The David v. Goliath Battle: A Momentous Rejoinder between the Iranian and Ukrainian Demonstrations

Editor’s Note: Editor’s note: Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a columnist for The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. CNN has opinions on it.

Two groups of demonstrators came together on the same day. Two people were waving Iranian and Ukrainian flags. They together chanted “All together we will win” when they met.

For decades autocrats have been gaining ground while democracies looked almost spent, in retreat. When we least anticipated it, there was a ferocious pushback against two of the most brazen tyrannies. In Ukraine and in Iran, the people have decided to defy the odds for the sake of their dignity, freedom and self-determination.

The bravery displayed in the David v. Goliath battles is almost comparable to that shown by the rest of us.

The spark of democracy in the Middle East: What Putin and Russia are up against in Syria, Syria, Iraq and Yemen? An analysis by Niloofar Hamedi

The death of a young woman last month in Iran sparked the spark. She died in the custody of morality police who had charged her with breaking the rules that required women to dress modestly.

In scenes of exhilarated defiance, Iranian women have danced around fires in the night, shedding the hijab – the headcover mandated by the regime – and tossing it into the flames.

Their peaceful uprising is not really about the hijab; it’s about cutting the shackles of oppression, which is why men have joined them in large numbers, even as the regime kills more and more protesters.

Less than a decade ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin entered Syria’s civil war to help the dictator, and that is how Iran ended up.

As Washington warned that Zelensky was a “prime target for Russian aggression,” the Ukrainian president sent a message to his country and to the rest of the world, vowing to stay.

Supplying a high-end capability like the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine is a solid sign of commitment by the US – and, as such, another step in the US steadily overcoming Russia’s successful efforts at deterring it from aiding Ukraine.

Russia is looking like a trail of war crimes with hundreds of bombed hospitals, schools, civilian convoys and mass graves.

The repressive regimes in Moscow and Tehran are now seen as pariahs by most of the world and supported by many autocrats.

Iran is going to start sending even more powerful weapons to Russia in response to the battle against Ukraine, a western country monitoring Iran’s weapons program reported to CNN.

These are two regimes that, while very different in their ideologies, have much in common in their tactics of repression and their willingness to project power abroad.

Iran’s prisons are filled with regime critics and courageous journalists – including Niloofar Hamedi, first to report what happened to Mahsa Amini. In Russia as well, journalism is a deadly profession. So is criticizing Putin. Putin’s people created charges to keep Navalny in a colony after trying and failing to kill him.

For people in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, there’s more than passing interest in the admittedly low probability that the Iranian regime could fall. It would make a difference to their countries, which are heavily influenced by Tehran. Iran has a constitution that calls for spreading its revolution.

Now comes a new chapter in the international impact of the war in Ukraine. Some of Putin’s former friends in the far right have turned against him, but not all. Some far-right politicians and prominent figures in Europe and the US echo Putin’s claims about the war. Their hope is to leverage discontent – which could worsen as winter comes and heating prices rise.

Drones have played a significant role in the conflict since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February, but their use has increased since Moscow acquired the new drones from Iran over the summer.

Moscow knows that, in order to shore up its missile defenses, a percentage of projectiles are bound to get through.

The question of longevity and sustainability remains because it is unclear how long Iran can or would continue providing weaponry – including more advanced missiles – to Russia.

There were conflicting messages from the Ukrainian government as to how many missiles Russia fired. Mykhailo Podolyak, a top Ukrainian official, accused Russia of launching over 120 missiles to destroy critical infrastructure and kill civilians. The Ukrainian military admitted that the number was less than 70. One of the air defense rockets from Ukraine was reported to have landed on the territory of the Republic ofBelarus. Last month, a Ukrainian air defense missile landed in Poland, killing two people.

The Russians have also been adapting the S-300 – normally an air defense missile – as an offensive weapon, with some effect. These have wrought devastation in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv, among other places, and their speed makes them difficult to intercept. They are not accurate.

So far, the Ukrainian long-range attacks that hit airfields in the heart of Russia, along the Volga River, have not caused extensive damage. The latest, on Monday, killed three servicemen, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, after air defenses shot down a Ukrainian drone approaching Engels air base, near the city of Saratov.

He said that Russia targeted energy infrastructure for the first time since the beginning of the war.

The Defense Department official stated that work was continuing on improving the air defense of Ukrainians, which included finding Soviet-era capabilities to make sure they were ready and could donate them.

In August, US officials said Russia had bought these drones and was training its forces how to use them. According to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia has ordered 2,400 Shahed-136 drones from Iran.

The U.S. is sending aSurface-to-air Missile system toUkraine to bolster its air defense capabilities, an upgrade that will represent one of the most advanced defense systems that the Americans have so far provided to support Ukraine.

Ukraine’s wish-list – circulated at Wednesday’s meeting – included missiles for their existing systems and a “transition to Western-origin layered air defense system” as well as “early warning capabilities.”

The system is considered one of the most capable long range weapons to defend airspace against missiles and aircraft. Because it has a high-altitude and long-range capability, it can shoot down the Russian missiles if they are far away from their intended targets.

Western systems are beginning to move in opposite directions. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Tuesday that a “new era of air defense has begun” with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany, and two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) expected soon.

But these are hardly off-the-shelf-items. The IRIS-T needed to be manufactured for Ukranian. Western governments have limited inventories of such systems. And Ukraine is a very large country under missile attack from three directions.

The kamikaze: “A partnership of convenience between two dictatorships,” a U.S. official told the press conference in Poland

Poland was thanked by the commander of the military of Ukraine for training his air defense battalion, which had destroyed nine of 11 Shaheeds.

He said Poland had given Ukraine “systems” to help destroy the drones. There were reports last month of the Polish government buying Israeli equipment and getting it to Ukraine, with Israel’s policy of not selling “advanced defensive technology” to the Ukrainians being a factor.

The White House did not provide larger drones that U.S. forces used in the wars that began after Sept. 11. Both aircraft can fly for hours with guided bombs, missiles, and video feeds on the ground.

The name “kamikaze” refers to the fact the drones are disposable. Unlike the more traditional, larger and faster military drones that return home after dropping missiles, they are designed to hit behind enemy lines.

AIran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said, “This is a partnership of convenience between two dictatorships.”

Both countries are deep in crisis, struggling economically and politically. Iran is attempting to quell street protests that pose the most serious challenge in years to the government, while Russia is trying to manage rising dissension over a faltering war effort and an unpopular draft.

The Iranian Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Program: Status and Perspectives for the Russia-Ukraine War and a Comparison to the German Bombing Campaign in World War II

Another disadvantage of the Shahed drones is their speed, said Ret. Mark Cancian is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The problem with them is that they’re slow,” Cancian said. They’re like all propeller-driven drones, they’re not very fast. They are vulnerable to being shot down by missiles or aircraft guns.

Last month the US sanctioned an air transportation provider for its involvement in the shipment of the Iranian drones, also known as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Russia. The US is ready to use producers and procurers in the program, according to the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.

The shipment is being closely monitored because it would be the first instance of Iran sending advanced precision guided missiles to Russia, which could give the Kremlin a substantial boost on the battlefield.

Iran has repeatedly stated that it is siding with no side in the Russia-Ukraine war. Iran has not supplied weaponry to the warring side, the Foreign Ministry said.

The Russian decision to target cities is compared to the German bombing campaign in World War II by both Nadimi and Cancian.

“It seems like the Russians are using these the way they use their cruise missiles – that is to strike at the major cities likely with the intention of intimidating the Ukrainian population … but I think from a military point of view that is a mistake,” Cancian said. “The Ukrainians are very unlikely to break. The morale is not likely to break.

Cancian thinks that if the military focused on the cities they would have more time to recover on the front lines like Britain did in WWII.

The U.S. is speeding up the delivery of NASAMS, the same ground-based air defense systems used to protect the White House in Washington, D.C., and the systems are expected to be in Ukraine in a few weeks.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have decided to use cheaper, battery- powered drones instead of larger ones due to the high cost. Before dropping small weapons like grenades on the enemy, quadcopters fly shorter distances and hover over a position. They are designed to be recovered, rearmed and used again after their batteries are charged.

In March, the Pentagon announced it would send 100 “tactical unmanned aerial systems” called Switchblades. The administration promised to give another 300 in the next month. The Defense Department said it would dispatch 120 Phoenix Ghost drones to Ukraine. In July, the United States provided funds for Ukraine to buy 580 more of them.

In August, the Pentagon said it would send Puma drones — small aircraft that soldiers toss into the air to launch and then control by remote control from up to nine miles away. The altitude of the umas is about 500 feet.

According to a statement by the Ukrainian military last week, at least 236 drones were shot down in the country’s east. The people are trying to adapt fast.

One Ukrainian MiG pilot won folk hero status in Ukraine this month for shooting down five Iranian Shahed-136 drones over the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia, only to be forced to eject after crashing into the debris of the last one. The pilot who identified himself as Karaya told the local news media that they were starting to destroy the weapon after a short period of time.

After colliding with the airborne debris, he said, Karaya steered his MiG away from Vinnytsia and ejected. There were no injuries when the jet crashed into the houses in the outlying area. Karaya later visited the site to apologize.

Iran’s Bolt in the War: The Role of Strategic Intelligence in the Relations between the Middle East, the Cold War and the West

“I visited the scene, said I was sorry for the discomfort I caused the residents and thanked them for their steel nerves,” he wrote on Instagram, saying he showed up in his tattered uniform, missing epaulets. He joked that it was a violation of military protocol. He wrote that they were lost while leaving the office.

This new expected shipment would mark a significant increase in Iranian support to Russia’s war effort. The exact timing of when the shipment will arrive in Russia is not certain, but officials believe they will be delivered by the end of the year.

The Iranian drones are known as a “loitering munition” because they are capable of circling for some time in an area identified as a potential target and only striking once an enemy asset is identified.

The strengthening relationship between Moscow and Tehran has drawn the attention of Iran’s rivals and foes in the Middle East, of NATO members and of nations that are still – at least in theory – interested in restoring the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which aimed to delay Iran’s ability to build an atomic bomb.

Earlier this month John Kirby, the communications coordinator at the National Security Council, said the presence of Iranian personnel was evidence of Tehran’s direct engagement in the conflict.

“We know that those drones have been used to target civilians and civilian infrastructure. And we know that Iran, in the face of all of this evidence, keeps lying and denying that it’s happening,” Malley said.

A senior US defense official told reporters on Monday that they didn’t have any information on the suggestion that Iran is preparing to send missiles to Russia.

If Russia is allowed to win, Putin’s war would mark the beginning of a new era of global instability, with less freedom, less peace and less prosperity for the world.

For that reason, Ukraine received massive support from the West, led by the United States. The war in Ukraine reinvigorated NATO, even bringing new applications for membership from countries that had been committed to neutrality. Many eastern European states that were once satellites of the Soviet Union are interested in orienting their future toward Europe and the West.

Much of what happens today far from the battlefields still has repercussions there. The US accused Saudi Arabia of helping fund the war by increasing its oil revenues when it decided to slash production last month. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

Syria’s airspace, bordering Israel, is controlled by Russian forces, which have allowed Israel to strike Iranian weapon flows to Hezbollah, a militia sworn to Israel’s destruction. Gantz has offered to help Ukraine develop defensive systems and it will reportedly provide new military communications systems, but no missile shields.

“Over the past three hundred days, the Kremlin has tried and failed to wipe Ukraine off the map. Antony Blinken of the US said in a statement that Russia was trying to weaponize winter by starving Ukrainian civilians and forcing families from their homes.

In fact, the war in Ukraine is already affecting everyone, everywhere. Fuel prices have gone up due to the conflict, and so has global inflation.

Higher prices not only affect family budgets and individual lives. They have a political punch when they come with powerful momentum. Political leaders have been put at risk in many countries by inflation worsened by the war.

State of Ukraine on NPR: Past, Present, Future and Future – From U.S. to Ukraine in the 21st Century

It isn’t all on the fringes. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader who could become speaker of the House after next week’s US elections, suggested the GOP might choose to reduce aid to Ukraine. Progressive Democrats released and withdrew a letter calling for negotiations. Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official during the Obama administration, said they’re all bringing “a big smile to Putin’s face.”

The war in Ukraine is leading to a push for more influence on the far-right by Putin’s fans in the West. Just as a political action committee linked to the former Trump aide argued against spending on Ukraine in order to reduce poverty and crime in the US, similar groups in Europe are trying to promote their views by pointing out the cost of helping Ukraine. For now, support for Ukraine remains strong in Europe and the US, although flagging among Republicans.

Anticipation is mounting for a possible battle for Kherson, a Russian-occupied city in southern Ukraine. Kremlin-installed officials have been evacuating civilians in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

With the outcome of America’s election predicted by many,Ukraine will be watching closely to see if the party in control of the House of Representatives restricts funding for it.

Also Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Erdogan insists Sweden must meet certain conditions before it can join NATO.

The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday is scheduled to discuss an International Atomic Energy Agency report, in which Ukraine is expected to be on the agenda.

Russia rejoined a U.N.-brokered deal to safely export grain and other agricultural goods from Ukraine, on Nov. 2. A few weeks before, Moscow had stopped its part in the deal because it said Ukranian troops attacked its ships in the Black Sea.

Bradley fighting vehicles will be supplied by the United States to the Ukraine as part of a security assistance package that will be given to the country as it nears the anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

You can find the past recaps here. You can find NPR’s coverage more in-depth here. You can listen to State ofUkraine on NPR and get updates throughout the day.

U.S. Defense Plans for a Patriot Air Defense System in Ukraine, as Explained by a United States Defense Secretary and an Oslater

Two US officials and a senior administration official said that the Biden administration is making final decisions on whether or not to send the missile defense system to Ukraine.

The plan is still in the hands of Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and will be sent to the president for his signature. The three officials told CNN that approval is expected.

It is not clear how many missile launchers will be sent but a typical Patriot battery includes a radar set that detects and tracks targets, computers, power generating equipment, an engagement control station and up to eight launchers, each holding four ready to fire missiles.

The Americans will teach the Ukrainian troops in Germany. Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers travel each month to Germany for weapons training. Pentagon officials had recently announced they would increase that number early next year.)

“If you have an Iranian Shahed uncrewed system heading toward critical infrastructure in Ukraine, it may very well be worth the cost of a Patriot missile to take it out,” he said. The move makes sense, given that Russia is trying to destroy Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

Smaller air defense systems only need a few people to properly operate them. The training for Patriot missile batteries normally takes multiple months, a process the United States will now carry out under the pressure of near-daily aerial attacks from Russia.

The system was sent to Poland in order to help the US defend themselves against Russia as they retaliated against Ukrainians in the country. The US military made clear in March that the system was for defense of NATO territories and won’t support any offensive operations.

The officials said the Defense Secretary could approve the transfers as soon as this week, but did not specify when that would happen. Final approval would then rest with President Biden.

White House, Pentagon and State Department officials declined to comment on details of the transfer of a Patriot battery, which, if approved, would amount to one of the most sophisticated weapons the U.S. has provided Ukraine.

Mr. Zelensky requested financing for his weapons first in his speech to the Group of 7 nations.

Why Russia isn’t at war, only a military operation: Why it is a threat to the West, and what it tells us about the West

Sanctions have not been enough to shake Russia’s determination to restore its empire at the cost of peaceful neighboring states. Instead of continuing to set up more targets for Russia to knock down, the US and Ukraine’s other Western backers should change the terms of the conflict. The international community must do more than simply tolerate Russia’s naked aggression and the savagery with which it is pursuing its war of colonial reconquest. More direct intervention is long overdue.

Russia and its supporters around the world will depict this as a large-scale and dangerous escalation. It is highly effective, but that is nonsense.

The West has played along with the Kremlin when it says that it isn’t at war, only a military operation. In effect, it has protected Russia from the consequences of its own aggression.

Russia’s most effective tool of deterrence remains nuclear threats. A decade or more of telling Russians that it’s time to use nuclear weapons if their country is humiliated or cornered has already had an effect.

Russia does not have an overt agenda to exterminate the Ukrainian people, and I think it would be hard for a different country to wage this kind of campaign.

That set a bad example for other aggressive powers around the world. It says possession of nuclear weapons allows you to wage genocidal wars of destruction against your neighbors, because other nations won’t intervene.

If this is the message the US and theWest want other nations to get, then they should supply the anti-missile system.

On the Patriot System: a Military Anti-Ballistic and Anti-Aircraft Weapon for U.S. Army and Russian Warfare

James Marks, a retired army major general, told CNN of the system’s ability to protect on the ground on very specific targets.

According to a description by the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), thePatriot system combines radar, stealth, and engagement in one unit which makes it stand out among air defense systems. The system’s engagements with incoming aerial threats are “nearly autonomous” aside from needing a “final launch decision” from the humans operating it.

The strike range of a Patriot battery is not large enough to cover the whole ofUkraine, which is about 800 miles from east to west and 500 miles from north to south.

Hertling said that these systems dont pick up and move. “You put them in place somewhere that defends your most strategic target, like a city, like Kyiv. If anyone thinks that this is a system that is spread across the 500-mile border between Ukraine and Russia, they really don’t know how it works.

The missiles used by the Patriot are more expensive than the missiles used by the other services. They are expensive enough that Ukrainians must be wise in how they are used. Cancian said, “You can’t just let these things fly.”

The system is described as an anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft weapon. You don’t win wars with defensive capabilities. You win wars with offensive capabilities.”

The US-Ukraine Patriot Missile System and its Implications for the Security and Freedom of Ukraine, as Informed by Recent U.S. Air Action on Ukrainian Infrastructure

“It becomes a real humanitarian issue when you’re trying to deprive an entire country of its electrical grid and water and everything else,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a 22-year Army veteran who now works as a Russia analyst at the Center for a New American Security. I think it’s a necessary step to help Ukrainians survive in the fight.

“That will do a good job of defending maybe a single city, like Kyiv, against some threats. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that it’s not putting a bubble over Ukraine.

The training requirements mean the system is unlikely to be operational in the late winter or early spring, even on a compressed schedule.

The push to get the system up and running as soon as possible could backfire, Cancian said: Ineffective operation caused by hasty training could hamper the system’s effectiveness; in a worst case scenario, Ukrainians might be unable to prevent Russians from destroying it. That in turn could damage the political will to send future assistance to Ukraine, he said.

“If the Ukrainians had a year or two to assimilate the system, that wouldn’t be any problem. The problem is they don’t have a year or two. Cancian said that the people want to do this in a couple weeks.

Pressure is growing on the U.S. and its allies to do more after recent Russian air strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Zelenskyy had renewed those calls in recent weeks ahead of Wednesday’s visit to Washington, including in a phone call to Biden earlier this month. The G7 was pressed for more assistance by the Ukrainian leader last week, and immediately decided to give Ukraine air defense systems and capabilities.

The new aid package announced on Wednesday also provides additional weaponry and includes tens of thousands of GRAD rockets.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/21/1144662505/us-ukraine-patriot-missile-system

Decay of the Kherson-Zaporizhhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine: A quiet night since the Russians started shelling

Kelly Greico, a defense analyst at the Stimson Center, called the announcement “a sign that there is a real deep concern” among U.S. officials about Ukraine’s air defense capability.

Before October, Ukrainian air defenses had been focused on protecting frontline troops in the east and south.

Greico said it’s a terrible choice to face, between protecting your citizens from the Russian attacks and trying to maintain military strength to resist the Russian war effort.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said the incident took place in the early hours of Monday, and three servicemen were killed by debris at the Engels airbase that houses the Tu-95 and Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers that have been involved in launching strikes on Ukraine.

In Ukraine, the night from Sunday into Monday appeared unusually quiet. For the first time in weeks, the Russian forces didn’t shell the Dnipropetrovsk region, which borders the partially occupied southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, its Gov. Valentyn Reznichenko reported on Telegram.

“This is the third quiet night in 5.5 months since the Russians started shelling” the areas around the city of Nikopol, Reznichenko wrote. Nikopol is located across the Dnieper River from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is under control of the Russian forces.

The Kherson region’s Ukrainian Gov. Yaroslav Yanushevich said that over the course of the past 24 hours, there had been 33 shellings on Ukrainian-controlled areas. There were no casualties.

The missiles were launched from Russian airfields and the strikes may destroy them before they are deployed.

“If somebody attacks you, you fight back” is how a former Ukrainian defense minister said in an interview after the first Ukrainian missile strike on Russian military targets.

Moscow will not leave Ukraine: The U.S. war with Ukraine is a challenge to Russia, says the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

One of the most advanced missiles in the Russian arsenal, the Kinzhal, which is all but impossible to shot down, is in short supply, according to Mr. Budanov.

The Russians were deeply mistaken to think that no one at home would be affected by the war. He stated that there were explosions in Russian airfields that complicated the bombing campaign againstUkraine and forced Moscow to relocate some of its aircraft.

The U.S. reaction to the Dec. 5 assaults was muted. Lloyd J. Austin III said that they weren’t working to prevent the developing of their own capability. Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, stated only that the United States was neither encouraging nor enabling attacks on Russia.

According to The Associated Press, the foreign minister of Ukraine told them on Monday that Russia could not be invited to a peace summit until it faced first. It was the latest in a string of claims by each country to be open to peace talks — but only on terms that are unacceptable to the other.

Several residential buildings in the capital Kyiv were destroyed, according to Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the lead for disaster response in the Ukrainian presidential office.

An explosion near a playground rattled the windows of nearby homes. Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko urged residents to charge their electronic devices and fill water containers in case of shortages.

Ukrainian air defense systems shot down 21 cruise missiles near Odesa, said Maksym Marchenko, the regional administrator for that region along the Black Sea. But successful missile strikes left the city without electricity or water.

The city lost power due to the proximity of the Polish border. The outage forced diesel generators to kick in to power emergency services. There was no public transportation there.

Strikes of the scale like the one launched Thursday’s have become less frequent since they began Oct. 10. The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, claimed this week that Russia was running low on cruise missiles.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russian media Wednesday that Moscow would pursue its objectives with “patience” and perseverance.

Biden and Scholz expressed a desire to continue providing financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as is necessary, according to the joint statement.

The American-Double Ukrainian Campaign in Ukraine: Prospects for a Training and a Constraint from the US-German Embassy

The Bradley fighting vehicle, which moves on tracks rather than wheels, can hold around 10 troops and is used to transport personnel into battle. The White House said the US and Germany would provide training to Ukrainian forces on the respective vehicles being provided to Kyiv.

Those systems had been at the top of Zelensky’s wish list because it will allow his military to target Russian missiles flying at a higher altitude than they were able to target previously.

Should Russia obtain Iranian ballistic missiles for use in its war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force has warned that it does not have the means to defend against them.