Vladimir Putin’s Special Forces in Ukraine During the September 2016 War: “Peskov’s Bloody Soldiers” and “The Misfortune of the Russian Army”

Russia has increased the number of forces on its border and inside its control in Ukranian, some of which were drawn out from a partial deployment in September last year. Despite the increased numbers, Western allies have not seen evidence of sufficient changes to those forces’ ability to carry out combined arms operations needed to take and hold new territory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was never a run-of-the-mill border dispute. Even before it started, as Putin initiated – and continuously denied – his march to war, the importance of preventing Russia’s autocratic regime from gaining control of its neighbor, with its incipient democracy, was clear.

The Kremlin reflected the disarray of its forces on the ground, where territory was rapidly changing hands, acknowledging that it did not yet know what new borders Russia would claim in southern Ukraine. “We are going to continue to consult with the population of the regions in respect of borders,” said Mr. Peskov on Monday.

After Mr Putin ordered military conscription, the war caused unrest and protest across the country, bringing many people back to their homes. Some men were drafted despite being ineligible based on factors like age or disability.

A commander of the battalion came across an abandoned Russian armored vehicle while racing down a road with his men in pursuit of retreating Russian soldiers. There were a lot of items inside such as a rifle, helmet, and belongings. The men didn’t come back.

“They dropped everything: personal care, helmets,” said the commander, who uses the code name Swat. I think it was a special unit that was panicked. It was raining very hard, the road was bad and they drop everything and move.”

They join an army already degraded in quality and capability. The composition of Russia’s military force in Ukraine — as much of its prewar active duty personnel has been wounded or killed and its best equipment destroyed or captured — has radically altered over the course of the war. The Russian military leadership wouldn’t know how this undisciplined force will react when faced with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. Recent experience suggests these troops might abandon their positions and equipment in panic, as demoralized forces did in the Kharkiv region in September.

He stated that the Russian city of Valuyki was under constant fire. “We learn about this from all sorts of folks, from governors, Telegram channels, our war correspondents. But no one else. The reports from the Ministry of Defense do not change in substance. They say that they destroyed 300 rockets and killed the Nazis. But people know. Our people are not stupid. But they don’t want to even tell part of the truth. Losing credibility can be a result of this.

The question is when the blame will be shifting from the military to Putin himself, since he seems to be ill prepared to change the leadership at very the top. The last change was the appointment of Sergei Selimikin as the first person to be in overall command of all Russian forces on theUkrainian front, a position he’d previously held as an army general.

“First of all, we need to stop lying,” said Andrei Kartopolov, a former colonel-general in the Russian military and a member of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party. We brought this up many times before. It’s not getting through to individual senior figures.

Kartapolov complained that the Ministry of Defense was evading the truth about incidents such as Ukrainian cross-border strikes in Russian regions neighboring Ukraine.

Located in the Belgorod region is Valuyki. Kyiv has generally adopted a neither-confirm-nor-deny stance when it comes to striking Russian targets across the border.

In Kherson, his forces planted mines from which they have recently withdrawn, like the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia in the 1970s. Indeed, Cambodian de-mining experts have even been called in to assist with the herculean task facing Ukraine in 2022. At the same time, Russian armies have also left behind evidence of unspeakable atrocities and torture, also reminiscent of the Khmer Rouge.

incompetence and inability to grasp the experience of war are still a serious problem, according to Boris Rozhin, who is also known as Colonelcassad.

But after Russia’s retreat from the strategic Ukrainian city of Lyman, Kadyrov has been a lot less shy about naming names when it comes to blaming Russian commanders.

Kadyrov wrote on Telegram that he blamed the commander of Russia’s Central Military District for the debacle because he did not provide enough for his troops.

The Russian information space has deviated from the narratives the Kremlin and the MoD want you to believe are that things are under control.

One of the central features of Putinism is a fetish for World War II, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War. And those in Russia’s party of war often speak admiringly of the brutal tactics employed by the Red Army to fight Hitler’s Wehrmacht, including the use of punishment battalions – sending soldiers accused of desertion, cowardice or wavering against German positions as cannon fodder – and the use of summary execution to halt unauthorized retreats.

Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechens, recently announced that he had been promoted by Putin to the rank of colonel general, and he was one of the most prominent voices arguing for reverting to the methods of the past. He recently said in another Telegram post that, if he had his way, he would give the government extraordinary wartime powers in Russia.

In September, Putin warned that “in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

Editor’s Note: Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. His work is featured in CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.

Kremlin attacks on civilian infrastructure during the first week of the Ukrainian war: The response to the attack on the border crossing between Russia and Crimea

Almost immediately after last month’s blast that destroyed a section of the Kerch bridge connecting Russia to Crimea – the Ukrainian territory it annexed in 2014 – the Kremlin intensified attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, stepping up its bombing of apartment buildings, power grid and water systems.

The large-scale Russian bombardment struck multiple cities including western Ukraine close to NATO, propelling the conflict into a new phase and coming just as much of the country was starting to roar back to life.

There was a video on social media showing hits near the Taras Shevchenko National University ofKyiv, which is close to the Presidential Office Building. Five people were killed as a result of strikes on the capital, according to Ukrainian officials.

There were three air raid sirens in the area around my office as of midday, and there were unconfirmed reports that missiles and drones had been shot down. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).

A few hours before Monday, Zaporizhzhia had been hit by several strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. Many people were killed and many were injured.

The power grid in Ukraine reaches every part of the country. According to the analyst at CNAS, there are more sites to protect.

The early days of the war when Russian troops were close to the capital were reminiscent of when some media outlets moved their operations to underground bomb shelters. In one metro station serving as a shelter, large numbers of people took cover on platforms as a small group sang patriotic Ukrainian songs.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

As the regions began to restart, the attacks could cause more damage to business confidence, as many asylum seekers return to their homes.

The attacks could be seen as a signal of strength for the growing list of Putin’s internal critics, as Russia is struggling on the ground and has failed to achieve supremacy in the air.

Hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive, record-breaking infrastructure projects seems to be a penchant of dictators. The Kerch bridge is Europe’s longest and was personally opened by Putin. That same year, one of the first things Chinese President Xi Jinping did after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

What will Russia do next? Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities in the aftermath of Moscow’s November 1st invasion of Ukraine, claimed by a former KGB operative

The reaction of the people of Ukrainians was instantaneous, with funny memes lit up social media channels. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

For Putin, consumed by pride and self-interest, sitting still was never an option. He responded in the only way he knows how, by unleashing more death and destruction, with the force that probably comes natural to a former KGB operative.

It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.

The Russian chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov was put in direct charge of the Ukraine campaign last month, prompting Rand analyst Dara Massicot to say that the “possibility of the Russians asking their tired force to do something that it cannot handle rises exponentially.”

What is crucially important now is for Washington and other allies to use urgent telephone diplomacy to urge China and India – which presumably still have some leverage over Putin – to resist the urge to use even more deadly weapons.

The coming weeks are therefore crucial both on the battlefield, as well as in Europe and around the globe, experts suggest. “As ever, where Putin goes next depends on how the rest of the world is responding,” Giles said. “Russia’s attitude is shaped by the failure of Western countries to confront and deter it.”

At this time in the conflict, air and missile defense are the greatest need for Kyiv. It’s reported that US plans to supply Ukraine with an advanced missile defense system is necessary to keep them in the fight.

The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.

Moscow is running thin on military weapons and staving off “desperation at many levels inside Russian society,” according to the head of the UK’s largest spy agency.

It is running short of troops because of the declaration for Mobilization. The answer is clear, I think. Russia and Russia’s commanders are worried about the state of their military machine,” Fleming said Tuesday.

At least 19 people were killed, and critical infrastructure was damaged, as a result of the wave of deadly strikes on Ukrainian cities by Russia on Monday.

The security and defense forces in South of Ukraine warned on Monday of a possible Russian strike, following an incident this month in the same region.

“I think any talk of nuclear weapons is very dangerous and we need to be very careful about how we’re talking about that,” Fleming said when asked about Putin’s nuclear threats.

I hope we see some indicators if they went down that path. But let’s be really clear about that, if they are considering that, that would be a catastrophe in the way that many people have talked about,” he added.

In a speech later Tuesday, Fleming will also say Russians are increasingly counting the cost of the invasion of Ukraine and are seeing “how badly” Putin “has misjudged the situation.”

“With little effective internal challenge, his decision-making has proved flawed. It’s a high stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement. Their gains are being reversed,” Fleming will say in an address at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) annual security lecture in London.

“They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. He will say that they are feeling the cost of his war of choice.

The Russian air campaign during Ukraine’s invasion: The role of missile defense, cyber capabilities, and missile-aelastic attack on Ukraine

When Russia invaded, it looked like it was doing the usual air campaign. Russia bombarded Ukraine with fighter jets. The near universal assumption was Russia’s powerful air force would quickly overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller force and establish air superiority.

As Ukraine races to shore up its missile defenses in the wake of the assault, the math for Moscow is simple: A percentage of projectiles are bound to get through.

There is still no idea how far such a burst is draining Russian inventories and whether they will have to rely on older, less accurate but equally powerful missiles.

Valery Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, said that 69 missiles were fired at Ukraine by Russian forces. He said that Ukraine shot down all but 15.

We see the impact of sophisticated, western-provided fire-and-forget shoulder-launched anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. The impact of the missiles on the ships has been seen. And we have seen use of offensive cyber capabilities, though not with enormous success, by the Russians.

He told Richard that the first time that Russia had targeted energy infrastructure was during the war.

The war is nearing the one-year mark and there has been a steady increase in weaponry supplied toUkraine. Dave Deptula, a retired Air Force lieutenantgeneral, says that there is more that needs to be done. “Wars aren’t won with just good defense, it’s time for the US to provide Ukraine with fighter aircraft, advanced precision and longer range surface to surface missiles,” Deptula said.

Klitschko said Ukrainian air defenses intercepted all 16 missiles fired at Kyiv, and that at least three areas of the city were damaged by debris. Three people in Ukranian were injured when the defensive missiles fired out of the sky fell.

In the course of an overnight operation, 39 Iranian-made Shahed drones were shot down, as well as two Russian-made Orlan drones and a X-59 missile.

More fighter jets would boost the number of war planes. Specifically, Ukraine wants the American F-16, which typically requires years of pilot training. It would be vulnerable to Russia’s anti-aircraft systems like other Ukrainian fighter jets. Oleksii Reznikov, Defense Minister of the United Kingdom, told NPR he doesn’t think the reasons are valid.

Ukraine’s wish-list – circulated at Wednesday’s meeting – included missiles for their existing systems and a “transition to Western-origin layered air defense system” as well as “early warning capabilities.”

Speaking after the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, he said such a system would not “control all the airspace over Ukraine, but they are designed to control priority targets that Ukraine needs to protect. What you’re looking at really is short-range low-altitude systems and then medium-range medium altitude and then long-range and high altitude systems, and it’s a mix of all of these.”

Western systems have begun to trickle in. The first IRIS-T from Germany arrived in the country on Tuesday, and the two units of NASAM are expected soon, according to the Ukrainian Defense Minister.

These are not off- the-shelf items. The IRIS-T had to be manufactured for Ukraine. Western governments have limited inventories of such systems. Ukraine is a large country under missile attack.

Observations of Ukraine’s Attack on Kherson: The Kremlin as a Tool for Counter-Offensives

Ukraine’s senior military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, tweeted Tuesday his thanks to Poland as “brothers in arms” for training an air defense battalion that had destroyed nine of 11 Shaheeds.

He said Poland had given the Ukranian a system to destroy drones. Last month there were reports that the Polish government had bought advanced Israeli equipment (Israel has a policy of not selling “advanced defensive technology” to Kyiv) and was then transferring it to Ukraine.

Not for the first time, the war is teetering towards an unpredictable new phase. “This is now the third, fourth, possibly fifth different war that we’ve been observing,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme.

“We are on the edge of a very active phase of hostilities, February and March will be very active,” Andriy Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said on national television.

It means the stakes in the war have been increased as winter approaches. “There’s no doubt Russia would like to keep it up,” Giles said. But the Ukrainian successes of recent weeks have sent a direct message to the Kremlin, too. Giles said that people are able to do things that take them by surprise so they must get used to it.

Oleksii Hromov, a senior Ukrainian military official, said last week that Kyiv’s forces have recaptured some 120 settlements since late September as they advance in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions. Ukraine claimed on Wednesday that it had liberated more settlements in Kherson.

Russia said on Thursday that it would help residents of Kherson flee to other areas as Ukraine continued its offensive in the region. The announcement came after the head of the Kherson administration appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harm’s way, suggesting that Russian forces were struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.

The counter-offensives have been able to shift the war’s focus and disprove a suggestion made during the summer that it lacked the ability to seize ground.

“The Russians are playing for the whistle – (hoping to) avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in,” Samir Puri, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine,” told CNN.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

It would be a major blow to the rebels if they landed a major blow in Donbas, and the country would want to improve its situation before the cold starts to set in. Europe is going to feel the full impact of rising energy prices, and it would be a major blow to the rebels

But there has been a regular, and costly, lag between what the Ukrainians badly need and when it gets delivered. One Ukrainian official told CNN that they need help yesterday and will get it tomorrow. The people’s lives are different between yesterday and tomorrow.

NATO leaders have said that they’re not going to give up their fight against the Russians even though it will take a long time, and several European countries that depend heavily on Russian energy are in danger of a cost-of-living crisis without signs of progress on the battlefield.

Ukraine’s national electricity company, Ukrenergo, says it has stabilized the power supply to Kyiv and central regions of Ukraine after much of the country’s electricity supply was disrupted by Russian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday. But Ukrainian Prime Minister has warned that “there is a lot of work to do” to fix damaged equipment, and asked Ukrainians to reduce their energy usage during peak hours.

Russia may be constrained in its ability to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives because of its limited supply of precision weapons.

Any further Belarusian involvement in the war could also have a psychological impact, Puri suggested. Everyone is focused on trying to fight one army in Ukraine and in the West. The invasion would play into Putin’s narrative that the war was about rebuilding the lands of ancient Rus states.

Giles said that the reopening of a northern front was a new challenge for Ukraine. It would provide Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast (region), which has been recaptured by Ukraine, should Putin prioritize an effort to reclaim that territory, he said.

By flipping the narrative of the conflict over the past two months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has achieved one of his own key objectives: showing Ukraine’s Western allies that their military aid can help Kyiv win the war.

Ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said thatUkraine needed “more” systems to stop missile attacks.

Justin Bronk, a military expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), agreed with that assessment, telling CNN that, “Ukrainian interception success rates against Russian cruise missiles have risen significantly since the start of the invasion in February.”

In the past we have witnessed Russian commanders throwing poorly trained soldiers into toughfights because they weren’t adequately trained. And supported by massive artillery and rocket fires (assuming they can maintain the supply of artillery rounds and rockets), to achieve grinding, costly, incremental gains – with, perhaps, an occasional limited breakthrough.

But the attacks, which remain sensitive enough that the Ukrainian government has not publicly acknowledged them, have forced Russia to move planes, potentially complicating Moscow’s campaign of aiming cruise missile strikes at Ukraine’s energy grid.

NATO will hold nuclear deterrence exercises starting Monday. NATO has warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine but says the “Steadfast Noon” drills are a routine, annual training activity.

Ukraine’s Security Forces: What Russia has to Do in Ukraine and How it’s Happening in the Light of the U.S.-Mexico War

Russian agents detained eight people on Oct. 12 suspected of carrying out a large explosion on a bridge to Crimea, including Russian, Ukrainian and Armenian citizens.

Russia’s move to annex four regions of Ukraine was condemned by the General Assembly. In the Oct. 13 session, four countries voted alongside Russia, but 143 voted in favor of Ukraine’s resolution, while 35 abstained.

Sixty three Russian soldiers were killed in one of the most savage attacks on Kremlin troops in the war in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s defense ministry said Monday.

You can find recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen to the State of Ukraine radio show on NPR for updates throughout the day.

The mayor of Moscow appeared to be taking pains to offer reassurances. No measures are being taken to limit the normal rhythm of the city’s life, said Mr. Sobyanin on his Telegram channel.

Despite new power granted to the regional governors by Mr. Putin, they did not impose restrictions on entry or exit.

The martial law that was imposed in Ukraine, the first by Moscow since World War II, is a message that will be seen by many Russians.

The siloviki, Mr. Putin’s strong men, will do what they want, said Ms. Stanovaya.

On Tuesday, the newly appointed commander of the Russian invasion, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, acknowledged that his army’s position in Kherson was “already quite difficult” and appeared to suggest that a tactical retreat might be necessary. General Surovikin said he was ready to make “difficult decisions” about military deployments, but did not say more about what those might be.

In a signal that the faltering invasion of Ukraine has eroded Moscow’s influence elsewhere, Russia has recently redeployed critical military hardware and troops from Syria, according to three senior officials based in the Middle East.

Predictions for the next EU referendum: The impact of EU gas prices on Europe’s energy markets and the economic prospects for France and Germany

David Andelman is a winner of the Deadline Club Award twice, the most recent one being his book ‘A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen’. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

In short, there is every incentive for Putin to prolong the conflict as long as possible to allow many of these forces in the West to kick in. The persistent inflation and higher interest rates in Europe could lead to irresistible pressure to dial back the financial and military support of the country.

This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

The EU agreed a plan to control energy prices in the early hours of Friday morning after embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies caused prices to go up.

These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.

While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Germany is skeptical of any price caps. Energy ministers must work out details with their German counterparts to make sure that caps on consumption don’t encourage higher consumption.

These divisions were part of Putin’s dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

The Italian Prime Minister, the U.S. President and the Counteroffensive in the Senate and the House of Representatives to the House Minority Caucus

And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Italy has a first woman Prime Minister in Giorgia Meloni, but she has tried to keep her party from becoming associated with the fascists of the past. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.

Silvio Berlusconi, himself a four-time prime minister of Italy, was recorded at a gathering of his party loyalists, describing with glee the 20 bottles of vodka Putin sent to him together with “a very sweet letter” on his 86th birthday.

Matteo Salvini, who was named Italy’s deputy prime minister Saturday, said during the campaign that he didn’t want the sanctions against Russia to hurt those who imposed them.

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They will not do it.

The influential Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and missiles and drones are hitting deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to renew America’s support.

Yes. There is an enormous $45 billion aid package in the works, and while not all military, it is part of a consistent drumbeat from the Biden administration. The message is simple, thatUkraine is receiving as much aid as Washington can provide, and that the aid will not stop.

In its two counteroffensives in the northeast and the south, the Ukrainian military has reported step-by-step gains in cutting supply lines and targeting Russian ammunition and fuel depots with long-range rockets and artillery.

The West tries to reduce Russian energy profits by trying to limit how much countries pay for Russian oil and how much oil they import from Russia. The efforts are cutting into profits.

The lack of necessary semi-conductors caused Russian production of hypersonic missiles to cease, according to the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.

Putin tried to establish black market networks abroad to source what he needs to fuel his war machine, just like Kim did in North Korea. The United States has already uncovered and recently sanctioned vast networks of such shadow companies and individuals centered in hubs from Taiwan to Armenia, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, France, and Luxembourg to source high-tech goods for Russia’s collapsing military-industrial complex.

The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

A World Affairs Perspective on Iran’s War with the United States: The Case of the Crimean Lockdown and Russia’s Nuclear Embargo

A former CNN producer and correspondent named Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed are of her own. CNN has more opinions on it.

Now, CNN has reported Iran is about to start sending even more – and more powerful – weapons to Russia for the fight against Ukraine, according to a western country closely monitoring Iran’s weapons program.

Russia and Iran have deepened their relationship, drawing attention to Iran’s rivals and foes in the Middle East, NATO members, and nations that are interested in restoring the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which was an attempt to delay Iran’s ability to build.

In fact, the war in Ukraine is already affecting everyone, everywhere. The conflict has caused fuel prices to be higher, contributing to a global explosion of inflation.

The direction of human history is at stake because a victory by Russia would reopen the door to invasions of one country by another, something that has been rejected by most nations since the Second World War.

Much of what happens today far from the battlefields still has repercussions there. The US accused Saudi Arabia of helping fund Russia’s war by increasing oil revenues when oil-production nations, led by Saudi Arabia, decided last month to slash production. The Saudis deny the accusation.

Separately, weapons supplies to Ukraine have become a point of tension with Israel, which has developed highly effective defense systems against incoming missiles. Ukraine has asked Israel to provide those systems, including the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, but Israel refuses, citing its own strategic concerns.

A UN and Turkey-brokered agreement allowed Ukraine’s maritime corridors to reopen, but this week Moscow temporarily suspended that agreement after Russian Navy ships were struck at the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Putin’s announcement was immediately followed by a surge in wheat prices on global commodity markets. People pay a lot of money for bread in Africa and all over the world.

Higher prices can affect more than just family budgets. When they come with such powerful momentum, they pack a political punch. Inflation has put political leaders on the defensive around the world.

The Farkas Smile: Why Do We Live in a Cold World? The U.S. Military Needs to End Its Cold War

And it’s not all on the fringes. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader who could become speaker of the House after next week’s US elections, suggested the GOP might choose to reduce aid to Ukraine. The letter calling for negotiations was released by the Progressives. Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official during the Obama administration, said they’re all bringing “a big smile to Putin’s face.”

A range of factors including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front are what the UK defense ministry reports is behind an increase in Russian casualties.

The statement from General Zaluzhnyi said that Russian forces had staged up to 80 assaults per day and that there had been a conversation with an American general.

The Institute for the Study of War said that the increase in infantry in the eastern part of Russia had not resulted in any new ground being gained by Russia.

The institute said in a statement on Thursday that Russian forces would have had more success in offensive operations if they had waited until enough personnel arrived.

In the south, where Ukrainian troops are advancing toward the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, the Ukrainian military said Friday morning that its artillery battalions had fired more than 160 times at Russian positions over the past 24 hours, but it also reported Russian return fire into Ukrainian positions.

With Russian and Ukrainian forces apparently preparing for battle in Kherson, and conflicting signals over what may be coming, the remaining residents of the city have been stocking up on food and fuel to survive combat.

The first missile to have landed in Poland – a NATO member – on Tuesday may well have been a Ukrainian anti-aircraft rocket intercepting an incoming Russian missile a short distance from one of Ukraine’s largest cities, Lviv, as suspected by Polish and NATO leaders. (President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, has insisted the missile was not Ukrainian)

In comments Monday, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat did not claim direct responsibility for the drone, but did suggest the attack was the “consequence of what Russia is doing.”

The repressions extend elsewhere: organizations and individuals are added weekly to a growing list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public.

A number of Russian soldiers have refused to fight and rebelled at what they were told to do. Russia may be prepared to shoot retreating or deserting soldiers in the face of plummeting likability stated by the UK Defense Ministry.

The hotline and Telegram channel was launched as a Ukrainian military intelligence project called “I want to live,” intended to assist Russian soldiers who want to defect.

Diplomatically, Putin finds himself increasingly isolated on the world stage. He was the only head of state to stay away from a session of the G20, which Zelensky dubbed the “G19.” Though Putin once wanted to go back to the G7 after his removal from the G8 he isn’t likely to get that chance. Russia’s sudden ban on 100 Canadians, including Canadian-American Jim Carrey, from entering the country only made the comparison with North Korea more striking.

Above all, many of the best and brightest in virtually every field have now fled Russia. This includes writers, artists and journalists as well as some of the most creative technologists, scientists and engineers.

I spoke to a leading Russian journalist who has settled in Berlin who said that he hopes this isn’t the case, but that he’s prepared to accept that he probably won’t get to return to his homeland.

US-Russia relations in the wake of the G20 resolution of a future combat air system project: The Case for a Patriot battery in Ukraine

The West is trying to deny the country of material resources in order to pursue this war, by shifting away from Russian oil and natural gas. “We have understood and learnt our lesson that it was an unhealthy and unsustainable dependency, and we want reliable and forward-looking connections,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission told the G20 on Tuesday.

Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. Word got out on Monday that the long-stalled project for a next-generation jet fighter at the heart of the Future Combat Air System was starting to move forward.

Above all, Putin still does not appear to have learned that revenge is not an appropriate way to act on or off the battlefield and in the final analysis is most likely to isolate and weaken Russia, perhaps irreversibly.

Still, he continues to hold, as he did in a Tuesday address in the Kremlin, that “attempts made by certain countries to rewrite and reshape world history are becoming increasingly aggressive, ultimately and obviously seeking to divide our society, take away our guiding lines and eventually weaken Russia.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III could approve a directive as early as this week to transfer one Patriot battery already overseas to Ukraine, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Final approval would then rest with President Biden.

The White House, Pentagon and State Department didn’t comment on the details of the transfer of aPatriot battery, which, if approved, would be one of the more sophisticated weapons the US has provided in the past.

Many questions remain about the potential transfer, which was reported earlier by CNN, including how long it would take to train Ukrainian soldiers on the system, presumably in Germany, and where the Patriots would be deployed inside Ukraine.

In a speech to the Group of 7 nations on Monday, Mr. Zelensky thanked the countries for their continued support but listed financing for weapons first among his requests.

The Kremlin called the transaction a fraud and said that the US will prolong thesuffering of the Ukrainian people.

The news that the US is finalising plans to send the system to Ukraine was the catalyst for the warning from the US embassy in Russia.

Zakharova said that many experts had questioned the rationality of such a step which would lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase the risk of the US army going into combat.

On the Propagation of U.S. Anti-Aircraft Detectors During the 1991 Ukrainian War on Irregular Surfaces

The U.S. Army and many of its allies use the array around the world. The original design was an anti-aircraft system, and newer versions are used to engage missiles.

Asked Thursday about Russian warnings that the Patriot system would be “provocative,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said those comments would not influence US aid to Ukraine.

It was ironic that officials from a country that attacked its neighbor in an illegal andprovoked invasion would choose to use provocative words about defensive systems that are meant to save lives and protect civilians.

He said that the US does not seek conflict with Russia. Ukraine needs some security assistance to defend itself.

In what may be a no less subtle message than calling the Patriot deployments provocative, Russia’s defense ministry shared video of the installation of a “Yars” intercontinental ballistic missile into a silo launcher in the Kaluga region for what Alexei Sokolov, commander of the Kozelsky missile formation, called “combat duty as planned.”

Commander Alexander of the Russian militia in the DONETSK region made a suggestion to Russian state TV that Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.

The larger crews that are required to operate the missile batteries are what makes them different from smaller air defense systems. The training for Patriot missile batteries normally takes multiple months, a process the United States will now carry out under the pressure of near-daily aerial attacks from Russia.

The Ukraine crisis and world issues: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak meets the Commons Liaison Committee on Tuesday (Monday, April 17)

In an interview with The Economist published Thursday, Zelensky also rejected the idea recently suggested by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Ukraine seek to reclaim only land seized by Russia since February 2022 and not areas like Donbas and Crimea, which have been under Russian control since 2014.

The NATO alliance still has two main objectives, one of which is to give aid to Ukraine, and the other is not to get involved in the war, according to Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General.

Compounding the problem, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said after the recent Makiivka strikes that “the Russian military has a record of unsafe ammunition storage from well before the current war, but this incident highlights how unprofessional practices contribute to Russia’s high casualty rate.”

“You load the ammunition and you cross your fingers and hope it’s gonna fire or when it lands that it’s gonna explode,” said the official, speaking to reporters.

In the trenches. Will Ripley filmed a video report on the construction of trenches and fortifications by the Ukrainian army along the border with Belarus, where they fear that Russia will put troops there again. Ripley is talking to a man who is turned into a tank driver.

A European Union cap on natural gas prices will be an official announcement, which will be the latest measure to tackle an energy crisis that was sparked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak makes his first appearance as prime minister before the Commons Liaison Committee, where the Ukraine war and other global issues are discussed. That follows Sunak’s meeting on Monday in Latvia with members of a U.K.-led European military force.

An Analysis of the Russian-Ukrainian War Between Russia and China in Light of “The First Ukrainian Christmas Or Hanukkah”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will hold virtual talks sometime this month, according to Russian news reports.

And Ukrainians and Russians are heading into their first Christmas or Hanukkah festivities since the Kremlin launched its full-on invasion of Ukraine in late February.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Dec. 13 it made an agreement with Ukraine’s government to send nuclear safety and security experts to each of the country’s nuclear power plants.

An American was freed from Russian-controlled territory during a prisoner exchange. Suedi Murekezi told ABC News he spent weeks in a basement, where he was tortured, and months in a prison in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine.

The transfer is a part of the new package of assistance announced by the US, which comes in the wake of reports of a Russian assault on the country’s critical infrastructure.

Keir Giles is employed by the Russia and Eurasia Programme of Chatham House. He is the author of a book. And What it Means for You.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion on CNN.

Russia is getting ready for a significant increase in aggression. It is gathering everything possible and doing drills. When it comes to an offensive from different directions, as of now, I can say that we are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks.”

Russia can behave as it pleases even though it has a UN Security Council veto and is afraid of being interfered with by a global community.

Russia’s most effective tool of deterrence remains nuclear threats. Over the last decade or so, Russia has made it clear that it would use Nuclear Weapons if Russia is cornered or humiliated, so the idea of using Nuclear weapons has died down a little.

The example set by that is disastrous for other powers around the world. It says that possession of nuclear weapons allows for genocidal wars against your neighbors because other nations won’t intervene.

If that’s not the message the US and the West want other aggressor states around the world to receive, then supply of Patriot should be followed by far more direct and assertive means of dissuading Moscow.

There are two key headline deliverables: first, the Patriot missile systems. Complex, accurate, and expensive, they have been described as the US’s “gold standard” of air defense. NATO preciously guards them, and they require the personnel who operate them – almost 100 in a battalion for each weapon – to be properly trained.

The second are precision-guided munitions for Ukrainian jets. Russia and Ukraine have weapons that are so dumb, they’re fired towards a target. Ukraine has been provided with more and more Western standard precision artillery and missiles, like Howitzers and HIMARS respectively.

The guidance kits will likely be part of the new deal because Ukraine can use them for unguided missiles or bombs. This will increase their accuracy and the rate in which Kyiv’s forces burn through ammunition. A lot of the $1.8 billion is expected to fund munitions replacements and stocks.

Western analysts have noted Russia has grumbled consistently about these deliveries, but been relatively muted in its practical response to the crossing of what, as recently as January, might have been considered “red lines.”

Whatever the eventual truth of the matter – and military aid is opaque at the best of times – Biden wants Putin to hear nothing but headline figures in the billions, to sap Russian resolve, push European partners to help more, and make Ukraine’s resources seem limitless.

The remnants of the Trumpist “America First” elements of that party have echoed doubts about how much aid the US should really be sending to the edges of eastern Europe.

Realistically, the bill for the slow defeat of Russia in this dark and lengthy conflict is relatively light for Washington, given its near trillion-dollar annual defense budget.

Kyiv and its Western allies are “set for a long confrontation with Russia” following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s momentous visit to Washington, Moscow said as the war in Ukraine approaches 10 months.

As a former reality TV star turned unexpected president, he embodies how the war of choice waged by Putin has turned ordinary Ukrainians into wartime heroes.

An Integrated System to Guard and Guard the LHC from the Ion Collision of a Relativistic Heavy-Ion Reactor

“This is not a system that will go after drones or smaller ballistic missiles,” he said. “Can it do that? Absolutely. It doesn’t make sense to invest in a $100,000 missile when you can knock down a $20,000 drone with a $3 million rocket. It would allow low and medium systems to go after those types of targets.

The Center for Strategic International Studies said that the system combines surveillance, tracking, and engagement functions in one unit, which made it stand out. The system’s engagements with incoming aerial threats are “nearly autonomous” aside from needing a “final launch decision” from the humans operating it.

“These systems don’t pick up and move around the battlefield,” Hertling said. It is advisable to put them in a city that is designed to defend it’s most important target. If anyone thinks this system is going to be spread across a 500 mile border between Russia and the Ukranians, they don’t know how it works.

The Army says just one battery is operated by roughly 90 soldiers and includes computers, the engagement control system, a phased array radar, power generating equipment, and up to eight launchers.

Americans are going to train Ukrainian troops in Germany. Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers go to Germany for weapons training each month. Officials at the Pentagon recently announced they would increase their number next year.

Is the Patriots a humanitarian system? The case of Ukraine, and a plea to the G7 for further assistance from the Ukrain

The emphasis of the Patriots is on defensive, Hertling said. “You don’t win wars with defensive capabilities. You have the offensive capabilities to win wars.

“It becomes a real humanitarian issue when you’re trying to deprive an entire country of its electrical grid and water and everything else,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a 22-year Army veteran who now works as a Russia analyst at the Center for a New American Security. “I think they see that as a necessary step to help Ukrainians sustain themselves in the fight.”

It’s a good idea to defend maybe a single city like Kyiv against some threats. Mark Cancian is a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Even on a compressed schedule, the training requirements mean that the Patriot system is unlikely to be operational until late winter or early spring, perhaps in February or March.

The push to get the system up and running as soon as possible could backfire, Cancian said: Ineffective operation caused by hasty training could hamper the system’s effectiveness; in a worst case scenario, Ukrainians might be unable to prevent Russians from destroying it. That in turn could damage the political will to send future assistance to Ukraine, he said.

If the Ukrainians had time to get used to the system, it wouldn’t be a problem. The problem is they don’t have a year or two. They want to do this in a couple weeks,” Cancian said.

Zelenskyy renewed his calls in the weeks leading up to Wednesday’s visit to Washington, including a call to Biden. Last week, the Ukrainian leader had pressed the G7 for more assistance; in a statement afterward, the group announced it would set “an immediate focus on providing Ukraine with air defense systems and capabilities.”

In addition to the Patriot battery, the new aid package announced Wednesday also includes additional HIMARS ammunition, mortars, artillery rounds and tens of thousands of GRAD rockets and tank ammunition.

The Air Defense of Ukraine: Why We Need More Military Support and How We Need to Resiliently Respond to Russia’s Attacks on Ukraine

Kelly Greico, a defense analyst at the Stimson Center, called the announcement “a sign that there is a real deep concern” among U.S. officials about Ukraine’s air defense capability.

The cost of the missiles that accompany thePatriot is more than that of the missiles that will be launched in the future. They are costly enough that Ukrainians must be judicious in how they are used, analysts said. “You can’t just let these things fly,” said Cancian.

Prior to October, the Ukrainian air defenses focused on protecting frontline troops in the east and south, along with key government buildings and military sites in the rest of the country.

“That’s a terrible choice to face, between the natural urge to protect your civilians from these brutal attacks and trying to ensure that you have the long-term military wherewithal to continue to resist the Russian war effort,” Greico said.

US President Joe Biden agreed to give more military support toUkraine during his visit to the White House on Wednesday, which the Russia’s foreign ministry condemned asmonstrous crimes.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that no matter how much military support the West provides to the Ukrainian government, “they will achieve nothing.”

“As the leadership of our country has stated, the tasks set within the framework of the special military operation will be fulfilled, taking into account the situation on the ground and the actual realities,” Zakharova added, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Zelensky spoke from the US Capitol and asked for more help in fighting Russian aggression since the war began.

Peskov added that “there were no real calls for peace.” But during his address to the US Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky did stress that “we need peace,” reiterating the 10-point plan devised by Ukraine.

Peskov told journalists the meeting showed that the US is fighting a proxy war against Russia.

The attack on Engels-2, a strategic bomber airbase, on the Volga river, by seven drones and three more shot down by three drones

Seven drones were shot down over the southern Mykolaiv region, according to Gov. Vitali Kim, and three more were shot down in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, Gov. Valentyn Reznichenko said.

The incident happened in the western port city of Engels, which is 500 miles southwest of Moscow, on the Volga River. It is the second such attempted attack on the city, which houses the Engels-2 military airfield, a strategic bomber airbase, this month.

The Saratov Oblast Governor said on Monday that law enforcement agencies are investigating the incident at the airfield. There were reports of an explosion in the city after the comments were posted on his official Telegram channel.

He added that there were “no emergencies in the residential areas of the city,” and that no civilian infrastructure had been damaged. He said the government would help the families of the servicemen.

The defense ministry of Ukraine said in a statement that the Russians had been saving one of the largest missile attacks since the beginning of the invasion. “They dream that Ukrainians will celebrate the New Year in darkness and cold. But they cannot defeat the Ukrainian people.”

Earlier this month, CCTV footage appeared to show an explosion lighting up the sky in Engels. At that time, the governor reassured residents that no civilian infrastructure was damaged and that information about incidents at military facilities was being checked by law enforcement agencies.

Russian Cyberattacks on the Internet: Attacks on a Russian Airfield, Attacked on Ukraine’s Cyber Networks, and Disaster Response in Ukraine

Since some cruise missiles are launched from bombers that fly from the airfields hit in the attacks, the strikes could potentially destroy the missiles on the ground at the Russian airfields before they can be deployed.

The defense minister of the former Yugoslavia said in an interview that if a person attacks him, he will fight back.

Kinzhal, Russia’s most advanced missile, is in a shorter supply than usual because it is so hard to shoot it down.

Menon notes, however, that every one of his comments could just as easily apply to Russia’s earlier waves of cyberattacks on the country’s internet—such as the NotPetya malware released by Russia’s GRU hackers, which five years earlier destroyed the digital networks of hundreds of government agencies, banks, airports, hospitals, and even its radioactivity monitoring facility in Chernobyl. “They’re different in the technicalities, but the goal is the same,” he says. “Demoralizing and punishing civilians.”

The lead for disaster response in the Ukrainian president’s office said several residential buildings in the capital had been destroyed.

An explosion near a playground made the windows in nearby homes rattle. Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko urged residents to charge their electronic devices and fill water containers in case of shortages.

In western Ukraine, Lviv Mayor Andrii Sadovyi said 90% of the city was without power, cautioning that the city’s waterworks could also to stop working with electricity down.

The Russian Embassy in Kiev has not responded to Kyiv’s comments on the Ukraine’s Decay of December 2022 and a warning from the West

In separate comments to Russian media Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted Moscow would continue to pursue its objectives in Ukraine with “perseverance” and “patience.”

Authorities have been cautioning for days that Russia was preparing to launch an all-out assault on the power grid to close out 2022, plummeting the country into darkness as Ukrainians attempt to ring in the New Year and celebrate the Christmas holidays, which for the country’s Orthodox Christians falls on January 7.

After the sound of air raid sirens and an explosion woke up Hryn, she and her son went to the basement shelter beneath their building. But they were not particularly surprised, nor did they let it dampen their spirits.

After the sirens went off, Hryn said life in the capital went back to normal because he met his neighbors in the elevator who were trying to catch the new movie on time. Parents brought their children to school while people went to work on holiday plans in defiance.

The Russian Foreign Minister claimed on Thursday that Moscow will not negotiate with Kyiv on the basis of the Ukrainian President’s 10-point peace formula, which includes Russia withdrawing from all Ukrainian territory.

Still, he stressed Russia was open for diplomatic solutions, echoing comments made by Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent days that he wanted an end to the war. Kyiv and the West dismissed Putin’s claim of openness to negotiations as a ruse.

Three killed in Kiev missile attacks on the first day of the Kiev War and Ukraine’s response to the Russian crisis in the post-Soviet period

At least three people, including a 14-year-old, were injured and two people pulled from a damaged home on Thursday, Klitschko said earlier. The city military administration said that homes, an industrial facility and a playground were damaged in attacks on Kyiv.

In Odesa, authorities said that there were emergency power cuts because of the missile attacks. “They are introduced due to the threat of missile attacks to avoid significant damage if the enemy manages to hit energy facilities,” DTEK, a utility company, said in a statement.

The Ukrainian military said later on Monday that the number of Russian servicemen killed in Makiivka is “being clarified” after claiming earlier that around 400 Russian soldiers were killed and a further 300 were wounded. It did not acknowledge a role in the strike. CNN can’t independently confirm the number of people killed in the attack.

“Senseless barbarism.” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said those were the only words that came to mind watching Moscow launch a fresh wave of attacks on Ukrainian cities ahead of the New Year, adding there could be “no neutrality” in the face of such aggression.

At the time, Putin claimed his troops were embarking on a “special military operation” that would take about a week to complete.

The war has upended Russian life, destroying a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

War against Ukraine Has Left Russia Isolated and Struturing with More Tortuttle-Ahed: How Russians Reacted to Russian Media Controversy

Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. 45% of those arrested for demonstrating against the war were women, according to a leading independent monitoring group.

Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.

The 2022, co-recipient Memorial was forced to stop its activities due to alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

Russia’s anti-gay laws have been vastly increased by the state and it says the war in Ukraine reflects a broader attack on traditional values.

Disregards are still targeted. There are some new laws that are not enforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

internet users have restrictions as well. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Since the beginning of the conflict, over 100,000 websites have been blocked by the Russia’s internet regulators.

Russian citizens can still access independent sources of information with technical workarounds. Older Russians like the state media propaganda and watch angry TV talk shows that spread conspiracy theories.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

The Russian War in Ukraine: The Last Three Years of Putin’s Invasion and its Impact on the Economy, Foreign Trade, and the Security of Russia

In the early days of the war, many of the perceived government opponents left due to concerns of persecution.

Some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict that their economies will grow as Russians continue to increase in number.

Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. McDonald’s and several other brands ultimately relaunched under new names and Russian ownership. By year’s end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted.

President Putin believes that Europe will blink first when it comes to sanctions because it’s angry over energy costs in its own country. He announced a ban on oil exports from countries that adhere to the price cap, a move likely to make the pain worse.

The damage to Putin’s reputation for providing stability has already put an end to his support from Russians who remember the chaotic years that followed the fall of the USSR.

When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Russia’s Defense Ministry provides daily briefings recounting endless successes on the ground. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”

The length of the war, with no immediate Russian victory in sight, suggests that Russia vastly underestimated the willingness of the Ukrainians to resist.

Russia’s illegal annexation of four territories of Ukraine following unrecognized referendums in September has only underscored Moscow’s problems: it hasn’t been able to establish full control over the lands it now claims as its own.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates are much higher.

Indeed, Russia’s invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have eagerly purchased discounted Russian oil, but have stopped short of full-throated support for Russia’s military campaign.

Two shot-downs in the Makiivka school in Ukraine: a single attack in the last 10 months of war for Russian forces

A state of the nation address, originally scheduled for April, was repeatedly delayed and won’t happen until next year. The annual “direct line” was a media event where Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians.

An annual December “big press conference” – a semi-staged affair that allows the Russian leader to handle fawning questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media – was similarly tabled until 2023.

The Kremlin did not give a reason for the delays. Many suspect it might be that, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory in sight, the Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share.

The Ukrainian military seemed to acknowledge at least one attack that appeared to be the same attack that the Russian authorities reported.

Russian officials say four Ukrainian-launched missiles hit the school where the forces were housed next to a large arms depot. The two rockets that were shot down were from the same model of rocket.

The Russian defense ministry on Monday acknowledged the attack and claimed that 63 Russian servicemen died, which would make it one of the deadliest single episodes of the war for Moscow’s forces.

Russian senator Grigory Karasin said that those responsible for the killing of Russian servicemen in Makiivka must be found, Russian state news agency TASS reported Monday.

A Russian journalist describes the destruction of a military building in the Donetsk area by a bullet-induced attack on 2014 Ukrainian Airlines Flight 17

Video reportedly from the scene of the attack circulated widely on Telegram, including on an official Ukrainian military channel. It shows a pile of smoking rubble, in which almost no part of the building appears to be standing.

“Greetings and congratulations” to the separatists and conscripts who “were brought to the occupied Makiivka and crammed into the building of vocational school,” the Strategic Communications Directorate of the Chief Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Telegram. Santa packed the corpses of Russian soldiers in bags.

Daniil Bezsonov, a former official in the Russia-backed Donetsk administration, said on Telegram that “apparently, the high command is still unaware of the capabilities of this weapon.”

“I hope that those responsible for the decision to use this facility will be reprimanded,” Bezsonov said. There are a lot of abandoned facilities with sturdy buildings where personnel can be quartered.

A Russian propagandist who blogs about the war effort on Telegram, Igor Girkin, claimed that the building was almost completely destroyed by the secondary detonation of ammunition stores.

“Nearly all the military equipment, which stood close to the building without the slightest sign of camouflage, was also destroyed,” Girkin said. As many people are still missing, there are no final figures on the number of casualties.

Girkin has long decried Russian generals whom he claims direct the war effort far from the frontline, calling them “unlearned in principle” and unwilling to listen to warnings about putting equipment and personnel so close together in HIMARS range. Girkin was previously minister of defense of the self-proclaimed, Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic, and was found guilty by a Dutch court of mass murder for his involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

There are no conclusions made, hence the unnecessary losses and if the precautions had been taken, it might not have happened.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/europe/ukraine-makiivka-strike-intl/index.html

Yanushevich: Russian attacks on Bakhmut, a frustrated village in the northwest of the city of Donetsk and a Ukrainian attack on Kyiv

Russian forces lost over 800 people in a single day, and are continuing to attempt assaults on Bakhmut, the general staff said Sunday.

Russian units have been targeted by Ukrainian forces in rural territory while pressing an offensive towards the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk for the past several months.

The strike used a U.S.-supplied precision weapon that has proven critical in enabling Ukrainian forces to hit key targets, delivered a new setback for Russia which has been reeling from a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Moscow’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24 has gone awry, putting pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as his ground forces struggle to hold ground and advance. He said in his New Year’s address to the nation that he would need to make difficult decisions in the year to come.

Five people were wounded in the Monday morning shelling of a Ukraine-controlled area of the southern Kherson region, its Ukrainian Gov. Yaroslav Yanushevich said on Telegram.

Moscow’s renewed assault came after Russian forces targeted the residential neighborhood with an Iskander-K missile Wednesday, killing at least three civilians and wounding another eight, according to local police. Honcharenko said that two of the wounded were critical.

A blistering New Year’s Eve assault killed at least four civilians across the country, Ukrainian authorities reported, and wounded dozens. The fourth victim, a 46-year-old resident of Kyiv, died in a hospital on Monday morning, Klitschko said.

Why Do Ukrainian Soldiers in Ukraine Live in a World Without Cellular Devices? The Case of Makiivka, Ukraine,

The United States will supply Ukraine with Bradley fighting vehicles as part of a new security assistance package to the country as it nears the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

Biden and Scholz agreed that they would continue to provide the necessary financial, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as is necessary.

Zelensky had wished for those systems to allow his military to target Russian missiles at a higher altitude than they have been able to before.

It is the cell phones that the young soldiers were using in violation of regulations that allowed Ukrainian forces to target them most accurately, says the Russian account. Ukraine, however, has not indicated how the attack was executed. But the implications are broader and deeper, especially for how Russia is conducting its war now.

It is telling that days after the deadliest known attack on Russian servicemen, President Vladimir Putin called for a temporary ceasefire, citing the Orthodox Christmas holiday. The move was rightly dismissed by Ukraine and the US as a cynical attempt to seek breathing space amid a very bad start to the year for Russian forces.

Beyond the now and the next, Ukrainian officials are frustrated by the never category, which currently includes F-16 fighter jets and US ATACMS (Army Tactical) missiles, with a range of 186 miles (300 kilometers).

Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Defense Program and co-head of the Gaming Lab at the Center for New American Security in Washington, has told me that Russia’s failure to break up or move large arms depots is largely a function of the reality that their forces cannot communicate adequately.

It’s a view shared by other experts. “Bad communications security seems to be standard practice in the Russian Army,” James Lewis, director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told me in an e-mail exchange.

The troops killed in Makiivka seem to have been recent conscripts, part of a larger picture of Russian soldiers being shipped to the front lines with little training and deeply sub-standard equipment and weapons.

A number of prisoners freed from Russian prisons have been sent immediately to the Ukrainian front. It would be appealing to prisoners used to years of isolation with little or no contact with the outside world to use cell phones.

Semyon Pegov, who runs a web site under the guise of WarGonzo, slammed the Ministry of Defense for their attempt to implicate the troops by suggesting that they used their own cell phones.

He questioned how the Ministry of Defense could be “so sure” that the location of soldiers lodging in a school building could not have been determined using drone surveillance or a local informant.

A month earlier, the defense ministry underwent a shakeup when Col. Gen. Mikhail Y. Mizintsev, known to Western officials as the “butcher of Mariupol,” was named deputy defense minister for overseeing logistics, replacing four-star Gen. Dmitri V. Bulgakov, who had held the post since 2008. The location of the arms depot, adjacent to the Makiivka recruits, would likely have been on Mizintsev’s watch.

Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, told his force in a celebratory video: “Our victory, like the New Year, is inevitable.”

Russian-Ukrainian strike in Kramatorsk is a terrorist attack, according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Danilov

Moscow’s attack in Kramatorsk came after a top Kyiv official said Russia is gearing up for a “maximum escalation” of the nearly years-long war in Ukraine.

“These will be defining months in the war,” Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News in an interview broadcast Tuesday.

The head of the United Center of Security and Defense Forces of the South of Ukrainian said that it was not only on land, but also in the air and sea.

“During the week, military representatives from the two countries will practice joint planning of the use of troops based on the prior experience of armed conflicts in recent years,” the ministry said in a statement.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said its Leopard 2s will reach Ukraine by the end of March, while UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the Challenger 2s should be provided to Kyiv “this side of the summer.” And on January 26, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said that deliveries of the Abrams tanks will take “months.”

On January 30, US President Joe Biden reiterated that Washington would not send its F16 fighter jets to Ukraine, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also said that he does not envisage providing warplanes to Kyiv.

A fresh barrage of missiles ripped through the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine Thursday, sending flames and thick plumes into the air as screaming civilians scrambled to find shelter.

A CNN team had just arrived at the scene and heard the first incoming strike on Kramatorsk. The second attack took place about a minute apart. Two women jumped from their car and ran screaming while other people took shelter. The shell went off the blastproof glass of the CNN vehicle.

Paramedics rushed to the scene to treat at least one wounded civilian. Kramatorsk Mayor Oleksandr Honcharenko confirmed that there had been a strike, and urged residents to stay in bomb shelters.

“They damaged 13 two-story buildings, three four-story buildings, a children’s clinic and school, garages and cars,” Kyrylenko said. Russians confirm their status as terrorists every day.

Rescue workers searched through piles of rubble to try and locate survivors in the aftermath of Wednesday’s attack, which damaged eight apartment buildings. People were taken to a school for shelter.

How Airborne Are Drones? The Case of the “Top Gun: Maverick” Oscar-nominated Program at Stimson Center

“A country bordering absolute evil. And a country that has to overcome it in order to reduce to zero the likelihood of such tragedies happening again. We will definitely find and punish all the perpetrators. They don’t deserve to be forgiven.

Yet one thing makes this battle distinctive from all previous air wars of the past century: pilots are rare. And this goes very much against the traditional perception of air combat.

“Top Gun: Maverick is Oscar-nominated this year for Best Picture. And here we are, watching an air war happening. “It looks like a different version of the movie Top Gun,” said Kelly Grieco with the Stimson Center.

There are planes that are still flying. The number of sorties is low compared to the past wars, according to Grieco.

He is familiar with these tenets. Gersten flew combat missions as an F-16 pilot early in his career, and later commanded U.S. drone operations in the Middle East. He saw drones assume a prominent role in the U.S. air campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. dominated the skies with its war planes, but also had a major role in those conflicts.

All the defense forces around the world are starting to use small drones, Chell said. “Not just for war fighting, but actually for logistics and for medical and for humanitarian aid.”

“We were contacted by an American (aid group) that couldn’t get their ambulances into besieged cities and asked if it could use our drones,” said Chell, who’s based in Vancouver.

“When I ask about F-16, I never heard about a problem with the spare parts or the supply chain. You know, it is a very long period of training courses for your pilots. The president has made it clear. The U.S. is sending air defenses, but not fighter jets — which would put more vulnerable pilots and expensive planes in the sky.

The chaotic scene near Vuhledar: Russian tanks, infantry, and blind infantry fighting for the liberation of the Donetsk People’s Republic

The scenes are chaotic: Russian tanks veering wildly before exploding or driving straight into minefields, men running in every direction, some on fire, the bodies of soldiers caught in tank tracks.

According to the videos, at least two dozen Russian tanks and infantry vehicles have been disabled or destroyed within a matter of days. Satellite images show intensive patterns of impacts along tree lines where Russian tanks tried to advance.

The Russian Defense Ministry has insisted the assault on Vuhledar, where the 155th Marine Brigade is prominently involved, is going according to plan. In remarks recorded for a Sunday television show, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the “marine infantry is working as it should. Right now. Fighting heroically.”

But the leader of the self-declared, Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Denis Pushilin, acknowledged Friday that the area was “hot” and said “the enemy continues to transfer reserves in large quantities, and this slowed down the liberation of this settlement.”

Vuhledar was built for the nearby coal mine (the name translates as “gift of coal”) and sits above surrounding plains. Its high-rise buildings give its defenders – principally the Ukrainian 72nd The Mechanized advantage is as well as hardened underground cover.

The Russian high command may be less than enthusiastic when the assault begins. Attempts to move in the Vuhledar area have gone badly.

There was a lot of good T-72B3/T-80BVM tanks and the best parachutes and marines that were killed in the war.

In another post on Telegram, Strelkov wrote: “Only morons attack head-on in the same place, heavily fortified and extremely inconvenient for the attackers for many months in a row.”

Moscow Calling said at the weekend that the movement of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in “slender columns” near Vuhledar was asking for trouble. He alleged that Russian units in the area lack information because commanders have failed to integrate intelligence-gathering into battlefield decisions.

How are tanks, armored personnel carriers, and equally blind infantry supposed to fight without columns? And then how to coordinate any actions if there is no communication and situational awareness?” He wrote something.

Rustam Muradov and the International Team of the U.S. Embassy to the Ukraine: the Case for a Strategic Impact on the War in Ukraine

Several Russian commentators called for the removal of Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov from his post. The 155th men protested that he had caused disastrous losses by his tactics.

In an expletive-laden post, the pro-Wagner Telegram channel Grey Zone said of Muradov: “This coward is lying down at the control point and sending column after column until the commander of one of the brigades involved in the Vuhledar assault is dead on the contact line.”

These aren’t tactics that help to develop well-trained, disciplined, capable, and cohesive units that have faith in their leaders and soldiers on their left and right.

Military officials say that there is a random mixture of Russian forces in the area, including professional units, the militia from the DPR and the infantry of a private military company.

On Saturday, the commander of the Ukrainian forces stated that effective fire damage was the key to success on the battlefield.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise Europe tour, meeting leaders in London, Paris and Brussels, and reiterating his call for allies to send fighter jets to Ukraine.

Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova attended President Biden’s State of the Union speech, for the second year in a row, but the war in Ukraine received far less attention in the address this time.

The international team investigated the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight, and found evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin had given the go-ahead to send anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels.

A spokesman for the armed forces, Col. Serhiy Cherevaty, said on Ukrainian television that soldiers need to keep their focus on building defensive lines. He said that the reason for barring civilians, including aid workers, from entering the city was to keep military operations secret.

Bakhmut doesn’t have much in the way of strategic value for Moscow or Ukranian. Its significance comes more from the amount of blood spilled to claim it.

“Even if Bakhmut were to fall, it would not have a strategic impact on the overall war,” said the National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby. I would say it wouldn’t have a strategic impact on the fighting in that part of the country.

What will the Russian Army do next in the Cold War? CNN Analyses of Ukraine’s Pangade over the Last Seventy Years

Concerns about whether Ukraine would win the war against its Russian enemies were downplayed in Brussels by Western officials.

There was a question about fighter jets on Tuesday, but the American defense secretary said he had no announcement to make.

“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.

A senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN that they had enough manpower to take just one or two small cities. It was overwhelming, compared to the panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.

Editor’s Note: Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. You can also give an opinion on CNN.

Many battles have been lost by the Russians due to failures of their military culture, doctrine, organizational structures and training. While Petraeus says this is in many ways the first open-source war, other aspects are being fought with Cold War tactics and weapons.

Petraeus: I am not sure. If a country has not engaged in major combat operations in many decades, the developments in Ukraine have to be a cautionary tale for any country contemplating a very challenging military operation.

Petraeus: It’s not Russia. Russia has, after all, lost the Battles of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv; failed to take the rest of Ukraine’s southern coast (not even getting through Mykolaiv, much less to the major port at Odesa).

It has lost what it had gained in Kharkiv province. And it has had to withdraw its only forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson province because the Ukrainians made the vital bridge connections to those forces impassable, took out the headquarters and logistics sites supporting those forces, and isolated them from the rest of the Russian elements east of the river.

So, the situation is essentially a stalemate at present, albeit with Russia making costly attacks in several areas, and with both sides building up forces for offensive operations expected in the late winter (likely the Russians) and spring/summer (the Ukrainians).

What the Future of War would look like: Detection, Training, Communications, and Operational Capabilities of the NATO and Unmanned Forces

Perhaps most notably, of course, we see a war taking place, for the first time, in a context that includes the widespread presence of smart phones, internet connectivity, and social media and other internet sites.

These are just suggestions of what the future of war would look like. In such a conflict, the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems would be incomparably more capable; precision munitions would have vastly greater range, speed and explosive power.

And there would incomparably greater numbers of vastly more capable unmanned systems (some remotely piloted, others operating according to algorithms) in every domain – not just in the air, but also at sea, sub-sea, on the ground, in outer space, and in cyberspace, and operating in swarms, not just individually!

I remember an adage during the Cold War saying, “If it can be seen, it can be hit, if it can be hit, it can be killed.” In truth, we didn’t have the surveillance assets, precision munitions and other capabilities needed to truly “operationalize” that adage in those days. In the future, however, just about everything – certainly every platform, base and headquarters – will be seen and thus be susceptible to being hit and destroyed (unless there are substantial defenses and hardening of those assets).

Imagining all this underscores, of course, that we must take innumerable actions to transform our forces and systems. We must deter future conflict by ensuring that there are no questions about our capabilities or our willingness to employ them – and also by doing everything possible to ensure that competition among great powers does not turn into conflict among them.

The NATO description of being suffering from brain death due to Putin has turned out to be a bit premature.

Petraeus: All of the above and more. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.

Petraeus: Not at all. Russia still has enormous military capacity and is certainly still a nuclear superpower, as well as a country with enormous energy, mineral and agricultural blessings. It is the third largest country in Europe with a population of over 120 million, second only to Germany, which has more than 80 million.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How Does a Large Russian Population For Russia Affect the War in Ukraine? An Analysis from the Situation Room at the Kremlin White House

It is led by a dictator who embraces many grievances and views that cause him to have a hard time making decisions.

Bergen: You know the observation sometimes attributed to Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Will a larger population for Russia affect the war in Ukraine over the long term?

It is said that as much as 300,000 new recruits are being sent to the frontlines, with up to 100,000 more on the way. And that is not trivial – because quantity does, indeed, matter.

Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, while it’s not clear that many of the Russians are from ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation.

All of those technologies have proven very important and the Ukrainians have demonstrated enormous skill in adapting various technologies and commercial applications.

In fact, the Ukrainians have also shown exceptional abilities to “McGyver” solutions for a variety of problems – whether adapting Western missiles for use on MiG-29 fighter aircraft, repairing battle-damaged armored vehicles left on the battlefield by the Russians (remember the Ukrainians’ “tractor army”), or jamming Russian communications.

However, having sat around the Situation Room table in the West Wing of the White House, I know that it is far easier to second-guess from the outside than it is to make tough calls in office. I would really like to see us provide additional capabilities sooner than later, such as advanced drones, even longer range precision missiles, and fighter aircraft.

Eventually, for example, Ukraine is going to have to transition from eastern bloc aircraft (e.g., MiG-29s) to western ones (e.g., F-16s). There just aren’t any more MiGs to provide to them, and they reportedly have more pilots than aircraft at this point.

So, we might as well begin the process of transition, noting that it will take a number of months, regardless, to train pilots and maintenance personnel. I believe that the Administration has done a great job and done its job well in this particular situation, which will have important ramifications for other situations around the world.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How Ukrainian War Ends the Siege of Taiwan: What do the Chinese Think about the Moskva? What do they think of the Russians?

Bergen: The quasi-private Wagner Group is the force that Putin sends into the meat grinder of the toughest battles. There are a lot of people, many of which are convicts, who are mercenaries.

Petraeus: What Russia has done with what are, in essence, mercenaries, as you note, is somewhat innovative – but also essentially inhumane, as it entails throwing soldiers (many of them former convicts) into battle as cannon fodder, and with little, if any, concern for their survival.

Bergen: What are the lessons of Ukraine for the Chinese if they were to stage an invasion of Taiwan, which would not be over a neighboring land border but over a 100-mile body of water? Does the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea navy, reshape how the Chinese might think about this question?

And especially if the target of such an operation has a population willing to fight fiercely for its survival and be supported by major powers – not just militarily but with substantial economic, financial, and personal sanctions and export controls.

Petraeus: I think it is. This is the first war in which smartphones and social media have been so widely available and also so widely employed. The result is unprecedented transparency and an extraordinary amount of information available – all through so-called “open sources.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

War, Security, and Operations in Ukraine: From the Iraq War to the Early Post-World War II: How Do We Expect to See the Results?

Beyond that, I believe we will see Ukrainian forces that are much more capable than the Russians at achieving the kind of combined arms effects that I described earlier and that thus enable much more effective offensive operations and can unhinge some of the Russian defenses. We may not see all this, however, until the spring or even summer, given the amount of time required for Ukrainian forces to receive and train on the new western tanks and other systems.

Bergen: In 2003, at the beginning of the Iraq War, you famously asked a rhetorical question: “Tell me how this ends?” How does the war in Ukraine end?

Also when Ukraine reaches the limits of its ability to withstand missile and drone strikes, getting a Marshall-like plan (developed by the US and G7) to help rebuild the country, and gaining an ironclad security guarantee (either NATO membership or, if that is not possible, a US-led coalition guarantee).

The administration refers to the meaning of President Biden’s State of theUnion pledge to support Ukraine as long as it takes according to The Post. It quotes an administration official saying, “‘As long as it takes’ pertains to the amount of conflict,” but “it doesn’t pertain to the amount of assistance.”

This is a dangerous notion. Despite the remarkable success of the Ukrainian military thus far, pushing Ukraine to mount a premature offensive could have catastrophic results. It will take time for Ukraine to receive the deliveries of advanced Western tanks, for example. And deploying those tanks before Ukrainian soldiers are fully trained and before Ukraine has a maintenance infrastructure in place could result in unacceptable losses and squandered resources.

Rather than press Ukraine to undertake offensive operations, the administration and Democratic and Republican congressional allies must impress upon the American public the extraordinary high stakes for America in the outcome of a war fought so many thousands of miles from our shores.

On the first day of the invasion, a large Russian helicopter assault force seized an airfield outside of the capital city of Kyiv, threatening to make it a decisive bridge for the invading force to surge further reinforcements.

The following night, Ukrainian special forces, supported by accurate artillery, penetrated the base, killed dozens of Russian paratroopers and disabled the runway. The Russian concept of operations was in trouble in its very first phase.

This action underscored Zelensky’s determination (“I need ammunition, not a ride,” he said as he rejected an offer from the United States of evacuation from Kyiv), as did the defiance of a small detachment on Snake Island with their vernacular retort to a Russian warship, a gesture that became a national meme within hours.

On the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has more pressing needs than battle tanks. During a CNN team’s two-week tour of frontline positions, one refrain echoed time and again: “We need shells.”

One lesson the Russians have learned is to place logistics hubs beyond the reach of strikes, so the timing of GLSDB deliveries and of longer-range systems promised by the UK to Ukraine is all-important – to defeat mass with precision.

The first GLSDBs won’t arrive until this fall, likely missing Russian and Ukrainian offensives that will determine the war’s future trajectory, according to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

The Russian air force is largely missing in action so far, so Western officials think it will become an important part of the Russian battle plan. Lloyd Austin said last week that Russia had a lot of capability left and a large number of aircraft in its inventory.

A senior US military official told us last week that it was likely more aspirational than realistic with Russian forces moving before they were ready due to political pressure.

There is nothing left to fight for the Russians in this conflict, and they only have one way of doing it. We’ve seen this in Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna and above all Mariupol.

The stakes for the Kremlin were raised if a counter-attack by the Ukrainian forces were able to push southwards through Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol.

Russia’s lines are deeper and denser than they were a few months ago, so Ukraine needs to integrate tanks, fighting vehicles and other hardware to break through them.

It is possible, perhaps even likely, that after a burst of fury this spring the conflict will settle into a violent stasis, with little ground changing hands amid relentless attrition and high casualties.