Vladimir Putin formally announced the Kremlin intention to annex almost a fifth of Ukraine in blatant violation of international law

Russian President Vladimir Putin formally announced the Kremlin’s intention to annex nearly a fifth of Ukraine in blatant violation of international law.

The annexations are in the interest of the Kremlin. Moscow will be defending its territory from attacks by Ukraine, according to Mr. Putin and his top aides.

Reports out of the ground suggested that voting took place at gunpoint in some cases, though Putin attempted to claim that the referendums reflected the will of millions of people.

“I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me. Everyone needs to remember. Luhansk, Donbass, Kherson, and Zaporizhphua are some of the places where people are becoming citizens. Forever,” the Russian president said during the annexation ceremony Friday.

The president of Russia believed the annexation was a way of fixing a serious mistake made after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Putin’s logical option, Kortunov says, is to declare victory and get out on his own terms. But for this he needs a significant achievement on the ground. “Russia cannot simply get to where it was, on the 24 February of this year, say, okay, you know, that’s fine. Our mission is accomplished. We should go home and something will be presented to the public as a victory.

Russia will now, despite the widespread international condemnation, forge ahead with its plans to fly its flag over some 100,000 square kilometers (38,600 square miles) of Ukrainian territory – the largest forcible annexation of land in Europe since 1945.

The Russian leader spoke in the chandeliered St. George’s Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace — the same place where he declared in March 2014 that the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea was part of Russia.

Hundreds of Russian members of Parliament and regional governors sat in the audience for Mr. Putin’s speech, as well as many of his cabinet ministers and the four Russian-imposed leaders of the occupied Ukrainian regions.

Beyond the recent missile attacks, there is a laundry list of horrors Putin has launched that seems to have driven his nation further away from the civilized powers he once wanted to join.

He reeled off a litany of Western military actions stretching over centuries — from the British Opium War in China in the 19th century to Allied firebombings of Germany and the Vietnam and Korean Wars.

Putin’s Nuclear Warfare and the Dominance of Nuclear Forces in Ukraine: An Analysis of the “Putin’s War”

In response to an increasing amount of advanced Western weapons, economic, political and humanitarian aid to Kyiv, as well as what he saw as Western leaders’ inflammatory statements, Putin has periodically mentioned his potential use of nuclear weapons. Putin didn’t agree with the Human Rights Council member who asked him to promise that Russia would not be the first to use such weapons. He said if Russia agreed to not use their nuclear weapons first then they would not be able to use them again.

But with the ability to target major Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Russia has shown that it can still cause immense damage and dislocation. The conflict is one of the most dangerous phases since it was started. Tensions were already high from Putin’s earlier statements suggesting that tactical nuclear weapons remain on the table.

There is a celebration on Red Square on Friday. Official ratification of the decrees will happen next week, said Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman.

During the war in occupied territory, referendums were held in defiance of international law. Much of the provinces’ civilian populations has fled fighting since the war began in February, and people who did vote sometimes did so at gunpoint.

Cementing Russia’s hold over the two eastern regions, an area collectively known as the Donbas that Mr. Putin considers his primary prize, could allow the Kremlin to declare a victory at a time when hawks in Russia have criticized Russian forces for not doing enough to prevent recent breakneck gains by Ukrainian forces in the south and northeast of the country.

This possibility that Putin could be heralding a bloody new twist in a war that has gone through multiple strategic phases since the invasion in February was weighing heavy on the minds of political and military leaders in Washington Monday. Putin was unleashing warfare against civilians that evoked Europe’s 20th century horrors.

The history shows that any truce with Putin off the back of negotiations would be meaningless. “Point number one, please don’t trust Putin, that is what I told him from my personal experience communicating with him.” Certainly not to adhere to any agreement if it does not suit his ultimate end of seizing control of Ukraine.

Andrey Kortunov, who runs the Kremlin-backed Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow, sees it, too. “President Putin wants to end this whole thing as fast as possible,” he told CNN.

A lot of the best and most skilled people in every field have left Russia. This also includes writers, artists, and journalists, as well as some of the most creative technologists, scientists and engineers.

Traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia and long lines at border crossing into other countries speak to the growing backlash against Putin and the perception that he is no longer reading Russia’s mood.

Kortunov says he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin but that he understands the public mood over the huge costs and loss of life in the war. Why did we end up in this mess? We lost a lot of people.

He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.

The rain of fire against Ukrainian civilians on Monday was also chilling, given that it occurred following Putin’s latest nuclear threats and days of debate over whether he might use a tactical nuclear weapon. If he does not, it seems unlikely – given his obliviousness to civilian pain – that any such decision would be motivated by a desire to spare innocents from such a horrific weapon. Still, Kirby said that there was no indication that Russia was activating nuclear arms or that the US needed to change its own nuclear posture.

Seismology of the Russian Seabed: Putin’s 2020 Campaign and the Landfall of Lyman-Like Annexed Ukraine

Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.

The Danes and Germans dispatched warships to secure the area in a matter of hours after patches of sea were discovered.

The biggest leak in Russia’sNord Stream pipe is the largest one kilometer across, and has released industrial quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Brennan states that Russia is most likely responsible for the sabotage, and that it is a message from Putin to Europe. So who knows what he might be planning next.”

While Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, Putin kept Nord Stream 1 out of use as Russia tried to dial back its demands for supplies.

The war in Ukraine may have entered a new phase, and Putin may have his back against the wall, but an end to the conflict could still be a very long way off.

It was 2019. And the successful TV comedian turned commander in chief had traveled to Paris for a summit to negotiate a peace deal with Putin. Despite the doubts of many, Zelensky managed to walk away giving few concessions.

Volker expects Putin to pitch France and Germany first “to say, we need to end this war, we’re going to protect our territories at all costs, using any means necessary, and you need to put pressure on the Ukrainians to settle.”

Putin knows he is in a corner, but doesn’t seem to realize how small a space he has, and that of course is what’s most worrying – would he really make good on his nuclear threats?

The timing couldn’t have been worse. Putin lost Lyman just as he was publicly declaring that the Donetsk region – in which Lyman sits – was now annexed by Russia.

A day earlier, two powerful Putin supporters railed against the Kremlin and called for using harsher fighting methods because Lyman had fallen just as Moscow was declaring that the illegally annexed region it lies in would be Russian forever.

The soldiers that were interviewing on the Sunday broadcast said that they had been forced to retreat because they were fighting NATO soldiers.

The institute for the study of war noted that Russian battlefield setbacks, along with the unease in Russian society over mobilized, was changing the Russian information space. There has been criticism from both men in power as well as pro-war milbloggers who often provide a picture of battlefield realities for Russian forces.

The first casualty of war is truth. The Kremlin in Russia has been trying to sell their invasion of Ukraine to the public by engaging in false advertising.

The idea that Russia is fighting a broader campaign was repeated in an interview with Aleksandr Dugin, a far-right thinker whose daughter, also a prominent nationalist commentator, was killed by a car bomb in August.

The situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense, and this winter could potentially decide who wins the most titanic battles of forces in Europe since the Second World War. It’s worth looking at what’s going on right now.

Mr. Dugin, like Mr. Putin, has accused Western countries of damaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which ruptured after underwater explosions last month in what both European and Russian leaders have called an act of sabotage.

He said that the west accused them of blowing up the gas line themselves. “We must understand the geopolitical confrontation, the war, our war with the West on the scale and extent on which it is unfolding. In other words, we must join this battle with a mortal enemy who does not hesitate to use any means, including exploding gas pipelines.”

The nonstop messaging campaign may be working, at least for now. Many Russians are afraid of the West, said a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who is from Russia.

Russians on the right and left are unhappy with Putin given that he can be punished for speaking out against his military operation in Ukraine.

Voice of the Unity: The David v. Goliath Battle of the Ukrainian-Iran Ukrainian Autocracies (Gikitis)

The author is a world affairs columnist who was a producer and correspondent for CNN. She has an opinion column for World Politics Review and also writes for The Washington Post and CNN. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. Have a look at CNN’s opinion.

Two groups of protesters came together in London on Sunday. One was waving Ukrainian flags; the other Iranian flags. They chanted, “All together we will win.” when they met.

The struggles of the Ukrainian and Iranian people have inspired support around the world because they hold the moral high ground. Their anthem against fascism and brutality against their opponents has gone viral in this era of social media.

These David v. Goliath battles show bravery that is almost unimaginable to the rest of us – and is inspiring equally courageous support in places like Afghanistan.

In Iran, the spark was the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last month. Known as “Zhina,” she died in the custody of morality police who detained her for breaking the relentlessly, violently enforced rules requiring women to dress modestly.

In defiant defiance, Iranian women have stripped off their hijabs, danced around fires in the night, and thrown them into the flames.

Women are climbing on cars, waving their hijab in the air, and gathering crowds of supporters in city streets and universities, as security forces attempt to silence them.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/opinions/iran-ukraine-autocracies-struggle-democracy-ghitis/index.html

The fate of the Russian and Iranian regimes in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, a decade after the Russian invasion of the Crimea de Sitter, Syria?

It was less than a decade ago that Russia entered Syria’s civil war to aid the Assad regime, like Iran did.

A little over seven months later, Russia’s trajectory looks like a trail of war crimes, with hundreds of bombed hospitals, schools, civilian convoys, and mass graves filled with Ukrainians.

The repressive regimes in Moscow and Tehran are now being supported by a group of autocrats and have become an isolated pariah within the world.

Is it any wonder that Putin’s first trip outside the former Soviet Union since the start of his Ukraine war was to Iran? Iran is believed to have supplied Russia with drones that were used to kill Ukrainians.

These are two regimes that, while very different in their ideologies, have much in common in their tactics of repression and their willingness to project power abroad.

There have been deaths of Putin critics. Many have fallen out of windows. According to freedom house, Russia and Iran have become leading practitioners of global repressive practices that kill opponents on their foreign soil.

For people in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, there’s more than passing interest in the admittedly low probability that the Iranian regime could fall. It would be transformative for their countries and their lives, heavily influenced by Tehran. Iran’s constitution calls for spreading its revolution.

The Cost of Chaos: The Isolated Putin, the Afghans, and the U.S. from the G19 to the G7

Putin is becoming isolated on the world stage. He was the only head of state to stay away from a session of the G20, which Zelensky dubbed the “G19.” Even though Putin wanted a return to the G7, it seems like a distant dream now. The comparisons with North Korea were more striking because of the ban on 100 Canadians, including Canadian-American Jim Carrey.

Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. Bergen is the author of The Cost of Chaos. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

With his allies expressing concern, and hundreds of thousands of citizens fleeing partial mobilization, an increasingly isolated Putin has once again taken to making chaotic speeches offering his distorted view of history.

(Indeed, his revisionist account defines his rationale for the war in Ukraine, which he asserts has historically always been part of Russia – even though Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.)

When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, they planned to install a puppet government and get out of the country as soon as it was feasible, as explained in a recent, authoritative book about the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, “Afghan Crucible” by historian Elisabeth Leake.

The US initially refused to escalate support for the Afghan resistance fearing a bigger conflict with the Soviet Union. It took until 1986 for the CIA to arm the Afghans with highly effective anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, which ended the Soviets’ total air superiority, eventually forcing them to withdraw from Afghanistan three years later.

The reality is that the US and western alliance must look into the future as if Putin and those in the Kremlin could succeed him. How long will the commitment to the fight last?

The Russians have largely figured out the threat. Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Defense Program at the Center for New American, said that the Russians have taken their big ammo depots back outside of the range because they were adjusting to the presence of Americans on the battlefield.

Putin’s defeat in the Russo-Japanese War in 1917 and its consequences for Russia’s position in the Great Patriotic War

Putin is also surely aware that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was hastened by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier.

Looking further back into the history books, he must also know that the Russian loss in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 weakened the Romanov monarchy. Czar Nicholas II’s feckless leadership during the First World War then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. Subsequently, much of the Romanov family was killed by a Bolshevik firing squad.

The former US President boasted that the Russian leader was a genius for declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine independent just two days before the invasion.

One of the central features of Putinism is a fetish for World War II, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War. The Russian party of war admires the use of punishment battalions and the brutal tactics employed by the Red Army to fight the Wehrmacht.

Putin’s gamble may lead to a third dissolution of the Russian empire, which happened first in 1917 as the First World War wound down, and again in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union.

In a recent interview with Russian arch-propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, the head of the defense committee in Russia’s State Duma demanded that officials cease lying and level with the Russian public.

The Ministry of Defense was accused of lying about Ukrainian cross-border strikes in Russian regions.

The Belgorod region is near the border with Ukraine and Valuyki is there. Kyiv has generally adopted a neither-confirm-nor-deny stance when it comes to striking Russian targets across the border.

There is no need for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to be shadowed because incompetent commanders, who did not bother, and were not accountable for the processes and gaps that exist today, are not traitors. “Indeed, many say that the Minister of Defense [Sergei Shoigu], who allowed this situation to happen, could, as an officer, shoot himself. The word officer is not familiar to many.

But after Russia’s retreat from the strategic Ukrainian city of Lyman, Kadyrov has been a lot less shy about naming names when it comes to blaming Russian commanders.

Writing on Telegram, Kadyrov personally blamed Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin, the commander of Russia’s Central Military District, for the debacle, accusing him of moving his headquarters away from his subordinates and failing to adequately provide for his troops.

“The Russian information space has significantly deviated from the narratives preferred by the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that things are generally under control,” ISW noted in its recent analysis.

Kadyrov – who recently announced that he had been promoted by Putin to the rank of colonel general – has been one of the most prominent voices arguing for the draconian methods of the past. He said in a Telegram post that he would give the Russian government extraordinary wartime powers if he had his way.

“If it were my will, I would declare martial law throughout the country and use any weapon, because today we are at war with the entire NATO bloc” Kadyrov said in a post.

The blasts will be accompanied by concerns that Putin may seek to escalate the conflict in Ukraine, after Moscow’s stuttering ground campaign and the damage to the Crimean bridge dealt a major blow to the Russian President.

Russian retaliation has grown as the Ukrainians have continued to push back Russian units which were seized in the early days of the war.

The bridge explosion came after a Ukrainian counteroffensive in which key areas of Russian-controlled territory have been seized.

For several hours on Monday morning Kyiv’s subway system was suspended, with underground stations serving as bunkers. But the air raid alert in the city was lifted at midday, as rescue workers sought to pull people from the rubble caused by the strikes.

Ukrainian Emergency Services and Foreign Policy Comments on the “Bridge Explosions of a Terrorist” by Russian Prime Minister Demys Shmygal

Demys Shmygal, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, said Monday that as of 11 a.m. local time, a total of 11 “crucial infrastructure facilities” in eight regions had been damaged.

As of Monday afternoon, the electricity supply had been cut in Lviv, Poltava, Sumy, and Ternopil, said the Ukrainian State Emergency Services. Electricity was “partially disrupted” in the rest of the country.

On Monday, a day after describing the bridge explosions as a terrorist attack, Putin held an operational meeting of his Security Council.

The Russian-appointed head of annexed Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, said he had “good news” Monday, claiming that Russia’s approaches to what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine “have changed.”

“I have been saying from the first day of the special military operation that if such actions to destroy the enemy’s infrastructure had been taken every day, we would have finished everything in May and the Kyiv regime would have been defeated,” he added.

The air raid sirens will not abate. Rockets continue to strike. Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded. I ask that you don’t leave your shelters. Take care of your family and stay safe. Let’s hang in there and be strong,” Zelensky added.

The EU Foreign Policy Chief, Josep BorrellFontelles, stated that there will be additional military support from the EU.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was targeting innocent civilians in various cities. The Netherlands condemns these acts. Putin does not seem to understand that the will of the Ukrainian people is unbreakable.”

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the attacks “another unacceptable escalation of the war and, as always, civilians are paying the highest price.”

CNN Follows Ukraine: Sokolev Spikes, Shots, and Fireballs on City Buildings in Zaporizhia

The G7 group of nations will hold an emergency meeting via video conference on Tuesday, the office of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed to CNN, and Zelensky said on Twitter that he would address that meeting.

Editor’s Note: Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He contributes to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN gives you more opinion.

The strikes occurred as people headed to work and while kids were being dropped off at schools. A friend in Kyiv texted me that she had just exited a bridge span 10 minutes before it was struck.

As of midday local time, the area around my office in Odesa remained eerily quiet in between air raid sirens, with reports that three missiles and five kamikaze drones were shot down. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).

Zaporizhzhia, a city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit with multiple strikes on apartment buildings as people slept on Monday. At least 17 people were killed and several dozens injured.

In a video filmed outside his office Monday, a defiant President Volodymyr Zelensky said it appeared many of the 100 or so missile strikes across Ukraine were aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at least 11 important infrastructure facilities have been damaged and some provinces are without power.

In scenes reminiscent of the early days of the war when Russian forces neared the capital, some Kyiv media outlets temporarily moved their operations to underground bomb shelters. In one metro station serving as a shelter, large numbers of people took cover on platforms as a small group sang patriotic Ukrainian songs.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

Just as many regions of Ukraine were starting to roar back to life, and with countless asylum seekers returning home, the attacks risk causing another blow to business confidence.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/opinions/putin-russia-war-ukraine-strikes-crimea-bridge-bociurkiw/index.html

The reaction of Putin to the explosion of the Ukraine’s longest road bridge: Is this a threat to the Kremlin?

Hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive, record-breaking infrastructure projects seems to be a penchant of dictators. In his capacity as President, Putin personally opened the Europe’s longest bridge by driving over it. The world’s longest sea crossing bridge was built after China reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

Sitting still was never an option for Putin, he was consumed by self-interest. He responded in the only way he knows how, by unleashing more death and destruction, with the force that probably comes natural to a former KGB operative.

Putin has been put on thin ice by increasing criticism at home, and that was an act of desperation.

In late August the chief of the main intelligence unit of the defense ministry told Roman that by the end of the year we had to enter the peninsula.

It is important that Washington and other allies use phone diplomacy to persuade China and India to reject the use of more deadly weapons, because they have some leverage over Putin.

A humanitarian crisis that will affect throughout Europe will only be worsened by a lack of these measures. A weak reaction will be viewed as a sign that the Kremlin is able to weaponize energy, migration and food.

The rush-hour attack on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure as a signal for Russian aggression in the war on annexed Russian-occupied territory

Furthermore, high tech defense systems are needed to protect Kyiv and crucial energy infrastructure around the country. There is an urgent need to protect heating systems.

Turkey and the Gulf states which receive many Russian tourists need to be pressured to come on board because the time has come for the West to further ostracize Russia.

The attacks snatched away the semblance of normality that city dwellers, who spent months earlier in the war in subways turned into air raid shelters, have managed to restore to their lives and raised fears of new strikes.

The targets on Monday had little military value and were in fact a reflection of Putin’s need to find new targets because of his inability to cause victories on the battlefield.

The bombing of power installations, in particular, Monday seemed to be an unsubtle hint of the misery the Russian President could cause as winter sets in, while his forces retreat in the face of Ukrainian troops using Western arms.

After sending billions of dollars of arms and kits to Ukraine, the US and its allies must now respond to attacks on civilians which killed at least 14 people, after already sending billions of dollars more to fight in the proxy war with Moscow.

The White House did not specify what kind of air systems the president offered, but he told the Ukrainian president that they would help defend against Russian air attacks.

John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, suggested Washington was looking favorably on Ukraine’s requests and was in touch with the government in Kyiv almost every day. “We do the best we can in subsequent packages to meet those needs,” he told CNN’s Kate Bolduan.

Kirby wasn’t able to say if Putin was shifting his strategy from a losing battle to a campaign to kill civilians and cause destruction in Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, though he claimed that it was a trend that had already been in the works.

“It likely was something that they had been planning for quite some time. Kirby said that the explosion on the bridge wasn’t to say that it sped up their planning.

But French President Emmanuel Macron underscored Western concerns that Monday’s rush-hour attacks in Ukraine could be the prelude to another pivot in the conflict.

Retired Lt. Col Alexander Vindman, former director for European Affairs on the National Security Council, said that by attacking targets designed to hurt Ukrainian morale and energy infrastructure, Putin was sending a message about how he will prosecute the war in the coming months.

“So imagine if we had modern equipment, we probably could raise the number of those drones and missiles downed and not kill innocent civilians or wound and injure Ukrainians,” Zhovkva said.

A campaign against civilians by Putin would likely break Ukrainian spirits and lead to a new flood of refugees in Western Europe that would cause NATO to lose some of its support for Ukraine.

Revenge doesn’t seem to be an appropriate way to act on or off the battlefield and in the final analysis it’s more likely to wreak havoc on Russia that is irreversibly.

The end of the world: A warning against the return of terror to the lives of Ukrainians from a new round of Russian “terror”

Olena Gnes, a mother of three who is documenting the war on YouTube, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper live from her basement in Ukraine on Monday that she was angry at the return of fear and violence to the lives of Ukrainians from a new round of Russian “terror.”

“This is just another terror to provoke maybe panic, to scare you guys in other countries or to show to his own people that he is still a bloody tyrant, he is still powerful and look what fireworks we can arrange,” she said.

The knee-jerk reaction to these attacks — “strike back at the barbarian Russians” — must be held in check. Now is the time to press for a cease-fire.

In the age of nuclear weapons, all accepted modes of just war — self-defense, justice and punishment for wrongdoers, recovery of international borders; in essence, all notions of right and wrong — are irrelevant. It really doesn’t matter who was the aggressor, who the aggrieved, who committed crimes against civilians, who was merely acting in self-defense.

It doesn’t really matter who is right or wrong in a missile exchange that could result in hundreds of millions of deaths. Historians will never be able to tell the story.

President Biden should publicly muse about alternatives and dispatch his diplomats immediately to Russia to give Vladimir Putin off ramps. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine must be pressured to agree to an immediate cease-fire.

Autoparadise in Kyiv: Carnage from a Terrorism-Tennant Regime in the First Russian Invasion

State television flaunted the suffering on Monday. It showed a scene of carnage in central Kyiv, along with empty store shelves and a forecast for months of freezing temperatures there.

It is not certain that mobilized forces will be of no use. They could be used in support roles to reduce the burden on the remaining parts of the army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They are, however, unlikely to become a capable fighting force. There are signs that there are discipline problems in the Russian garrisons.

The carnage unleashed by President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion is spreading far past the front lines, thanks to the strikes in Belgorod and the destruction of the municipal administration building in Donetsk.

The Russian Defense Ministry described the shootings as a terrorist attack, according to the state media outlets. It said the two gunmen were from a former Soviet nation and had fired on the soldiers during target practice at a firing range.

David A. Andelman: President Putin Prolonges War in the European Union and Chancellor Scholz is setting a Conference Call

Editor’s Note: David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor, author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. His views are his own in this commentary. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

European Union powers reached an agreement early on Friday in the Belgian capital to control energy prices that have risen due to embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies.

These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.

After leaving the summit, the French president conceded that the European Commission had only been given a clear mandate to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Germany is skeptical of any price caps. Now energy ministers must work out details with a Germany concerned such caps would encourage higher consumption – a further burden on restricted supplies.

These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. The Kremlin thinks that Europe fails to agree on essentials, which could be central to achieving success from their viewpoint.

Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Berlusconi, a new prime minister and the anti-Russian crisis in Italy, as outlined by a U.S. Secretary of State

There is a new government in Italy. The first woman to be Italy’s prime minister tried to downplay the post fascist aura of her party. One of her coalition partners has a lot of respect for Putin.

Berlusconi, in a secretly recorded audio tape, said he’d returned Putin’s gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine, adding that “I knew him as a peaceful and sensible person,” in the LaPresse audio clip.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

Poland and Hungary, two longstanding allies of the ultra-right, have different opinions about the EU’s policies and are at odds over Ukraine. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

In Washington, Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House if the Republicans take control, believes that people are going to sit in a recession and not write a blank check. They just won’t do it.”

The influential Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open negotiations with Russia on ending the conflict, while its troops are still in the country and its missiles and drones are hitting into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. The Secretary of State spoke with the Ukrainian counterpart about renewing America’s support.

The US has given more than $60 billion since Biden took office, but only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

The Russian’s matters haven’t improved since then. On Monday, the British Defense Ministry, which provides some of the most up-to-date and accurate intelligence on the Russian military in Ukraine, reported that, “Both Russian defensive and offensive capability continues to be hampered by severe shortages of munitions and skilled personnel.”

At the same time, the West is turning up the pressure on Russia. Last Thursday, the State Department released a detailed report on the impact of sanctions and export controls strangling the Russian military-industrial complex.

The report said that Russian production of hypersonic missiles had stopped because of the lack of necessary semi-conductors. Plants that produce anti-aircraft systems have stopped making them, and Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.

Putin has also tried, though he has been stymied at most turns, to establish black market networks abroad to source what he needs to fuel his war machine – much as Kim Jong-un has done in North Korea. The United States has already uncovered and recently sanctioned vast networks of such shadow companies and individuals centered in hubs from Taiwan to Armenia, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, France, and Luxembourg to source high-tech goods for Russia’s collapsing military-industrial complex.

Individuals and companies were charged with trying to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

Russian Defense Mission to Ukraine in Light of the EU-EU War on Relativistic Nuclear Spectroscopy: What Do We Need to Know?

The first missile to have landed in Poland was thought to have been a Ukrainian anti-aircraft rocket, which may or may not have been shot down by a Russian missile, which is thought to have flown a short distance from the city of Lviv. President Zelensky has said that the missile was not Ukrainian.

One thing is clear, whatever the circumstances of the missile. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Wednesday.

A growing number of Russian soldiers have rebelled against what they are being told to do and refuse to fight. The defense ministry believes the Russian troops may shoot retreating or deserting soldiers.

A hotline and Telegram channel called “I want to live” has taken off after launching as a Ukrainian military intelligence project, according to reports.

One leading Russian journalist, who has settled in Berlin after leaving his home, told me last week that he is prepared to accept the reality and may never return to his homeland.

The country of material resources that the West wants to deprive is Russia, which is the largest importer of oil and natural gas in the world. Ursula von der Leyen told the G20 that the European Commission has learned its lesson that dependency is unsustainable and that they want reliable and forward looking connections.

Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. On Monday, word began circulating in aerospace circles that the long-stalled joint French-German project for a next-generation jet fighter at the heart of the Future Combat Air System – Europe’s largest weapons program – was beginning to move forward.

Nine months in, Russian hopes of a swift seizure have been well and truly dashed, its army largely on the defensive across more than 600 miles of battle lines strung along the eastern and southern reaches of Ukraine.

The only way for the Russian leader to victory right now is through a truce or negotiations.

Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the CNA think tank and a leading expert on the Russian military, told me in an interview that a premature truce allows both parties to re-arm.

Already, Russia is beginning to rearm, experts say. “Ammunition availability” was one of the “most determinative aspects of this war,” said Kofman. You can’t make them in a month if you burn through 9 million rounds. So the issue is what is the ammunition production rate and what can be mobilized?” he added.

According to Kofman, the manufacture of munitions, which have been a staple of the exchanges along Ukrainian front lines, has switched from two to three factories a day in Russia. This suggests that “they have the component parts or otherwise they wouldn’t be going to double and triple shifts,” he said.

Seizing the moment: what would you say to the Ukrainians if you can’t negotiate with them, or what will they tell us about the Russians?

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. The US Joint Chief of Staff General Mark Milley spoke recently about seizing the moment.

Petro Poroshenko told the Council on Foreign Relations that he wanted to get a better idea of how Ukrainians understand negotiations. When a murderer comes to your home, kills your wife, rapes your daughter and then opens the door to the second floor, you should come here. Let us have a discussion. What reaction would you make?

General Mick Ryan, fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told me that the Russians would be helped by the time to regroup and rearm. “They have been at it hard for nine months. Their forces are tired.

Jeremy Fleming, head of Britain’s top secret electronic espionage agency GCHQ made that statement last month. “We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out,” said Fleming.

The French paper Le Monde has done a major analysis and found that the Russian arsenal of weaponry has been damaged by the attacks of the Ukrainians.

That’s “basically any big command post or ammo dump they pulled back beyond the 80-kilometer range,” he explained. And in many cases, just inside Russian territory – which Ukraine has given Washington assurances it would not target with rocket systems supplied by the US.

He stated that the Russians are willing to swap soldiers and shells. The Russians are expecting that “over time, NATO and the Western allies and Ukrainians won’t be willing to continue to make those trades. Eventually it will push them to negotiate. That is Putin’s bet, that’s what I think.

But at some point, they’ll also get tired of this war, he added. And the Russian mindset may become “we may not have everything we wanted. We’ll annex a large portion of the Donbas into Russia, and we’ll hold onto the peninsula. And I think that’s kind of their bet right now.”

A truce would also allow the West to replenish rapidly deplete arsenals that have been drained by materiel sent to Ukraine, even upgrade what has been supplied.

But were the war to resume months or years from now, there’s a real question as to whether the US and its allies would be prepared to return to a conflict that many are beginning to wish was already over.

Moscow’s Special Military Operation in Kyiv, Ukraine, and “The Failure of Nuclear Forces in the Balkans,” Putin told Human Rights Council

KYIV, Ukraine — Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Wednesday that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected but said it has succeeded in seizing new territory and added that his country’s nuclear weapons are deterring escalation of the conflict.

In a televised meeting with his Human Rights Council, Putin described the land gains as a significant result for Russia and stated that the Sea of Azov has become Russia’s internal sea. In one of his frequent historic references to a Russian leader he admires, he added that “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water.

If it does not use it first it will not be the second to use it because the risk of a nuclear strike on our territories will be very low.

Putin denied suggestions that his previous nuclear weapons comments amounted to saber-rattling, saying that they were a factor of deterrence.

“We haven’t gone mad. We are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are,” Putin said. He added, without elaborating: “We have them, and they are more advanced and state-of-the-art than what any other nuclear power has.”

In his televised remarks, the Russian leader didn’t address Russia’s battlefield setbacks or its attempts to cement control over the seized regions but acknowledged problems with supplies, treatment of wounded soldiers and limited desertions.

Russian troops have withdrawn not only from the Kyiv area and around the country’s largest city, Kharkiv, but from a large part of the Kherson region. Another problem for Putin are attacks this week against air force bases deep inside Russia. He put much of the country, especially border areas, on security alert recently, and fresh signs emerged Wednesday that Russian officials are strengthening border defensive positions.

In the Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the governor posted photos of new concrete anti-tank barriers — known as “dragon’s teeth” — in open fields. On Tuesday, the governor had said a fire broke out at an airport in the region after a drone strike. Workers and officials were organizing self-defense units in Belgorod. Russian air defenses shot down incoming rockets after the governor of Belgorod claimed that it had seen a lot of blasts from cross-border attacks.

Ukraine hit targets in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, including a church reported to be used as a Russian military base. Officials said that Ukrainian forces used long-range shelling in order to hit targets in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Moscow responded with strikes by artillery, multiple rocket launchers, missiles, tanks and mortars at residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, worsening damage to the power grid. The temperature in eastern areas where Ukrenergo was performing repairs had fallen to as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius.

Putin talked about his order of 300,000 volunteers to bolster forces in Ukraine at his meeting. Some 150,000 have been deployed so far in combat zones, while others are still undergoing training. “There is no need for the Defense Ministry or the country to do that”, said Putin as he addressed speculation that the Kremlin could be preparing another mobilization.

Many are watching to see if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows through on his threat of banning the Russian Orthodox Church inUkraine because of the church’s ties to Moscow.

State of Ukraine vs. Putin: Reflections from Volodymyr Zelensky in Moscow during the December 11 U.S.-Russia War

The president of the European Commission and the prime minister of Norway will be hosted by the president of France.

Also in France, on Tuesday, the country is set to co-host a conference with Ukraine in support of Ukrainians through the winter, with a video address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Following Brittney Griner’s release from Russian prison, fans, friends and family are celebrating the basketball player’s return to the U.S. Meanwhile, some Republican politicians have been complaining about the prisoner swap and other U.S. citizens still held by Russia.

The Russian oil revenue measures took effect. There is a European Union embargo on most Russian oil imports and a Russian oil price cap.

Russian forces turned the city of Bakhmut into burned ruins, Zelenskyy said. There was intense fighting as Russia tried to advance on the city.

President Zelenskyy had a phone call with President Biden on Dec. 11, as well as the leaders of France and Turkey, in an apparent stepping up of diplomacy over the 9 1/2-month-long Russian invasion.

The recaps can be read here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen to the State of Ukrainepodcast for updates throughout the day.

Putin’s comments Thursday followed a historic trip by Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington, where the Ukrainian president gave an impassioned speech to Congress appealing for greater US support for the war effort.

In Paris at the time, I witnessed how Zelensky pulled up to the Élysée Palace in a modest Renault, while Putin motored in with an ostentatious armored limousine. The host, the French President, hugged Putin but only shook hands with Zelensky.

Zelensky is the brand. The Ukrainian president wears olive green t-shirts when meeting people from Vogue journalists to military commanders and world leaders.

Zelensky grew up in rough neighborhoods of central Ukraine where he learned how to fight back when he was teased.

He knew what he needed to do after being bullied by Putin, said Yevhen Hlibovytsky, a former journalist and founder of the Kyiv-based think.

This, after all, is the leader who when offered evacuation by the US as Russia launched its full-scale invasion, quipped: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

The Heady Campaign of the Ukrainian Zelensky in the Fog of War: His Conversation with King Charles and a Global Audience

Amid the fog of war, it all seems a long, long way since the heady campaign celebration in a repurposed Kyiv nightclub where a fresh-faced Zelensky thanked his supporters for a landslide victory. He looked in a state of disbelief while standing on the stage with the confetti.

Around half of the Ukrainians said they didn’t think Zelensky would lead them into war when Russian troops began amass on their borders. It was a rating that was likely influenced by him failing to maintain his promises and launching an effective fight against corruption in the judiciary.

His bubble includes many people from his previous professional life as a TV comedian in the theatrical group Kvartal 95. Even in the midst of war, a press conference was held on the platform of a metro station to emphasize a wartime setting.

As for his ability to comforter in chief, I remember well his nightly televised addresses that soothed the nerves of the people of Lviv during the air raid sirens and explosions.

Zelensky is using hoodies and T-shirts to project his confidence and competence in a modern way, to a younger, global audience that recognizes it as such, said Chrisman-Campbell.

Journeying to where her husband can’t, Zelenska has shown herself to be an effective communicator in international fora – projecting empathy, style and smarts. Most recently, she met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Holy Family in London. (Curiously, TIME magazine did not include Zelenska on the cover montage and gave only a passing reference in the supporting text).

Zelensky has a strong international influence but there are signs that it could be waning. For example, last week, in what analysts called a pivotal moment in geopolitics, the G7 imposed a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude – despite pleas from Zelensky that it should have been set at $30 in order to inflict more pain on the Kremlin.

Within Ukraine, the economy continues to stumble from the impact of war and persistent missile and drone attacks on critical power infrastructure – including at least 76 strikes on Friday. As winter bites, millions of Ukrainians are enduring long periods without heat, electricity and water. If the Ukrainians can overcome this hardship for another two to five years, then they will be well-poised to win the war.

The Zelensky administration has a lot of work ahead of it, if they want to win the hearts and minds of most Ukrainians. For the time being, and true to form, the tough guy from Kryvyi Rih shows no sign of backing down.

“Paradoxically, Zelensky achieved the thing that Putin most wanted to achieve but failed … to rally support domestically with a patriotic war in order to deflect and distract from his abject failures at home. In Putin’s mind, to be shown up by a mere ‘decadent’ comedian must be excruciatingly painful for him,” New York-based geopolitical and business analyst Michael Popow told me.

As Zelensky said in a recent nightly video address: “No matter what the aggressor intends to do, when the world is truly united, it is then the world, not the aggressor, determines how events develop.”

The speech “connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to get us to think about all the families in Ukraine that will be huddled in the cold and to know that they are on the front lines of freedom right now,” Clinton said on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” Wednesday.

Her comments came after Zelensky delivered a historic speech from the US Capitol, expressing gratitude for American aid in fighting Russian aggression since the war began – and asking for more.

“I think around now, what [Putin] is considering is how to throw more bodies, and that’s what they will be – bodies of Russian conscripts – into the fight in Ukraine,” Clinton said.

“I hope that they will send more than one,” she added. She noted there’s “been some reluctance in the past” by the US and NATO to provide advanced equipment, but added “We’ve seen with our own eyes how effective Ukrainian military is.”

Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.

The war in Ukraine approaches ten months and Moscow said that it is set for a long confrontation with Russia.

Russia’s foreign ministry condemned what it called the “monstrous crimes” of the “regime in Kyiv,” after US President Joe Biden promised more military support to Ukraine during Zelensky’s summit at the White House on Wednesday.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that no matter how much military support the West provides to the Ukrainian government, “they will achieve nothing.”

Zakharova stated that the tasks set within the framework of the special military operation would be fulfilled due to the situation on the ground.

“Patriots are a defensive weapons system that will help Ukraine defend itself as Russia sends missile after missile and drone after drone to try and destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and kill Ukrainian civilians,” she said. “If Russia doesn’t want their missiles shot down, Russia should stop sending them into Ukraine.”

On Wednesday, the Biden administration said it would provide additional military assistance to the Ukranian government, including the first shipment of a Patriot Air Defense System. It’s one of the most advanced and expensive defense systems provided by the U.S.

There weren’t any real calls for peace. But during his address to the US Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky did stress that “we need peace,” reiterating the 10-point plan devised by Ukraine.

He said Zelenskyy’s visit showed that the US is fighting a proxy war with Russia and there were no calls for peace.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy returned from Washington, D.C. — having secured billions of dollars in U.S. aid and multiple standing ovations in Congress — the Kremlin was quick to criticize the trip.

The Kremlin has also been selling that line to the Russian public, who is largely buying it, says Sergey Radchenko, a Russian history professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Dismissing accusations of a proxy war, Sloat says Zelenskyy and Ukraine have made clear that they want a “just peace,” and all the U.S. has been doing is help the country defend itself against Russian aggression.

Moscow had warned last week that it would see the reported delivery of Patriot missiles to Ukraine as “another provocative move by the U.S.” Does Sloat worry this could provoke a Russian escalation?

After Putin signed a censorship law that makes it a crime to create fake news about invasions, critics say that the word war has effectively been banned in Russia.

Putin said his goal was not to spin the military conflict but to end it. We have strived for this and will continue to do so.

Nikita Yuferev, a lawmaker in St. Petersburg who fled Russia because of his antiwar stance, asked Russian authorities to prosecute Putin for spreading fake information about the army.

There was no decree to end the special military operation. “Several thousand people have already been condemned for such words about the war.”

A US official tells CNN that Putin’s remark was likely a slip of the tongue and not intentional. However, officials will be watching closely to see what figures inside the Kremlin say about it in the coming days.

The Kremlin would make a lot of investments in the military according to Shoigu and Putin. The initiatives include increasing the size of the armed forces, accelerating weapons programs and deploying a new generation of hypersonic missiles to prepare Russia for what Putin called “inevitable clashes” with its adversaries.