US-China Interactions at Sea, Air and Air: Bringing the U.S. into the Milley Regime after a Laser Collision

CNN reported last week that Milley ordered a wide-ranging review of US military contacts with the Chinese forces over the last five years as concerns about Beijing’s assertive behavior in the region increases.

“The volume, the number of Chinese intercepts at sea and in the air have increased significantly over five years,” Milley said, though he offered no further details on the figure.

As Nancy Pelosi prepares to lead a congressional delegation to Taiwan, Milley comments underscore the Biden administration’s effort to counter China as a key strategic priority.

President Biden said that the military believed a trip by Pelosi and other lawmakers would pose security risks. The Pentagon has declined to say if officials have directly briefed the California Democrat, but officials say worries include China establishing a no-fly zone or increasing unsafe intercepts of US and allied ships and aircraft in the Pacific region.

The aim of the review is to get a full, detailed understanding of all interactions between the two militaries, especially if Chinese aircraft are too close to US military assets.

The Australian government said in February that a Chinese boat used a laser to illuminate an Australian Air Force jet, and that there was a serious safety incident.

“Acts like this have the potential to endanger lives,” the Australian Defence Force said in a statement at the time, adding it strongly condemns the “unprofessional and unsafe military conduct.” Pilots targeted by laser attacks in the past have reported disorienting flashes, pain, spasms and spots in their vision and even temporary blindness.

A Deputy Secretary of State for the U.S. and the South China Sea: China’s Defense Modernization and Joint Air Patrol and Strike Exercises

In a speech to the Suli-La Dialogue, Austin made it clear that indo-Pacific countries shouldn’t be harassed by maritime militias.

China frequently challenges military aircraft from the U.S. and its allies in the South China Sea. In 2001 a Chinese plane was lost and a pilot died in an in-air collision.

The US is not willing to recognize these territorial claims in the South China Sea and conducts freedom of navigation operations there.

It added that a total of 71 Chinese aircraft were spotted around the island, and that Taiwan’s military have responded by tasking combat air patrol aircrafts, navy vessels, and land-based missile systems.

The newest activities came as the Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said Sunday it conducted joint combat readiness patrol and “strike drills” around Taiwan, in response to “provocations” between Taiwan and the United States, without providing specific details.

The Taiwanese defense ministry said in a statement Sunday night that it has confidence in its sovereignty. “The actions of the Chinese Communist Party highlighted its mentality of using force to resolve differences, which undermines regional peace and stability,” it said.

On Friday, US President Joe Biden signed a sweeping new defense bill into law that included the establishment of a defense modernization program for Taiwan to deter Chinese aggression.

“The cooperation between Taiwan and the United States will help safeguard a free, open and stable Indo-Pacific region. The military will continue to improve their military readiness based on threats and needs.

The US Navy reported an increase in unsafe intercepts by Chinese fighter jets last summer and in December 2022, when a Chinese fighter jet flew just 20 feet from the nose of a US Air Force RC-135 patrol plane over international waters. It was five weeks ago that President Biden and President XI of China met for the first time after the G20 Summit, where they promised new mechanisms to stabilizing the bilateral relationship.

China has previously halted talks about climate cooperation due to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, but is now expected to resume the talks as part of a larger set of agreements between Biden and Xi.

Two Japanese Aircraft Emitting on a U.S. RC-135 Rivet Joint and Deciding to Avoid a Collision Near the Senkaku Islands

Last Friday, China also conducted a series of military drills close to Japan’s southern Okinawa island in the Pacific Ocean, according to Japanese authorities.

The Chinese navy’s Liaoning aircraft carrier, as well as two destroyers and a frigate, sailed about 560 kilometers (about 348 miles) east of Kitadaito Island, located off Okinawa’s east coast, on December 21, according to Japan’s Joint Staff. The vessels also sailed roughly 120 kilometers (74 miles) east of Okinotorishima, located further southeast, on December 22.

Then on Friday, around 180 carrier-based fighter jets and helicopters took off and landed on the Liaoning aircraft carrier, according to Japan’s defense ministry.

Two escort ships were dispatched by the Japanese Ministry of Defense and self-defense forces to collect information and carry out warning and surveillance.

Tensions between China and Japan have also been rising steadily, with Beijing growing its naval and air forces in areas near Japan. The Senkaku Islands are a group of islands in the East China Sea.

A month ago this month, Japan unveiled a new national security plan that called for doubling defense spending and changing the country’s constitution to face growing threats from Russia, China and North Korea.

Performing what the US military deemed an “unsafe maneuver,” a Chinese navy J-11 fighter jet flew within 20 feet of the nose of a US RC-135 Rivet Joint, an unarmed reconnaissance plane with about 30 people on board, forcing the US plane to take “evasive maneuvers to avoid a collision,” according to a statement from the US Indo-Pacific Command issued on December 28.

Video of the incident from INDOPACOM shows the J-11 flying off the nose of the RC-135. As the two aircraft draw closer, a defense official said it is “unlikely” the Chinese jet could have maintained a safe visual separation from the larger, heavier American aircraft, which was maintaining its course and speed. The RC-135 avoided a collision by descending away from the Chinese jet.

U.S.-China relations are already on edge after the U.S. shot down a large, high-altitude balloon on Feb. 4 that it says was set aloft by China and which a State Department official says was part of a “fleet” of Chinese military balloons designed to conduct surveillance. China said it was a balloon that got lost.

“The U.S. Indo-Pacific Joint Force is dedicated to a free and open Indo-Pacific region and will continue to fly, sail and operate at sea and in international airspace with due regard for the safety of all vessels and aircraft under international law,” the statement said.

The accusation is also complicated by how China defines its airspace, especially given its contested territorial claims in the South China Sea, experts say.

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Why does the Chinese jet get so close to the American plane? Defense experts say it’s too dangerous for an air-to-air interception when it is necessary to visually identify an aircraft

Aviation and military experts contacted by CNN who watched the two videos said it appeared the Chinese jet was firmly in the wrong and had no reason to get as close as it did to the American plane.

“The 135 is an unarmed aircraft. Why does the PLAN consider it necessary to intercept carrying missiles when the intent was to visually identify the aircraft? Doing this is potentially dangerous and could lead to a major and tragic incident,” Layton said.

“The intent of the interception was presumably to visually identify the aircraft and the fighter could have stayed several miles away and competed that task. Getting close doesn’t bring any gains, he said.

There could be another danger that could lead to escalation. As seen in the US video, the Chinese aircraft is armed with air-to-air missiles.

The US military risked blowing the incident out of proportion by saying the US jet had to take evasive maneuvers, a term that is “overly dramatic”, according to him.

The same is true of adjusting her position to avoid a lane incursion by another driver. The US response is pure theatre and creates an exaggerated sense of danger.

It is not safe to fly aircraft close to one another at 500 miles per hour, according to a defense policy expert.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/china/us-china-south-china-sea-intercept-intl-hnk-mic-ml/index.html

The China-American Interference Crisis: Resolving the 2002-2003 South China Sea Missing Airborne Event with a Heavy-Ion Collision

ThePLA effectively destroyed any kind of hotline or discussion forums for addressing potential incidents with the United States. If an intercept does go wrong, there are fewer options than ever for senior officers to limit potential escalation,” he said.

But in a regular press briefing on Friday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the incident was just the latest in a string of US provocations that threaten stability in the region.

The Chinese Southern Theater Command stated that the US aircraft was flying near the southern coastline of China and the Paracels where Beijing has built up military installations.

In 2001, the most notable incident occurred in the northern part of the South China Sea where a Chinese fighter jet hit a US plane, killing the American pilot and causing a major crisis as the damaged US plane barely managed a safe landing on Chinese territory. The US crew was freed after 11 days of negotiations.

Editor’s Note: Beth Sanner is a former deputy director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration, a position where she oversaw the elements that coordinate and lead collection, analysis, and program oversight throughout the Intelligence Community. In this role she also served as the president’s intelligence briefer. She is a professor-of-practice at the Applied Research Lab for Intelligence and Security at the University of Maryland and a CNN national security analyst. The opinions expressed in the commentary are hers alone. CNN has more opinion on it.

On Monday, Beijing accused Washington of “illegally” flying high-altitude balloons over its airspace more than 10 times since last year, calling the US the “world’s largest surveillance empire.”

The Chinese seized a US Navy underwater vehicle in international waters in the South China Sea, which was just 50 nautical miles from Subic Bay in the Philippines. Although Subic Bay was the largest US naval base in Asia before disagreements over lease costs resulted in a withdrawal in 1992, US sailors may return to the base after Manila agreed to allow a greater US military presence in the Philippines. The incident was widely believed to have been a message to President-elect Donald Trump, just two weeks before his inauguration and several weeks after he angered Beijing by taking a congratulatory call from Taiwan’s president. Beijing agreed to return the craft three days later, but never apologized and accused the US of spying.

Then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin laid blame for the collision on the US. Nearly two months elapsed before the two sides reached agreement for the return of the aircraft. Having removed and refused to return the plane’s hardware, software and communications equipment, the Chinese insisted the EP-3 be dismantled and transported by a third party at the US’s expense. Beijing also tried to charge the Bush Administration $1 million for costs associated with the incident, including expenses for detaining the plane’s crew. Washington countered with an offer of some $34,000 it said was a “fair figure” — money China refused — and never apologized.

Lawmakers have expressed outrage at China over the balloon — and also at the Biden administration for not shooting it down sooner. U.S. officials have said that the balloon’s limited abilities and the lack of an immediate threat, especially compared to the potential for danger to people or objects on the ground, factored into the decision to wait to take down the balloon.

If you listen closely, you can already hear the war drums beating, and I’m waiting for the hyperbole to reach new heights as we move closer to the 2024 election: who will be the toughest on China of them all? But let’s not let China-bashing become a new brand of McCarthyism, particularly when considering the already-dangerous rise in anti-Asian rhetoric and violence reported in the US in recent years.

Let’s come up with a plan to hold China accountable while also letting for needed dialogue. If we follow Beijing’s lead it will surely be a race to the bottom, making it harder to avoid what we all wish to avoid — military conflict with China.

The FBI seized a high-altitude object over Alaska from the coast of South Carolina, but it was not shot down by the Pentagon

President Joe Biden told CNN that the shoot down a “high-altitude object” hovering over Alaska on Friday “was a success,” shortly after American national security officials disclosed that the commander-in-chief gave the US military approval to take the action.

Less than a week after the US shot down a Chinese spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina, American fighter jets took down another object that was flying over US airspace.

“The Department of Defense was tracking a high-altitude object over Alaska airspace in the last 24 hours,” National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby announced to the press on Friday.

The object’s capabilities, purpose or origin were not stated by the Defense Department. He noted that the object was about the size of a small car and not comparable to the high altitude balloon that crashed off the coast of South Carolina.

Two different attempts were made to get closer to the object and evaluate it as it flew. Fighter aircraft engaged in a series of battles late Thursday night and Friday morning. Kirby told reporters that both engagements yielded limited information.

We were able to get fighter aircrafts up and around it, before the order to shoot it down, so that the pilots could see this was not manned.

The military was directed by Biden to down the object by the Pentagon. The object was brought down by fighter aircraft assigned to US Northern Command. Near the Canadian border and northeastern Alaska it went down. The US is supposed to recover the debris.

The Alaska Command coordinated the operation with help from the Alaskan Air National Guard, Federal Aviation Administration and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The Deadhorse Balloon: A Failure of Coordination in the Chinese-US System During the Xi Jinping Era

“We’re calling this an object because that’s the best description we have right now. Kirby said they don’t know who owns it or whether it is a state-owned or corporate-owned company.

The object came to the attention of the US government. Biden was first briefed Thursday night “as soon as the Pentagon had enough information,” Kirby said.

Kirby said the object was at the mercy of prevailing winds, which made it much less predictable.

The Federal Aviation Administration issued a temporary flight restriction Friday in the area around Deadhorse, Alaska, as the military took action against the object.

Questions have been raised about the handling of a suspected Chinese spy balloon which was shot down off the coast of the Carolinas.

While the president has stood by how he and his administration handled that balloon, he has faced criticism from Republicans for allowing the suspected spy balloon to float over much of the country before shooting it down.

The balloon’s prolonged incursion into U.S. airspace prompted the Pentagon to adjust how it is using radar to look for similar activities, resulting in the U.S. detecting — and shooting down — three unidentified objects over the past weekend over Alaska, Canada’s Yukon territory, and Lake Huron.

The assessment was communicated to American lawmakers in briefings Thursday, according to CNN reporting – and if true, could point to what analysts say would be a significant lack of coordination within the Chinese system at a fraught period of China-US relations.

The alternative in this scenario – that Xi was aware that a balloon was being dispatched over the United States ahead of a visit from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing – would raise a separate set of concerns about China’s decision-making in relation to the US.

In its version of the events, China insists the balloon was a Chinese research airship blew off course and denied a broader program.

Beijing, in a statement last weekend, appeared to link the device to “companies,” rather than the government or military – though in China the prominence of state-owned enterprises and a robust military-industrial complex blurs the line between the two.

“The problem with the centralization of power under Xi Jinping is the lack of delegation of authority to lower levels,” said Thompson, who is a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

That means that lower-level officials who may have the capacity to more closely monitor such missions may not be empowered to do so, or not be equipped to make political judgments about their impact, he said. Power struggles between lower and higher ranking officials can complicate communication.

There is a culture of Chinese governance where lower levels fight for their own autonomy, and upper levels fight for more control, according to him.

Past crises in China have pointed to these tensions, including the outbreaks of both SARS in 2002-2003 and more recently Covid-19, where reporting delays were widely seen as having slowed the response and compounded the problem. Local officials who feared repercussions were blamed as they were accustomed to a system where information flows from the top down.

Balloon launches could also fall into a gap in which operations were not managed or overseen in the same way as space or other aircraft missions, according to Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago.

In this case, entities launching balloons may have received “little or no push back from other countries, including the United States” and “increasingly seen such launches as routine based on weather conditions and at modest costs,” Yang said.

The leaders of these programs may not have been given top priority attention from the perspective of political risk as they became more confident in their ability to test new routes.

Did China launch an airspace invasion at the height of the G20 summit in Bali? A Chinese diplomat insists: “Everybody spies’ is not a slogan of China

Alfred, an associate professor, said that the man has a personality that he wants to be in control of. “I don’t think Xi Jinping allows for that kind of autonomy.”

The incident that diverted attention from a faltering economy is something that may have been comfortable for Xi, but he underestimated the US response which resulted in the postponement of the talks.

Washington wants to continue the dialogue that began at the G20 summit in Bali, even though it seems that Xi was unaware of the situation.

“‘Everybody spies’ is a poorly considered trope that does not justify China’s intrusion in other countries’ airspace. He said that the Law of the Sea matters and international law are equally important.

Analysts say that China’s hardline stance has exposed inconsistencies in Beijing’s messaging which has hurt its credibility.

The researcher at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies described China’s claims as “a sort of one-upmanship” to counter accusations from the US.

“It appears more like Beijing is trying to also portray itself as a victim of US surveillance, instead of being painted over the past week as an aggressor,” he said.

A senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore named China’s newest tactic a large case of what-aboutism.

It has been quite confusing. It lacks credibility due to it being mainly directed towards the domestic audience.

The upper limit of the airspace is not entirely settled under international law, complicating the definition of national airspace.

But Koh, the military expert in Singapore, said Beijing doesn’t necessarily draw distinction between national airspace and international airspace in practice.

He said that the Chinese military has been challenging foreign military activities in recent years, including those run by the Filipinos.

At least seven artificial islands were built by China in the South China Sea. According to international law, airspace sovereignty is not given by an artificial island.

The U.S. Air Force Shoots Down Unidentified Aerial Objects During the Concorde Aircraft Experiment

In practice, it generally extends to the maximum height at which commercial and military aircraft operate, according to Rothwell. Concorde, a retired Franco-British supersonic airliner, operated at 60,000 feet (18,300 meters), setting a precedent for how high national airspace may extend to, he said.

The Chinese balloon was hovering at 60,000 feet when it was spotted in Montana, according to US officials, placing it squarely in US airspace. China did not clarify at what altitudes the alleged incursions of US balloons occurred.

Crews using salvage equipment successfully have retrieved important elements of the Chinese balloon that was shot down off the South Carolina coast 10 days ago, the U.S. military says.

“Crews have been able to recover large sections of the structure, including the priority sensor and electronics pieces that were identified,” US Northern Command said.

The recovery operation has included the use of a crane to bring up large pieces of the airship, which was kept aloft by a balloon estimated to be up to 200 feet tall.

The payload’s size has been categorized by Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command or NORAD, as “a jet airliner type of size, maybe a regional jet,” weighing more than 2,000 pounds.

The U.S. blew the balloon out of the sky after it soared over the continental U.S.

Analysts told the Biden administration to not allow the craft to return to China, and to give the US a chance to recover the equipment that was lost in the shootdown.

All of those objects have been described as smaller than the spy balloon. Speaking to reporters on Monday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that while recovery operations for those objects were ongoing, but no debris had been recovered yet.

Kirby said that the National Security Council will probably give new guidance on how to handle unidentified aerial objects objects by the end of the week.

Questions about the recent shooting down of objects by the U.S. military made a classified intelligence briefings for the entire Senate Tuesday morning. That session will be followed by a closed hearing by the Senate Intelligence Committee, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.

The U.S.-China Relations: Implications of a “Spy Balloon” Tweet by the Secretary of State

A trade war, semiconductors, human rights: in recent years, the U.S.-China relationship has been rocked by successive geopolitical crises that have strained the dynamic between two of the world’s most powerful countries.

Less than a day before the Secretary of State’s trip to Beijing, Beijing apologized. The trip was canceled by Washington. China responds by saying no such trip had even been announced.

The US gives information to 40 other countries about the Chinese balloon shoot down. Both chambers of Congress get classified briefings on the incident. The House passes a unanimous resolution condemning China’s alleged surveillance of the U.S.

The White House separately reassured Americans: “There is no indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity with these recent takedowns,” according to the press secretary.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/14/1156731462/china-spy-balloon-timeline-key-dates

Correspondence between the paper Consumption of neutrinoless double beta decay in classical electromagnetism” and Cosmological decay”

Emily reported from Taiwan. Lexie Schapitl reported from Washington, D.C. The report was from Washington, D.C.