Another kind of Russian terrorist attacks: targeting energy & critical infrastructure. Since Oct. 10, 30% of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country.”

White House officials, before the current predicament on Capitol Hill, were skeptical that Ukraine aid would dry up completely. They have pointed out Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell is among the most ardent supporters of Ukraine, and note McCarthy has pledged continued support for Ukraine.

The War Between Ukraine and the United States: Tucker Carlson, Mike Pence, Vladmir Putin, and the Oval Office in the House of Representatives

He knows better, and the fact that he is willing to sacrifice everything for his own political gain shows that he is.

Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — who recently declared that if Republicans win the House in next month’s elections that she expects McCarthy “to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway” — blamed Ukraine for the war shortly after Russia’s attack, saying that “Ukraine just kept poking the bear and poking the bear, which is Russia, and Russia invaded.”

Conservative Fox News stars, including Laura Ingraham and especially Tucker Carlson, have been laying the groundwork with members of the Republican base, readying them for the possibility of an end to US assistance for Ukraine.

Carlson — who declared on his show in 2019 when there was a potential conflict between the neighboring countries that he was “root(ing) for Russia” — did his best in the months before Putin’s attack to paint Ukraine in a negative light. Carlson had made false claims about Ukraine being not a democracy and Zelensky being a puppet of the Biden administration.

And just last week, Ingraham derided former Vice President Mike Pence for referring to the United States as the “arsenal of democracy” and suggested our massive military is too depleted to help other countries such as Ukraine. During that same episode, Ingraham welcomed GOP Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana, who echoed McCarthy’s comments about aid for Ukraine, saying, “We can’t put America first by giving blank checks to those around the world to solve their problems.”

McCarthy and some of his colleagues may not get it, as Biden suggested. But there’s one person who fully gets it: Vladmir Putin. The GOP regains control of the House will cause many people a great deal of joy.

“He’s not rushing to negotiate with Russia or to press (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) One official who was familiar with Milley’s thinking said Zelensky. There is a pause in the fighting towards a political end state.

The result is a growing debate inside the administration over whether Ukraine’s recent gains on the battlefield should spark a renewed effort to seek some sort of negotiated end to the fighting, according to officials.

The push for peace spilled into the public in the past few days, just as the city of Kherson was taken back by the Ukrainians. In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach.

The comments left administration officials unsurprised – given Milley’s advocacy for the position internally – but also raised concerned among some about the administration appearing divided in the eyes of the Kremlin.

There are also concerns among foreign diplomats about the implications the House speaker negotiations could have on the future of US support for Ukraine.

U.S.-Russia War on Ukraine and the War Between Ukraine and its Embedding in the Early 2000s, as it was reported on CNN on Wednesday

The officials said Milley wanted to make it clear that he’s not suggesting a capitulation but that he wants the war to end before it drags into the spring or beyond and causes more deaths and destruction.

The view is not often held across the administration. One official explained that the State Department is on the opposite side of the pole from Milley. The situation is unique, because military brass are pushing for diplomacy over US diplomats.

Milley wants the US military to support the Ukrainians, but he is concerned about how long this war will last as the US has dug deep into US weapons inventories to support the Ukrainians.

The US plans to buy at least 100,000 rounds of gun fire from South Korean manufacturers to give to the Ukrainians, according to a US official. 100,000 round of 155mm howitzer bullets will be purchased from the US and then transferred to Ukraine through the US.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price would not say Thursday whether the State Department agrees with Milley’s position. Instead, Price deflected to a position that US officials have often made in recent months: the US sides with Zelensky who has said that a diplomatic solution is needed.

In December, 40% of respondents in a Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll said that the US should maintain its current level of support for Ukraine. But Americans are divided on whether the United States should support Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” with support dropping 10 percentage points since the summer.

Clinton thinks that no one is asking for a blank check. “I believe that the Ukrainians have proven that they are a really good investment for the United States. They aren’t asking us to fight their war. They’re fighting it themselves. They are asking us to defend ourselves so that we can actually win.

The speech “connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to get us to think about all the families in Ukraine that will be huddled in the cold and to know that they are on the front lines of freedom right now,” Clinton said on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” Wednesday.

She hoped that they would send more than one. She noted there’s “been some reluctance in the past” by the US and NATO to provide advanced equipment, but added “We’ve seen with our own eyes how effective Ukrainian military is.”

Clinton met Putin when he was US Secretary of state and said the leader was difficult to predict as the war turned in favor of the Ukrainians.

Clinton said that they will have bodies of Russian conscripts in the fight in Ukraine.

More than $3 billion in military assistance to the Ukraine has been announced by the administration. The Secretary of State said in a statement on Friday that the United States would be withdrawing Bradley fighting vehicles and other items to support the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.

Blinken said the administration would work with Congress to “to provide an additional $907 million of Foreign Military Financing under the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022.”

A Year After the Crime: The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict and the Impact of McCarthy’s Legacy on the United States and the Ukraine

Several Republican members who switched their votes to support McCarthy on Friday said they are encouraged by a framework of an agreement, but provided no specifics about the deal and said talks are ongoing.

It was higher than the President asked for, as a result of the Democrats’ concern that additional funding wouldn’t be as forthcoming in a GOP-led House. In some ways, that number was an insurance policy against Republican resistance and the view inside the White House was that that figure would sustain US support for several months.

Administration officials are doubtful additional Ukraine aid will be passed this fiscal year. They think this $45 billion package will be the last major aid package for the country.

Changes to the budgetary process could cause Congress to be unable to pass new aid come September, while some conservatives have said they will oppose any new Ukraine funding.

The problem appears to be signs of trouble for Ukraine assistance moving forward, as many of those who have fought the speakership have spoken out against additional assistance, one diplomat told CNN.

“This is a harbinger for a protracted legislative paralysis,” the diplomat said, adding that “the Freedom Caucus – which is not particularly pro-Ukrainian – has just demonstrated its clout.”

Others noted they were watching closely to see the kinds of maneuvers McCarthy would make to secure the role, which could potentially include cuts to aid.

A diplomat told CNN they are worried about the policy concessions McCarthy will make, and if they will affect the US role in the world.

A third diplomat is worried that the House Rules Committee could be given to legislators who advocate against more aid to Ukraine, which would make it difficult to pass additional assistance legislation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was an awesome Christmas present for his country. Lawmakers in Ukraine told CNN they don’t think the future of assistance is in danger, as the past support for their country has been bipartisan.

It had only been less than a week since Russia invasion of Ukraine when Biden made his way to Capitol Hill for the speech. “He made a huge mistake,” Biden said. “He thought he could roll into Ukraine and the world would roll over. He found a wall of strength he didn’t expect.

A year into the conflict in Ukraine, both the reception Biden gets in Congress and his message have changed reflecting domestic politics.

A few members of Congress wore blue and yellow ribbons on their lapels this year. But a year ago, the House chamber was awash in the colors of Ukraine’s flag as lawmakers gave multiple vigorous and bipartisan standing ovations for Biden’s message on the war.

Biden talked about the war for less than two minutes. He received bipartisan applause when he asked whether Americans would “stand for the defense of democracy” — but not all members stood.

Biden said that he would not tolerate corrupt leaders of the violent regime who stole billions from the country.

“Ambassador, America is united in our support for your country,” Biden said, when recognizing Ukraine’s ambassador Oksana Markarova — who was a special guest for both speeches.

The Beijing top diplomat is ready to present a peace proposition for Ukraine, the U.S. ambassador and China’s foreign minister told reporters in Munich Security Conference on Saturday

Republican strategist Ryan Williams said this sentiment has given pause to some Republicans from conservative districts who had supported the war, but are now worried about wider public support among their constituencies.

“It is having an impact with the base. “That could be a primary issue for Republicans if that continues to grow.” “The key is to make sure that that it doesn’t become a big issue with Republicans, a litmus test issue, if you will, that could endanger incumbents who could face conservative primary challengers that may have a difference of opinion.”

Beijing is ready to present its peace proposition for Ukraine, its top diplomat announced Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, in a rare remark that referred to the Ukraine conflict as a war.

Wang said that Beijing will continue its work for peace, as long as the territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries are respected.

As Wang called on European countries to change their approach to the war in Beijing, many European Union leaders remained wary of Beijing.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, told CNN on Saturday that there was more proof that China was not working with Russia.

In September 2022, Putin conceded Beijing had “questions and concerns” over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of diverging views on the war.

The Chinese top diplomat will visit Russia this month for the first time since the war began, according to the foreign ministry.

The One-Year Anniversary of the War Between Ukraine and the US: A Remark on the Progress Making the Cold War a Little More Real

In a interview with CNN aired Sunday, McCaul, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that bipartisan support for Ukraine is still very strong.

But as the one-year anniversary of the war approaches, McCaul warned that hedging support for Ukraine could prolong the conflict, which could play into Russia’s advantages and allow anti-Ukraine dissent to build.

“The longer (Biden administration officials) drag this out, they play into (Russian leader Vladimir) Putin is holding his hands. The Texas Republican, speaking to CNN from theMunich Security Conference in Germany, said that the man wanted this to be a long, long war because he knew he would lose.

Asked by Brown if he believes the US is considering sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, McCaul replied, “I hope so,” and reiterated his concern over a drawn-out conflict between Russia and Ukraine while noting, “I think the momentum is building for this to happen.”

Turner said the resolution was like a letter of more than two dozen progressive House Democrats sent to the White House. The letter was retracted shortly after.

He said that there were a few on both sides who were cautious or wanted support to end. “There are 435 members of Congress. There are probably 400 that are for going in a different direction.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/19/politics/mike-turner-mike-mccaul-ukraine-military-cnntv/index.html

Towards a Comprehensive National Security Framework for a China that isn’t a Cold War: A View from a Dialogue of the Pentagon

McCaul also told CNN that the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that flew over US airspace before being shot down off the coast of South Carolina earlier this month contained parts manufactured in the United States and urged the US to restrict the flow of weapons technology to China.

A lot of this is taken from us. But we don’t have to sell them the very technology they can put in their advanced weapons systems to then turn against either Taiwan in the Pacific or eventually, possibly the United States of America. I think there’s great bipartisanship on this issue,” he added.

McCaul said that both the Democrats and the Republicans are in agreement that the two countries have to confront Chinese threats.

McCaul said he thinks we have a unique opportunity to be bipartisan on national security because of one of the greatest threats to this country.

No one wants a cold war, but that is not the issue. What we want is a China that is not going to be an aggressor state, that’s not going to be building up its military and threatening the United States, and certainly not making the negative comments that it’s making instead of just openly apologizing for sending a spy balloon over our most sensitive military sites,” Turner said.