The Electric Vehicle Puzzle: Why Does the Electric Vehicle Industry Grow so Fast in the First Half of the 2021-2019 Collision? An Analysis by Cox Automotive
It will be difficult to grade this part of the plan, Andy. On top of this, Tesla still doesn’t have a $25,000 vehicle — let alone a $35,000 car to fulfill the affordable EV segment. It appears to be going to the Chevy Bolt EV, EUV and Nissan Leafs of the world.
A popular misconception has emerged about Elon Musk and Tesla: The megabillionaire’s love affair with Twitter is the main reason Tesla shares have lost so much value this year.
There are reasons to think that the EV surge can continue. The top global automakers have a plan to spend over $1 trillion to produce 54 million electric vehicles by the end of the decade. Governments have promised to spend billions on infrastructure. Battery makers have pledged billions in factory startup costs.
Thirteen percent of all passenger vehicle sales are battery electric, plug-in hybrid, or fuel cell in the first half of the year. Still, the growth is uneven, with Germany (26 percent), the UK (24 percent), and China (23 percent) leading the way. 7 percent of the passenger vehicles sold in the US in the first half of the year were zero emission.
Matt Degen of Cox automotive said that it was not your eyes tricking you. For the longest time, the majority of the electric vehicles on the road were cars from the brand name company, but now they are hardly the only game.
It’s unclear exactly why 5% seems to mark the point where EV sales really take off. It could be that it marks the level at which something begins to seem normal. The overall US market share for Hyundai, for example, is about the same as the market share for electric vehicles, according to Cox Automotive, and buying a Hyundai doesn’t seem like anything weird or unusual. It’s getting to be the same for electric vehicles: It’s no longer uncommon to see them on the roads which makes it easier to consider getting one.
The Mustang Mach-E, which hit the market in in 2021, was the first electric vehicle to take a notable chunk of Tesla’s still-dominant EV market share. Ford is struggling to make enough to meet demand. Ford made every one of the 150,000 Mach-Es they have produced for specific customer orders, and none of them were built just to fill dealer lots, said the company’s vice president of electric vehicle programs.
The Electric Vehicle Year 2019: Where are we going? Where do we stand, and how do we get there? How many electric vehicles are on the market?
“We could sell it out at least two or three times over,” he said. We have decided against launching more global markets because we are sold out.
In 2019, there were 11 EV models selling more than 1,000 units, according to Kelley Blue Book. There were 26 this year. There are already EV’s on the market and the new designs by the two Korean companies, the Ioniq 5 and EV6, are not terribly exciting. Rivian rolled out the R1S and R1T. And General Motors saw a huge run of sales for its Bolt EV and Bolt EUV once they returned to the market following a battery fire recall. Luxury brands like Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Genesis and Volvo have also added EVs to the market.
Less expensive electric vehicles are also getting better with longer driving ranges and faster charging, said Tony Quiroga, editor-in-chief of Car and Driver. Car and Driver awarded the Ioniq 5, which has a starting price of $41,000, the Car and Driver’s Electric Vehicle of the Year.
For example, take gas prices. The spike in costs to fuel up at the pump caused people to think about electric vehicles if they hadn’t thought about them before, said Jessica Caldwell, an industry analyst.
But gas prices have also fallen significantly in recent months, which could reduce the urgency some drivers feel to make the switch to electric in 2023.
The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act is also still unclear. The rules around when electric vehicles can receive tax credits were changed this year. The price of a vehicle and the income of a buyer are limits that are meant to encourage domestic production of electric vehicles and their batteries.
There are high volumes of high volume vehicles, and if a car like the Chevy Bolt, and a car like the Model 3 all qualify, it will be a high volume vehicle.
As sales grew by percentage, a record number of cars was delivered by the company last year. The last quarter was no different, but it was the same as throughout the rest of the year.
Morgan Stanley still believes the company is somewhat undervalued as a result of the big recent sell-offs, citing its head start over the electric car competition, and potential tax advantages as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act passed earlier this year.
The End of Musk’s Wealth and the Next-Generation Autoplushics Reinvestigation Power: The Story of a Great Hero
The losses, however, have further put a dent in the fortunes of one of the world’s richest people. Musk’s wealth has fallen by half this year as he is now worth $132 billion, less than at the beginning of the year. He lost the title of richest man in the world two weeks ago to Bernard Arnault.
“I think there is going to be some macro drama that’s higher than people currently think,” he said, according to Reuters, adding that homes and cars will get “disproportionately impacted” by economic conditions.
With a 50% sales growth target, the valuation was driven by that. It conceded in October that it will miss that sales target for this year.
“It got ahead of itself in the near-term,” said Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, another Tesla fan. “I still believe this can be a much bigger company. I think it will see those kinds of numbers again. But it could take a long, long time to get there.”
The stock has risen by 743% in 2020 alone due to Musk’s reputation as a genius who would disrupt the massive global auto industry.
After several delays, and more than three years since it was first announced, Musk says deliveries of the Cybertruck will start this summer. In the meantime, people are moving on to electric pickup trucks that are actually on the road, including the Rivian R1T and Ford’s F-150 Lightning. The Chevy Silverado EV is likely to reach customers before the Cybertruck.
Gordon Johnson is one of the largest critics ofTesla, and he said that Musk has a problem with the truth. “When people say he’s a genius and innovator, it’s based on all his promises he never lives up to.”
The new generation of vehicle will be focused on affordability and desirability according toTesla’s vice president of vehicle engineering. It will be built at a new factory near Monterrey, Mexico and will be the company’s sixth battery and electric vehicle plant. Executives said the next-gen vehicle would have a 40 percent smaller manufacturing footprint and would cut production costs by 50 percent.
Has Tesla sold its shares in 2022? A frustrated investor’s frustration at the Tesla sales and inventory woes in the U.S.
He said demand in the US has collapsed. You had a wait time of two or three months. You will be able to get one immediately. They’re going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter. It is the definition of excess capacity.
Musk promised during a call on hisspace last week that he was not going to sell any shares ofTSLA until at least at least 2024, if not beyond. But he hasn’t lived up to a previous promise in April that he was done selling Tesla
(TSLA) shares, selling $14.4 billion of that stock since that time.
It has been a bad situation for Musk, who says he is done selling stock. He is a man investors want to watch walk the walk and not just talk the talk.
Yet the fourth quarter underwhelmed: Tesla delivered only 405,278 vehicles, well below the median estimate of 431,000 according to analysts polled by Refinitiv, as recession fears and higher interest rates led to a slowdown in demand.
There was evidence of waning car buyers interest inTeslas when the company announced a rare sale in an effort to clear out inventory. The discount of $3,750 for buyers taking delivery of a vehicle by the end of the year was initially increased to $8,000 then it was doubled to $12,500 two weeks later.
In a statement released on Monday, the company thanked its customers and employees for their help in achieving a great 2022, in light of Covid and supply chain related challenges.
“We continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds which again led to a further increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter,” the statement read.
Videos posted to social media show crowds at delivery centers in other cities, suggesting a bigger consumer backlash.
Analysts have said Tesla’s move was likely to boost its sales, which tumbled in December, and force other EV makers to cut prices too at a time of faltering demand in the world’s largest market for battery-powered cars.
“It may be a normal business practice but this is not how a responsible enterprise should behave,” said one Tesla owner protesting at the company’s delivery center in Shanghai’s Minhang suburb on Saturday who gave his surname as Zhang.
He and the other owners ofTesla were angry about the abrupt price cut and lack of explanation for recent buyers.
Are Tesla’s High-Passenger-Density Urban Transport Master Plans Ever Successful? The Case of the Shanghai Demonstration
A large police presence was seen at all the demonstrations, and at the Shanghai protest a group of police officers were visible.
Protests are not a rare occurrence in China, which has over the years seen people come out in large numbers over issues such as financial or property scams, but authorities have been on higher alert after widespread protests in Chinese cities and top universities at the end of November against Covid-19 restrictions.
A video that was verified to be filmed in the southwestern city of Chengdu showed a crowd chanting “Return the money, refund our cars.”
BillRusso, head of Automobility Ltd, said that there is no other country in the world that faces the kind of competitors they have in China.
In 2021, Tesla faced a public relations storm after an unhappy customer climbed on a car at the Shanghai auto show to protest against the company’s handling of her complaints about her car’s brakes.
Tesla’s previous two master plans were mostly hit-or-miss. The first plan set out a number of goals but the second plan doesn’t have a majority of them achieved.
Andrew: All of this is certainly true. But to me, the biggest failure of the Master Plan Part Deux is building our hopes up for “high passenger-density urban transport” and then never delivering. That was rude! Musk didn’t have to be so specific! He mentioned that there were two vehicles that were going to be revealed next year: a bus and a semi truck. Musk has been open about his dislike for public transportation. He admitted to his biographer that he originally proposed the idea of the hyperloop as a backhanded way to get California legislators to cancel the state’s high-speed rail plan. The guy hates trains.
There is a new era of sustainable energy that we need to contend with before we can even think about it, but before we can start that, we need to contend with the failures of the previous two master plans. Did Musk accomplish what he set out to do? Or did his ambitions get the better of him? How well did Musk master his own plans?
Umar: Yup, and instead Musk got infatuated with the idea of Teslas going down city street-level elevators and riding in underground tunnels dug by his Boring Company dozers. But even that idea was watered down — it’s now just Teslas rolling through really tight tunnels.
Can you buy a Tesla solar roof today? Yes, you can. The solar products account for less than 5% of the company’s revenues due to the slow roll out. In 2021, dozens of solar roof customers were shocked to find that Tesla was jacking up the prices on them, sometimes as much as 100 percent. Since leaving several major markets and drastically cutting down on installations, the company has scaled back on its solar ambitions.
The long-awaited truck from Musk should go into volume production this year. Given the spike in sightings of preproduction Cybertrucks on the roads around Fremont, it seems likely we’ll see a production version during this investor event.
There is no certainty as to the plans for fully automated vehicles byTesla. A $15,000 option called Full Self-Driving has been rolled out by the company, which is different from the approach used by other operators like Cruise and Waymo. Despite the misleading name, FSD is just a Level 2 partially autonomous system that requires constant monitoring by the driver. Tesla recently paused new installations of FSD after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration called it a “crash risk.”
The Gen 3 platform will cost half as much as the Model 3 and Model Y platforms. It will be smaller than those vehicles, but Musk is predicting that it will eventually surpass the production of all our other vehicles combined.
The plan, which was posted in 2016 under the title ” Part Deux”, said that the company’s goal is to create a thriving solar business, introduce multiple new vehicles, achieve full autonomy, and establish a robo taxi network for vehicle owners to earn up to $30,000 annually.
The Cybertruck has some major changes, like a boxier version and a big ass windshield implemation. The electric pickups race is wide open, and with no production yet, there is enormous pressure onTesla to start.
The first Master Plan had a big impact on the automotive industry as it was initially content with experimental EVs or ones designed just to earn compliance in the state of California. The Nissan Leaf is a monster, and the Ford Focus Electric is a conversion of a normal car, but I like both of them.
We were promised a $35,000 car, which could have made it possible for us to make a truly affordable car. But instead, the initial 2017–2018 models were priced at $52,000-plus, with a promise of cheaper models to follow. A $35,000 Model 3 would eventually become available but only for a few months and for special order (plus they did some weird interior strippage in an attempt to make it cheaper). But I’m sure it cost more due to economies of scale on a low-volume trim.
Testing Musk’s Master Plan for a Cybertruck, Part II: Accidents, Collisions, and Disruption in a Model X
It nearly bankrupted the company, and Musk arguably pushed his workforce to an extreme to get what he wanted. It worked, but the cost was pretty enormous, at least for the employees. In the lawsuits filed against Tesla, there are examples of horrible working conditions, including racism, gender discrimination, and on-the- job injuries.
Overall, I give Master Plan Part Deux a C-. The charging network backs up some of the cars that were made by tesla. The Cybertruck is still MIA. If you comprehend that you are a conductor of the system and need to pay attention to the road, autopilot will work well. Full-Self Driving is capable, but it’s only a hat trick. It’s likely that every car on the road today will not be arobotaxi. Oh, and solar roofs and power walls exist, I guess.
Andrew: Moving on to the second Master Plan, or “Part Deux,” as Musk called it. (Assumedly a reference to the 1993 movie Hot Shots! Part Deux. Musk loves himself some ’80s / ’90s movie references. See: gross mode.
So Tesla started producing the Model X at volume by the time Part Deux came about, which was more spacious for families but built on the same platform as the S. It is more expensive than the S but it is not everyones cup of tea because of the showy falcon wing doors and front-wheel drive. Context is all that matters in this case.
There are accidents and mechanical failures that can be caused by those doors. Heck, I was watching The Late Late Show With James Corden on Monday night, and Joel McHale was on as a guest. He talked about how his Model X FWDs (sorry) were left open and crashed on the side of his garage — on two separate occasions! Those sorts of incidents aren’t unique, though. I test-drove a Model X and somehow, while parked, the wing tried to close without command and smacked my sister’s head until she moved.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/1/23620222/tesla-elon-musk-master-plan-cybertruck-investor-day
Does The Tesla Model X Stop and Accelerate at a Red Light, or Does It Really Mean That Your Autonomous Driving is Something You Can’t Do?
Andrew: We have a solar roof division which is an extremely scaled-back one, a mythical Cybertruck, a handful of semi trucks, no urban transport, and a tunnel project which is mostly smoke and mirrors. Oh, right:
Could FSD eventually lead to fully autonomous driving? Color me skeptical. Let’s not forget that the video released in 2016 showing a Tesla Model X driving on urban, suburban, and highway streets, stopping itself at a red light, and accelerating at a green light was staged. It is not currently available to consumers, but the director of the video testified that it was staged using 3D mapping.
Alex Roy, a rally driver and host of the Cannonball Run, once said “Can I sleep in it?” when asked about a self-driving car. Self-driving isn’t something that you can do. A conclusion to the story. My god, please don’t do this, because some of the owners of theTesla have tried sleeping in their vehicles.
Umar said, “This was a sign too many people ignored.” Andy, I am in agreement with most of what you said. Musk has absolutely oversold Full-Self Driving as something it is not. But the real red flag should have been his pitch about robotaxis in which your Tesla can go out and make you money while you’re working your real job. Musk said the owners of theTesla robotaxis would make up to $30,000 a year.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/1/23620222/tesla-elon-musk-master-plan-cybertruck-investor-day
The Tesla Master Plan for 2020: Comment on a Glimpse into the Future of Energy Efficiency and the Way Forward in the 21st Century
Andrew: That’s a very generous grade. Part Deux would get a D-. These things are unavoidable because of the many failed promises, too many risk, and a dangerous confluence of an active safety feature with full autonomy. The objectives of the Master Plan are noble and well-intentioned. Maybe they could have been achieved under a different set of circumstances.
There’s nothing wrong with having some ambition. But when the follow-through has been so hit-or-miss, with more misses than hits, then those ambitions can curdle, and anything that comes after can just feel like hot air blowing in your face.
Tesla projects it will take $10 trillion in investments to bring about this sustainable future powered by renewable energy. Musk said it’s “not a big number relative to the global economy.”
“There is a clear path to a sustainable energy on Earth,” Musk said. It does not need to destroy natural habitats. It doesn’t mean that we have to stop using electricity and just chill out in the cold.
The nearly three-hour-long event didn’t include any specific information about new vehicles. The company did tease two mystery vehicles that remained under wraps in the presentation images — including one that is clearly a smaller car and the other that looks like a small commercial truck.
Musk implied that the third master plan would attempt to connect his various ventures, but no mention was made of The Boring Company or his other companies.
The Unboxed Process: Tesla’s Next Generation of Vehicles and its Promise to Become a Robotic Axi Service
Tesla demonstrated a new, more efficient vehicle manufacturing process, which will be used for its next generation of vehicles. The company calls it the “Unboxed Process,” which allows vehicles to be built once in the assembly line and only the parts that need to be painted. The drive unit will not use any rare earth minerals, according to the automaker.
Likewise, Musk’s promise that Tesla owners with FSD would be able to earn passive income by sending their vehicles to autonomously pick up passengers as a robotaxi service has failed to materialize. In recent months, Musk’s proposal that the cars on the road today could qualify for such a service has been thrown into doubt.
The plan talked about decarbonizing the global electric grid and all industry, shipping and air travel as well.
Lots of researchers, analysts and nonprofit groups have charted out paths to combat climate change. Most emphasize that time is running out, and the scale of change required is daunting.
The software update that automatically adjusts air suspension mid-drive was boasted of by the company as a way to cut costs on Supercharger stations by preassembling entire stations and dropping them down from a crane, rather than installing each station individually on location.
The popularity of teslas remains popular with drivers. The company just won the top award for “Overall Loyalty” to a make in S&P Global Mobility’s Automotive Loyalty Awards. In general, returning car shoppers stick with their previous brand about 50% of the time. For Tesla buyers, a solid two-thirds return to Tesla.
Why aren’t Apple and Musk so big? A comment on Musk and Caldwell in a note to investors on M3 Master Plan 3
You’ll get the Apple Watch for having an Apple device, such as an iPad or a MacBook. the infrastructure is built there,” he says.
17 company executives gave presentations focusing on everything from design to supply chains and manufacturing to environmental impacts and legal affairs, but they didn’t give any details on the vehicle.
“The much-anticipated theme of Master Plan 3 left me with more questions than answers,” Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said in a note to investors.
Jessica Caldwell, the executive director of insights atEdmunds, said in an email that Musk and the company failed to put the cherry on top.